Friday, October 20, 2017

Not a bad prediction

I wrote this on September 25.  My "checks" are in Red.

The country will be shocked when Winston abandons implicit protocol and forms a government with Labour.

He'll do that ostensibly for these reasons I think, none of which is to do with policy as Winston couldn't give a flying monkeys about policy.

  1. Jacinda Ardern and Grant Robertson et al are *so* desperate for power they'll fold much more easily than English/Joyce et al.  Mallard will ensure it so as to become speaker.  Check.
  2. Winston knows he will be able to walk all over Jacinda and Robertson and run rings around them in government - he's too crafty for them.  But this absolutely won't apply for English and his team.  Check.
  3. Winston's policy platform is very left and interventionist and matches nicely with Labour's.  Check.
  4. National has baggage after 9 years, even if their result on Saturday was astounding.  For example, if there is possibly stuff to come on Oravida's involvement with the damaged pipeline; and Jian Yang's problems with his "false" declarations (mind you, Raymond Huo doesn't look squeaky clean either), that will hurt the government and Winston won't want to be tainted by that.  On the other had, Labour comes with essentially "clean" hands.  Missed that one perhaps.
  5. Winston and the Nats don't see eye-to-eye.  They beat him in Tauranga; they've now just beaten him in Northland; they teamed up with Rodney Hide to kick him into touch in 2008.  Labour, on the other hand, has no such issues.  Check (I think).  
Forget what you read in the papers from Shaw and others, like Shaw won't accept second best etc etc.  The Greens will be in government, and have a couple of ministers outside cabinet (so Winston doesn't need to involve them) and he'll give them some candy like healthy homes and some other mush to keep them pleased.  Double-check.

The players in this will be Mallard, Annette King and Helen Clark.  Clark knows Winston better than others and will be in Jacinda's ear daily.  Unsure, but likely a check.

National should get ready for opposition.  Check.

17 comments:

The Veteran said...

NIck ... good post. I take issue with you on only one point and assuming the Greens are going to get cabinet positions to do with the environment and/or transport. Winston can't ignore their presence at Cabinet Committee level (where the hard work is done) which they attend as of right notwithstanding they are only in the outer ministry.

The Greens position on transport and the environment (endorsed by Labour) will create real anger in rural/provincial New Zealand where Winston polls best (and where National holds most of the seats) and you can bet National will work to inflame that angst much like a hungry dog after a bone.

Watch Winston's constituency evaporate.

Happy daze.

Psycho Milt said...

Jacinda Ardern and Grant Robertson et al are *so* desperate for power they'll fold much more easily than English/Joyce et al.

Tracy Watkins seems to think that's how it played out.

Of course, Ardern was on a hiding to nothing with that. If NZF had gone with National, pundits would be talking up English's awesome negotiating skills; NZF goes with Labour, aw must be because Ardern was too weak to stand up to him.

I suspect it was nothing to do with egos and all to do with policy - National can't restrict immigration to the extent NZF demands and still keep its Chinese funding, and the funding won out.

Anonymous said...

Hear a while ago that Annette wants London post.
She loves to party in London - have been there when she into it.
Now she will get it. Think of the baubles.

Paranormal said...

Really PM, policy? This is the king of baubles we're talking about.

If you don't like his policies, don't worry he has others ( with apologies to Groucho).

The Veteran said...

C'mon PM ... National Party and Chinese funding ... give me a break (unless you are talking about the many NZ Chinese totally offended by Labour's 'Chinky' names put down).

But you're not are you. You're insinuating that National is funded from abroad. Proof please. I could respond in like by suggesting that the Greens are funded from Moscow but I won't because that is a nonsense too (I think).

Mind you when I look at the returns provided to the Electoral Commission by the various parties I see that last year the Greens received $609,626.12 in donations over $15,000 with National only about half that with $314,972.19 and Labour well back with just $110,304.12. Clearly 'your' Party is the Party of BIG donors.

Psycho Milt said...

Money from abroad is so last-century. The Chinese government under Xi Jinping prefers to exercise influence over foreign countries via patriotic emigrants overseen by its agents. There's a reason the Chinese government representative Jian Yang was so awesomely successful at fundraising for National among NZ's Chinese citizens, and why the people running outfits like Alpha Laboratories and the Inner Mongolia Rider Horse Industry front up such large donations to National - and it's not because National are such a great bunch of guys.

The Veteran said...

PM ... your condemnation of the NZ Chinese community does you no credit and puts you on a par with Winston First's xenophobic attitude to Asia and Asians. Clearly on matters of race NZF, Labour and the Greens sing from the same songsheet. Sad.

