Saturday, May 25, 2019

LET'S TELL IT HOW IT IS

We are being asked to believe the world is waiting with baited breathe for the delivery of Jacinda Ardern's well-being budget so called.    That's the spin and and its all bubble and froth.   Let's put aside the small matter that 'well-being' is just a rebranding of Bill English's social investment budget approach and just reflect where the country is at with the CoL half way through its term.

#1   GDP growth in 2018 shrunk to just 2.3% recording the weakest growth rate since 2013 and down from the 3.8% predicated in the Treasury BIM.

#2    Kiwibuild is Kiwiflop.  Arguably the biggest social policy failure in recent memory.   The 10,000 new homes per year has been re-calibrated into any number between 1 and $10,000 with 100 a good figure.

#3   The health sector is in crisis.   The number of elective surgeries last year dropped by 15,000 with a commensurate increase in waiting times remembering always that the CoL abolished the setting and reporting of key targets.

#4   New job creation is flat.

#5   Violet crime stats to be released on Monday will show a 20% increase in violent offending.   It goes with the territory when you start emptying the jails.

#6   The Reserve Bank has dropped the OCR to just 1.5% indicating a slowing enconomy.

#7   Teachers will go ahead with their mega-strike next week.   The government, having spent the money on vanity projects, can't meet the expectations it raised on the campaign trail.

#8   The 1,800 new police target is in serious trouble.   The attrition rate among existing sworn staff is increasing.

#9   The Zero Carbon Bill, if passed in its present form, will see the farming sector having to cull every fourth cow and the New Zealand economy shrink.

#10  And the big one ... with the government bottling out on its plan to introduce a CGT the promise  to limit borrowing to 20% of GDP has been scrapped.   The new range is between 15-25% read 25% and signals a return to borrow and hope.   The government has run out of dosh.

The government starts from behind the 8 ball and the billiard table surface has some glaring rips in it getting bigger ... and we're supposed to be excited?.

14 comments:

RosscoWlg said...

Pysched Up Milt's contribution..."Coal has always been recognised as an economic indicator of the good health of the economy,,, coal imports are rising in NZ, ergo your stats are crap!

Lord Egbut Nobacon said...

Ahh, I see what is happening now.....in order to raise the taxes to offset 3,7,8 the CGT is has become a part of Nationals manifesto....got it.

1,4,6 can be laid squarely at the door of the current trade uncertainty which is affecting most of the world......why on earth the Trump cheerleaders on this site thought it was a good idea to start a trade war with the EU and China beats me. The biter is being bit.

In the absence of CGT that you slagged off so enthusiastically my question is how would you raise the dosh to fix the infrastructure that has been neglected in the last 11 years.

Kiwi build...yeah I'll go with that.

Tom Hunter said...

...to fix the infrastructure that has been neglected in the last 11 years.

Yeah, yeah. "Centrists" wanking from 12,000 miles away.

Huntly Bypass Flyover, April 2019

Went to the Open Day last October. Tempted to be there on the night it opens late this year.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Legbut, if you knew anything about economics and finance you would know the correct way to finance infrastructure is borrowing, with the debt amortized over the useful life of said infrastructure.

Lord Egbut Nobacon said...

Chunter.....OK so centrist is now an insult, still it's a change from lefty. I notice you are good at sneering but not very good at offering solutions......one could be forgiven for thinking that is troll like behaviour :-)

Adolf......at least you attempt to offer a solution but obviously you and Veteran are at odds how to do it...

"#10 And the big one ... with the government bottling out on its plan to introduce a CGT the promise to limit borrowing to 20% of GDP has been scrapped. The new range is between 15-25% read 25% and signals a return to borrow and hope. The government has run out of dosh."

C'mon guys, some original thinking please

Psycho Milt said...

1, 4. 6: the world affects NZ's economy regardless of who's in government.

2. Fixing National's housing clusterfuck was always going to be a Herculean task, and Kiwibuild wasn't the best way of achieving it. Fortunately it's also not the only thing the government is doing to repair National's mess.

