Friday, September 15, 2017

A Bit Of A Mess

The opinion polls, that is.

David Farrar has some discussion on this phenomenon over at his place where he uses the term 'diverging polls' to describe the consistent inconsistency between Reid Research and Colmar Brunton.
Reid Research consistently shows National in front while Colmar Brunton just as consistently gives Labour the lead.  These are not the stuff of credible results.

  • 30 August Colmar Brunton Nat 41%, Lab 43% = Lab +2%
  • 30 August Reid Research Nat 43% Lab 39% = Nat +4%
  • 6 Sep Colmar Brunton Nat 39% Lab 43% = Lab +4%
  • 11 Sep Reid Research Nat 47% Lab 38% = Nat +9%
  • 13 Sep Colmar Brunton Nat 40%, Lab 44% = Lab +4
David seems unable to provide a logical explanation for these 'divergences.'  He remarks that recently his polls at Curia also have diverged from those of Colmar Brunton.

I suggest people should look at the empirical evidence.   For both sets of polls to be accurate would require a rapid fluctuation of public opinion with wild changes occurring every three or four days.  I don't think that chance is much greater than zero.

I think there is something fishy going on at Colmar Brunton.   Either deliberately or innocently there seems to be a problem there which skews the result towards Labour.

Why would I be surprised when the client paying for the poll is the television arm of Labour and the Greens?

Of course the one thing which goes without saying is that these volatile polls are telling the Gnats to fight hard right up to September 23rd.

When it's all over, I'd be very interested to see an independent auditor go into all the major polling companies and examine their respective methodologies used for this campaign.  The industry might regain some credibility if it did just that.

1 comment:

paul scott said...

In spite of the fact that we can't see Curia polls at the moment, many people say they are the most accurate. That means as we think, a Nat lead.
The loser out of all this is my man Winston because naturally the horses are bolting back to the blue stable.
Then there are the undecideds who want to vote, and I'm picking if they haven't been sucked in by socialist comrad Cindy by now, then they'll swing back to Nat, possibly some to us.
Winston only now pulling his head in about this nonsense of a massive overhaul of NZ economics and too late back to Immigration and referendum > which we screamed at him all the time was 10%.
In the mean time people questioning his sanity. I think we could lose both our Canterbury NZF Prosser and O'Rourke.
A shambles all round and your man wins.
Its hard to believe the sheer number of sheep on this side of the fence.
Who with any thinking capacity at all votes Socialist; lets be relentlessly divisive and tax the New Zealander to breaking point