Anonymous said...

Nick...I believe that it was decided a week before the election when Ardern, who I now think is a pretty shrewd operator, aimed the elephant gun between Winston's eyes. She told the world that she wants restrictions on the foreign purchase of land by Christmas.

The first act of NZF in a National led government would either have to betray the coalition by abstaining on the vote or imploding and losing all credibility and his legacy by voting against it....slam dunk.

Winston is 72, he knows he will never be an elected Prime Minister and this will be his last Government so he is now looking to his legacy and I'm sure you will see a more thoughtful and serious man. As in business sometimes the most unlikely of bedfellows make for a successful and dynamic team.....for the country, lets hope so.

Lord Egbut

Anonymous said...

Veteran......there is no Chinese community in as much as there is no Australian community or English community. The only community the Chinese have is the seven villages of the ancestors. And at the risk of sounding xenophobic the Chinese are the most racist people in the world, they have a superiority complex that makes a Victorian Missionary positively humble. They do not integrate well with other cultures and in Africa where there are many Chinese colonies that grew from the Chinese rush to mine minerals in the 1990's trouble is brewing.

Lord Egbut

The Veteran said...

Egbut ... yes, you do sound xenophobic. The Chinese came to NZL not too long after Europeans. They came here to work and work they did despite being treated as third class citizens. Most Chinese I know consider themselves New Zealanders in the best sense of the word. They tend to be non-political in a partisan sense but it is ignorant arseholes like Twyford and Peters that has turned them against Labour and NZF.

Psycho Milt said...

I make no condemnation of the Chinese community. I'm not chuffed at all though with the people promoting Chinese Communist Party interests in NZ, many of whom are doing so via their association with the National Party. There's a good description of it here.

The Veteran said...

PM ... the article also identifies Labour MP Raymond Huo and a second Labour Party candidate Chen Naisi as having United Front connections and so what ... I have some connections with Malaysia but are you seriously suggesting that I am promoting the interests of the Barisan Nasional in NZL. Tosh.

Anonymous said...

Veteran... There is a great difference between those of Chinese descent who landed here as coolies or forced labour for the Otago gold fields nine generations ago and than those here arrived here as rich, by Chinese standards, a few years ago. It's funny how in the 1960's the "Poms" were regarded as second class citizens. You are quite right in saying the Chinese are apolitical....that is bad news because with only a financial or nationalistic involvement what can they add to the countries well being.

PM.. Step back....there is no Chinese community any more than there is a gay community,
it's just them and us or any other human, racial, sexual, tribal you care to name.

Lord Egbut ......Phd from the University of the bleeding obvious

Anonymous said...

The bigger issue is that net taxpayers now have no effective input into the way the country is run again

Psycho Milt said...

PM ... the article also identifies Labour MP Raymond Huo and a second Labour Party candidate Chen Naisi as having United Front connections...

It does, and I am concerned about that. But it's clear the primary vehicle is the National Party.

...and so what ... I have some connections with Malaysia but are you seriously suggesting that I am promoting the interests of the Barisan Nasional in NZL.

Nope. But if Malaysia were a communist dictatorship running a programme of extending its influence in other countries via patriotic Malaysians living there, and you were a Malaysian with contacts in that programme, I'd have suspicions about you becoming a NZ MP who promotes better relations with the Malaysian dictatorship, for sure.

The Veteran said...

PM ... all countries look to extending their influence in other countries to a greater or lesser degree and by a variety of means ... some diplomatic and in many other ways. But if you are suggesting that having a single ethnic Chinese MP in their ranks (and their lower ranks at at) means that China is exercising some invisible hand on either Labour of National Party policy then I can understand why it is that the Greens have elbowed Labour into holding a referendum to make dope smoking legal.

Psycho Milt said...

All countries look to extending their influence in other countries, sure. Not all of them are very wealthy totalitarian dictatorships using that wealth to carry out various concealed methods of influencing other countries, though. The report I linked to mentions the following tactics:

- Gaining influence over Chinese migrants living in other countries (10 million Chinese live outside China).

- Taking over or integrating the local ethnic Chinese media with the Chinese media controlled by the Communist Party.

- Encouraging local Chinese who are acceptable to the Chinese government to enter politics in their host countries and if elected getting them to promote China’s interests.

- Appoint former local MPs with access to political power to high profile roles in Chinese companies or Chinese-funded entities in the host country.


The last two are particular noteworthy in the case of National, and to them we could add "Have local Chinese who are acceptable to the Chinese government make large donations to the governing party."