3, 5. Lies, damned lies and statistics. National's spin doctors would like people to look at a particular number, the government will want people to look at different ones. Best leave it to more objective bodies to tell us how well things are going.

7. Basically the same issue as number 2.

8. Meh.

9. [citation needed]. (NB: Nat talking points aren't a citation.)

10. Good. It was stupid of them to tie their hands behind their backs like that, nice to see they've loosened the ropes a bit.

Tom Hunter said...

OK so centrist is now an insult, still it's a change from lefty.
Well of course like the pitiful Liberal Democrats you support, this whole "I'm a Centrist not a Leftist" crap was figured out by the public three decades ago, which is why they've never got far.

And of course in your case you let the cat out of the bag the other day in talking about your beloved France where there's no room for Right-wing stuff because "Lefty" ... is most of France.... Shock revelation there from our man on the ground.

For gods sake man, just stand up and say that anybody who thinks the state owning less than 100% of the means of production is a raging Right winger - like you. Hell, Trump loves Medicare and Social Security in the US; a Centrist just like you, if that's the definition.

notice you are good at sneering
Thanks, but actually it's a natural response to braindead soundbites like the one you blurted on infrastructure. Tell you what: next time engage a few of the marbles you've still got rolling around in your skull and make a more precise criticism and I won't sneer at it.

As you can see I'm pretty good at being rude and uncivil as well when required. But of course you're not exactly backward in coming forward on those fronts, except that you then go around whinging and snivelling about your opponents being such, and pretending that you're some sort of White Knight on these terms.

до скорого!

Lord Egbut Nobacon said...

ooh, a bit touchy today dearie....calling one a centrist wanker is hardly the way to endear yourself to the reading public or start a debate.....must have hit a nerve with my troll comment.

Never mind, there is still time to answer the question before Andrie starts on the T34 tank.

Still waiting Veteran....if National took over tomorrow how would they raise the funds? Which services would they cut to the bone that is the usual Tory trick isn't it?

Tom Hunter said...

ooh, a bit touchy today dearie - Egbut The Birther

As usual you're projecting again. How many times is it now that you've told me to SFTU about your beloved EU?

calling one a centrist wanker is hardly the way to endear yourself to the reading public or start a debate

I don't recall calling you a wanker. It seemed inappropriate after you started talking about balls drying up.

And as far as debate is concerned, that's pretty much for others on this blog. For you its purpose is to keep you raging in the chair rather than wobbling down the corridor looking for 80 year olds to "drop" or annoying the local cops by demanding they track down bloggers who've angered you.

I had also hoped this blog would provide you with suitable mental therapy for your hemorrhoid and Irritable bowel problems, though judging by your recent outbursts I have to say that we may be making your condition worse instead of better.

Lord Egbut Nobacon said...

Straw man...

The Veteran said...

Egbut ... sorry, it wasn't National that made all those promises. Labour's hoist with its own petard. Over promised and under delivered and that's how they will be judged.
Oppositions seldom win elections; governments lose them and this government is trying hard to make it happen.

How will National reverse that? Fair question. For a starter by not frightening the bejesus out of the business sector; genuine reform of the RMA to remove the roadblocks to development and getting rid of low quality spending .. like the first year fees free bribe; like the PGF aka NZF election fund; like kiwiflop; like remove the ban on oil and gas exploration ... but you knew that. Growing the economy gives you genuine options; shrinking the economy to below previous growth predictions and you're in real stuk.

Lord Egbut Nobacon said...

Nice but no cigar...that wasn't an answer

Snowflake said...

No plan or vision, just selective and wilfully deceptive use of statistics coupled with the odd lie chucked in in an attack on his own country. Yes, it’s a Monday in the National Party spin room. Enjoying opposition are we?

The Veteran said...

Egbut ... you mean that wasn't the answer you wanted to hear.

Flake ... and your vision now is exposed as borrow and hope and then there's Kiwiflop ... some vision there exposed as all smoke and mirrors, for what ... 74 houses completed with your mob having to buy some back because nobody wants them. Arn't you just a teeny weeny bit embarrassed about what is probably this centuries most spectacular public policy disaster. No wonder St Jacinda goes dark when you even mention the name.