Monday, October 14, 2019

A TAIL OF TOO POLES ... OR WHATEVER

Any seasoned (and honest) political observer will see a political poll for what it is ... a snapshot of voter thinking at a point of time.    Far more important is the trend.

Both the Reid and Colmar Brunton polls show National up and Labour down with the CB poll suggesting that, on the numbers, National would govern with the support of ACT.

Lotsa water to flow under the 'bridge(s)' before election day but the trend appears to be towards National with the gloss wearing thin on the fairy princess and, where she goes, Labour goes also.

The Greens are about where I think they should be while Winston First is a tad higher (but still below the 5% threshold) than I expected.

I suspect a certain gnashing of St Jacinda's chompers ... how could the great unwashed abandon me and Labour in this our year of 'delivery' ... physician heal thyself.

Having said all that I stand by my prediction of a 70/30 chance of Labour and the Greens to form the next government ... errrrrrrrrrr maybe 60/40.

11 comments:

pdm said...

One thing that is confirmed by these latest two polls is that the Newshub June poll showing Labour around the 50 mark was way, way out of kilter - a genuine rogue poll.

Therefore the drop off is not quite as significant as touted last night and through today by some commentators and commenters.

Psycho Milt said...

If these two polls tell you anything more than that polling is really expensive and media companies milk them for all they're worth, let's hope no salesmen come knocking at your door. If you need evidence, look no further than how these two polls differed so widely the last time.

Does seem likely that support for the government is down a bit over the last few months - this time, only one of the polls has Labour and the Greens able to govern alone. Don't think Ardern will be having nightmares over that scenario, somehow.

Snowflake said...

FAIRY PRINCESS, ST JACINDA, GLOSS WEARING OFF, CHOMPERS, SLGPTPMCOL!!! Are you some sort of retarded bot? I think these polls have made you all hot and sweaty, you poor old thing. Have a cold shower, perhaps.

Lord Egbut Nobacon said...

Flake....just fuck off...you are being a childish prat...or is it a part of the agenda to get us shouting at each other......oh, and take Wiggo with you, go find another playpen.

Anonymous said...

Vet, I think your odds in favour of a Labour govt post 2020 are way too high. When staunch Labour people I know suggest this current lot have no substance, you know Ardern & Robertson are in trouble.

Paranormal

PS: Egbut, Looked in the mirror lately, you should consider taking your own advice.

The Veteran said...

Real incisive comment from Flake not. I compare that to the more measured one by Psycho Milt who at least takes the time to make an intelligent contribution.

Snowflake said...

When your contribution goes beyond squawking FAIRY PRINCESS, ST JACINDA, CHOMPERS, GLOSS WEARING OFF you’ll get something more substantive “the Veteran”. You’re currently acting out your ADS symptoms, rather than presenting a considered viewpoint.

Noel said...

Early days.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1c/NZ_opinion_polls_2017-2020-majorparties.png

Johno said...

Egbut, you were losing me with that creepy budgie smuggler stuff but have redeemed yourself back into my favourite lefties group with your comment above.

I'm sure you are relieved about that.

The Veteran said...

Flake ... 'considered viewpoint' ... my post was very considered and if you had read it properly rather than engage in your Pavlov dog routine whenever your girl is criticised you might have noticed my election prediction so back off Noddy.

As for content and 'Fairy Princess' ... guilty, except that many of her true believers treat her as one ... not me; 'St Jacinda' ... guilty, except that many of her true believers treat her as one ... not me; 'Chompers' ... guilty, but certainly there to gnash; 'Gloss wearing off' ... not guilty, just repeating the media viewpoint.

You're happy to throw mud at Bridges so don't get prissy and STOP SHOUTING. It upsets the dog ... I'm tone deaf to you anyway.

Unknown said...

Your belief in Labour winning 2020 is very optimstic. Colmar Brunton are always more reliable. A relatively new govt should be miles ahead of a relatively new opposition! Chompers and co will be having kittens. I see Nats on the up and up from here on in as soft voters realise tbis govt is beyond just incompetent! And as the glitter turns to rust on Ardern, so will Labour's poll results. Their ace is becoming transparent. Spades?

Ron