Wednesday, December 12, 2018

AT WHAT COST?



Around mid October one of the gurus employed to try and predict weather for the citizenry made a bold and as now very apparent,  wildly inaccurate prediction of a two month sustained period of hot dry weather to close out 2018.

Now I understand that such reading of weather for these islands sitting  isolated in a vast expanse of ocean is quite fraught even sometimes when only trying to predict hours ahead.
However having travelled from home base to The McKenzie basin where a fortnight fishing lakes and canals was cancelled due to some of the group becoming aware of a rather daunting forecast predicting wintry conditions for at least the first week, then embarking on a slow trip north for a family visit until years end., there is still very little sign of any factual truth of the Mid October prediction.

Now ensconced in a delightful bit of The Bay of Plenty on the shore of Lake Rotoiti following a trip via Nth Canterbury (very wet) in fact so wet we chose, fortunately, to head west via The Lewis Pass, Shenandoah, and The Wairau. I say fortunate as that day,  28th November saw the Pacific highway still under threat of closure from rain events, following its multi million dollar, award winning reinstatement, actually close.
Next day a rearranged earlier sailing with Bluebridge led to a drive to the other Bay via the old haunts of the Wairarapa. A few days R & R and another trip down memory lane via Gentle Annie to here at Rotoiti.
Almost unknown in my years on this planet such a journey during November/ December would have encountered at least one if not more areas, threatened with dry if not actual drought.
Not so, it was green grass in abundance the whole way and too many wet days for enjoyable sight seeing, although to be fair the four big days, Fairlie to home base, Waiau to Blenheim, Wellington to Mangatahi and Mangatahi to Rotoiti all encountered warm clear days. Most of the other days, including today variable weather with low cloud and precipitation ranging from a few mm to many mm.

Being perpetually on holiday and having the luxury of our mobile home for shelter, such adverse weather is but a minor inconvenience,  that said, having spent a lifetime in constant conflict with weather, particularly too many rain deprived seasons where a years production was under threat from early dry conditions, this year is remarkable for its abundance in the east coast regions from Canterbury to Hawkes Bay.
Irrigated systems will be making good profits by being turned off while dryland systems will enjoy the favourable benevolence.
Alas though how many decisions made in the light of the dire predictions from "The Guru" who got it so wrong, in destocking, not planting, and generally being influenced to reduce opportunity to benefit.

All the while these same climate and weather drips under pressure, almost to a one  in the thrall of the nonsense that man is destroying the planet while creating food for the millions, will never be held to account for their unfortunate errors.
The "ugly agriculturist" wealth creator using their flawed science settled predictions and taking prudent action, actually loses real income from resulting missed opportunities.

Mind, that misnamed "expert", lost no income, and the massive error is now long forgotten as the silly season approaches and that very same weather guessing will be trotted out in infotainment bulletins for the plebs who will be inconveniently disadvantaged if a slightly delayed long two month of Hot n Dry dont turn out again this holiday season

2 comments:

David said...

Perhaps, instead of just moaning, why don't you do better? Oh, you can't.

Maybe you could lay out you qualifications so we understand better why you are such a smart arse.

King Ring is a fraud, and you should know that by now,

gravedodger said...

Nah David just looking out the window gives me very accurte WEATHER information.


Stopped clocks are correct twice a day, bet you didnt know that either.


Btw what is King Ring, just askin