Sunday, October 6, 2019

VELLY INTILLESTING

I have received feedback from three senior parliamentarians whose views I respect enormously (including one with family connections into the highest levels of Maoridom) on my prediction that NZ First will seek to cut a deal with Labour to have Kelvin Davis stand aside from his Te Tai Tokerau seat and go List only allowing Shane Jones a virtual guaranteed win and ensuring the survival of NZ First in parliament.

They all agree that Jones cannot and will not win Northland.    Matt King, the National incumbent, has turned the seat back into fortress National.    Even were Labour's Willow Jean Prime (anyone heard of her?) to stand aside from contesting the seat and go List only to be replaced by a Labour no-name nobody (plenty of those) who would confine him/herself to running a Party vote campaign the result would still be the same.   Jones is seen in Pakeha Northland as arrogant, bombastic and an intrinsically lazy person consumed by his own importance.   He is a particular turn-off to female voters.

But what I found particularly interesting was the view that Labour's Maori caucus will have a huge and perhaps deciding role on the decision.   Especially, whether such a deal would in any way dent the Davis' Mana.    Even more interesting that Nanaia Mahuta's opinion will weigh heavily with the other Maori members.    So, in a nutshell, the future of NZF may well be decided by the Kingitanga  movement which, given the antipathy that exists between the Kingtanga and Ngapuhi, could make for an 'energetic' discussion.

11 comments:

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Utu is sweet like kumara.

Max Ritchie said...

For a party committed to doing away with race-based privilege that'd be a 180 degree change. If it happens then I would've thought NZF's share of the vote would mean Jones would be in Parliament by himself.

pdm said...

MaxR - I think you are on the right track there.

The Veteran said...

Max ... actions always speak louder than words. 'They' bailed feekin quickly on their 'hand on heart' promise to do away with the Maori seats when faced with the choice of that or the baubles of office. Why do you think they would do any differently here?

James said...

I also just don’t see Labour wanting to bail out NZF with a ‘dirty deal’. They will surely be excited about the prospect of a Labour / Greens majority government with NZF out of the picture entirely.

The Veteran said...

James ... I don't necessarily disagree with you. I think it would suit Lanour just peachy to see NZF wither on the vine and then rot allowing them, in association with a far more powerful Greens (influence) to pursue a more left leaning agenda.

James said...

I think the ‘deal’ to speculate about or keep an eye on will be which important diplomatic slot will the new Labour/Green govt give to Winston Peters after he fails to get back in and finally retires.

I’m picking High Commissioner to London.

The irony of him accepting this post after railing against such deals when the previous govt did it will be par for the course, naturally.

The Veteran said...

James ... clause 32(a) of the (secret) coalition agreement.

pdm said...

I think the one thing that will ensure such a deal is the very firm grip that Peters has on Arderns short and curlies.

Nothing happens without his say so.

Max Ritchie said...

Vet - I do not think they'll change: my point is doing a deal in Tokerau is an action of a magnitude greater than simply accepting the status quo "We're only 7 percent etc". Note that last election Hobson's Choice hinted that voters should look at NZF if they wanted race-based policies done away with. Having seen the hypocrisy HC is not going to make that mistake again.

Paulus said...

To change anything requires the secret agreement to be adhered to or will Cindy bail and not give up Davis's seat.