Monday, September 4, 2017

So Many Questions, So Few Answers......

.....Yes, I'm talking about North Korea, South Korea, Japan, China and the USA.

Millions of words have being written by all sorts of people professing to be experts on the complex issues involved.   The most common flaw in the arguments of these fellows seems an inability to understand that military action and diplomacy are inexorably intertwined.  Much opinion is presented as though the two are exclusive alternatives.

The most improbable essay was a long piece by Conrad Black, setting out argument in favour of and detail of a proposed military strike on NK.  I did not know Mr Black managed to fit into his busy commerial media schedule experience in international diplomacy and military strategy and tactics but perhaps I misjudge him.  The stand out piece of idiocy was the notion that ' a few shells might fall on Seoul but casualties would be minor,' or words to that effect

Obama was derided and beaten blind by the world's villains because they knew he was a weakling who talked tough but didn't carry through..  He was a seemer, not a doer.  Whatever his faults, Trump is a doer not a seemer and the world appears to be taking notice.

Among the questions that arise for me and for which I have found no reasonable answer are:-


  • Who is supplying NK with it's advanced nuclear and ballistic technology?  
Obvious contenders are Iran, Pakistan or Russia.  Are there any other possibilities?
  • What is China looking for out of this crisis?  
It's a fair bet that China want's and will get control of a China-friendly North Korea.  No doubt China would want control of Taiwan and legitimacy for its recent predatory activities in the South China Sea but I don't see 'the allies' giving those away.
  • What does Kim Jong hope to achieve from all of this? 
It's hard to see any upside in it for him by seriously putting his only ally's nose out of joint.
  • How do you quickly knock out 6,500 artillery pieces and 3,500 multiple rocket launchers aimed at a city of 20 million people?   
Mr Black thinks a swarm of cruise missiles will do the job.  I very much doubt it but who am I to say?

  • Will the USA trade away Taiwan in return for China 'doing the job' on North Korea?

  •  I hope not.

    Other questions for which there seem to be some answer might be:-
    • Does China want war with the USA?         
    I very much doubt it.  I suspect that despite all the talk, China's military is not a patch on that of the USA and the days of pouring thousands of peasants into the line of small arms fire are long gone. Further, such a conflict would irreparably damage China's economy, leading to massive internal and uncontrollable conflict.
    • How much of the rhetoric out of NK is without substance?
    I suspect it will turn out that the Norker Porker makes the same mistake as did Saddam Hussein and persuades the West that he is infinitely stronger that he really is, resulting in the West sending him off for his own appointment with a couple of 20mm Oerlikon rounds.


    7 comments:

    Adolf Fiinkensein said...

    I should have added, in my opinion, the continued escalating bellicosity of North Korea renders major military conflict in the near future pretty well inevitable.

    The Veteran said...

    Adolf ... not so certain. For both North and South Korea it's a case of MAD. If there is to be a resolution of the problem then surely China holds the key.

    David said...

    Jesusonarollerskate Adolf, you sure draw a long bow at times.

    Obama was derided and beaten blind by the world's villains because they knew he was a weakling who talked tough but didn't carry through.

    It is a common trait of politicians to sometimes let their mouth get ahead of reality. But sometimes Obama did carry through, his deal with Iran, for example, that defused a burgeoning crisis. Don't forget that Obama did the best he could with an obstructionist House and Senate.

    And speaking of forgetting, have you already forgotten your esteemed Mad Monk's threat to shirtfront Putin? Where was the "doer" there?

    Whatever his faults, Trump is a doer not a seemer and the world appears to be taking notice.

    So what has Trump done? How much legislation has he guided through the Legislature? Republicans hold both Houses but The Orange Cheeto cannot get anything passed, all the while he complains about the Dems obstructing him.

    Who is supplying NK with it's advanced nuclear and ballistic technology? Obvious contenders are Iran, Pakistan or Russia. Are there any other possibilities?

    We know that North Korea had help from Canada, USSR, Belgium, China, Pakistan, the UK and, oddly enough, the USA.

    What is China looking for out of this crisis?

    I don't know, neither do you, but I suspect some of your speculations may be in Chinese thinking. The other thing China craves is recognition as a serious world military power.

    What does Kim Jong hope to achieve from all of this?

    The same thing the Kim dynasty has always wanted. Territorial integrity and the continuance of the Kim line. Don't forget that Korea was separated by US and USSR territorial ambitions, it was not done at the request of or the agreement to by the Korean people.

    Does China want war with the USA?

    Why not as Does the USA want war with China. The sabre rattling and threats are not coming from China, they are coming from the Manchildean candidate in the Whitehouse.

    How much of the rhetoric out of NK is without substance? I suspect it will turn out that the Norker Porker makes the same mistake as did Saddam Hussein ...

    Wrong there. Kim has learned from what happened to Iraq and Libya. Libya gave up its nuclear programme, Bush hailed it as a way for Libya to enter "normal" relations with the world and hardly minutes later, The USA launched attacks on Libya to overthrow the government.

    This article speaks to America's ambitions and shows why it is a greater threat to world stability than North Korea.

    North Korea is not the one conducting war games and live fire tests along the border, North Korea is not the one demanding the other side give up weapons. North Korea is doing what every nation does - preparing its national defence.

    Now, you claimed trump is a "doer", so what has he done? His latest brain fart was to cut off trade with any nation that trades with North Korea. Hmm, that means China, and cutting of trade with China would tank the US economy over night.

    All this talk of war and rumours of war does not help. North Korea considers it has been at war since it was founded and the USA has given them no reason to change that view.

    Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, all recently destabilised by US military action. Do we really want to add North Korea to that list, or is diplomacy the better option? It worked with China.

    Adolf Fiinkensein said...

    And along came David with his usual serve up of half truths.

    Just one example of many:-

    "Don't forget that Obama did the best he could with an obstructionist House and Senate."

    David, he had control of the house but lost it in the mid term elections.

    Adolf Fiinkensein said...

    I haven't yet worked out whether David's last rambling comment is an orchestrated litany or a farrago.

    Adolf Fiinkensein said...

    Here's an interesting analysis from someone who has been close to the 'action' for some years.

    http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/08/29/kim-jong-un-fearless-trump-215555

    Andrei said...

    It is not a half truth that Colonel Gaddafi surrendered his weapons Adolf

    Nor is it a half truth that NATO wantonly bombed Libya into anarchy

    This criminal action happened in total violation of international law and human decency

    Obama actually bombed seven sovereign nations illegally during his second term and while you might think he is weak he is actually a war criminal