Saturday, September 30, 2017

THE MENDACITY OF WINSTON RAYMOND PETERS

The NZ First camp is leaking like a sieve since Winston's back-flip on his bottom-line promise to hold a referendum on the Maori seats issue.     This from my informant who was at the NZ First election  night dirge at Duke of Marlborough in Russell.

Cut to Winston's 9.50 pm TV interview carried live on both channels when he said that with the final result still unknown he was off to catch the last ferry back to Paihia.

Fact ... WRP was not on the 10 pm ferry.   In fact he didn't leave Russell at all ...  he stayed there that night.    The catalyst for his TV announcement was the advice tendered to him a view moments earlier that he had lost heavily in Kerikeri (won at the by-election) and that it was all over rover.

The reality was that Winston didn't want to be seen as a loser hence his supposed departure from the Duke ... and the Media Party fell for it hook, line and sinker.      

Winston is a loser and not even a good loser to boot ... Matt King is still waiting for Winston's concession call.


IT IS ONLY MONEY BUT BETTER, IT IS OTHER PEOPLES MONEY!



Not so great for one on a fixed income who will fund most of the excesses of the morons who convinced enough of the great unwashed to gain electoral success.

Not content to oversee the cost of rebuilding the Christchurch  Central Library climb from sixty odd million to over ninety million in just over two years, the wonderfully acumen saturated city fathers (mothers, uncles,  aunts and gender indeterminates) then wasted nearly fifteen thousand dollars in consultation on a fitting name for the edifice on Columbo St between Gloucester St and  Cathedral Square.

Clearly Central City Library was never going to be a  suitable  name despite it being accurate, descriptive, entirely appropriate and self explanetory

After spending an amount equal to five times my annual  rates impost, "Turanga" was chosen and the first question to be asked is what percentage of the ignorant masses of the City will have an inkling as to what the new building will house.

Which leads on to how anyone with an IQ greater than their inside leg expressed in meters believes the rebuild of the nearby pile of decaying rubble into a functioning church HQ for Anglicans will be held to one hundred and whatever millions over the coming decade.
Of course by then almost every one of the morons who support such arrant nonsense will be long departed and only the by now  current long suffering rate payers will be in the gun for additional funding.

Disclaimer I am a user of the current temporary setup in Peterborough St mainly as a wi fi support and access place that is warm, dry, and with adequate parking and easy access. How that will transfer to the new creation is yet to be discovered.

Friday, September 29, 2017

DISASTER FOR A SUSTAINABLE INDUSTRY AND WRONG ON SO MANY FACTS




During a farming life of over forty years a dominating facet was a war against Possums more correctly named Trichosurus vulpecula an Australian assisted immigrant introduced around the second  quarter of the 1800s to begin a fur trade. Such a modern abomination was all the rage back then before petrochemicals created  the clothing options of the present day. Of course all that is superimposed on how many of those SJWs now  holding their weapons trained on that exploitive extraction by a finite resource based industry.

 My total war on Possums began in the early sixties when as an itinerant shepherd working dogs on native clad hillsides, a major potential impediment to success came from the furry marsupials hiding in scattered flax plants.
Too often dogs suddenly became diverted by the scent of the pest and conversion to possum hunter overcame the sheperding task at hand.  So moving and directing scattered small mobs of sheep into larger mobs to be headed to the gate for a next move, often at the direction of a barking huntaway then became fraught.
When the alternative became the task for a distracted dog it rapidly   became almost deprived of it's bark from possum fur placing a temporary gagging from a clogged voice box and without a bark a huntaway is as useful as a soggy ice cream cone on a wet day.

That became a first reason to kill the Australian interloper.

Offensive behavior next reared its ugly self as a destructive facet of home gardening both decorative and in food provision. Particularly in spring when new growth and emerging plants are so attractive to the marsupials brought to NZ by well intentioned persons who in ignorance of just how prolific and fertile the protected species from the West Isle would become in this verdant and eco friendly land,  a very personal and increasingly murderous cohabitation became a  further hazzard for the possum families.

Then farm ownership with mixed beef and sheep became threatened with Possums as a vector in the spread of Bovine  Tuberculosis or Tb. Closely related to a scourge of humans in previous centuries,  that in our lifetime saw most children given an inoculation on their upper arm that left a significant scar.
Living in bush and exotic plantations that proliferate in and on the margins of much of NZ pastoral enterprise, possums move out of the woodlands onto pasture for food and alas those marsupials infected with TB become walking suppurating pustules smearing grass with live Tb organisms to be ingested by grazing cattle who in turn become infected and not able to be passed fit for human consumption. I have never farmed Deer but they are also susceptible to such infections.
Bovine TB in the latter half of the 20th century threatened the very survival of NZ beef and venison.
industries as many trading partners wanted to exclude produce from nations with endemic Tb.
Badgers are a similr vector in Europe

A concerted campaign of herd testing and a concentrated attack on posums has seen the  almost elimination of Bovine Tb in NZ.

So arose a third reason for all out war with poisoning, shooting and trapping of the hoard that had often seen a farming life punctuated with an almost nightly campaigns. I claim some degree of success, in two decades in The Wairarapa with seven neighbouring properties all moving into and out of movement control of their herds from Tb reactors discovered in the annual test, we remained Tb free with the highest Tb Free status acheivable over that time.
A most economical and effective control substance in possum control has been and remains 1080 or sodium fluroacetate,  a much misunderstood and maligned, yet still widely used toxin.

Through all this almost intractable problem one serious concerted opposition factor has been present, the almost insatiable mood in international opposition to humans wearing fur that has gained so greatly from ill informed A through Z listers who identified farmed mustelids the providers of most now banned fur apparel options as garments of fashion.
Possum fur was included as an unjustified condemned fur in spite of fact based status the animal was a declared pest that threatened many species of bird life along with the well documented threat to livestock farming.
Ignorance outweighed reason.
Then in a major step forward, Possum fur became a popular blend of thermal clothing as Merino/Mink developed in NZ and rapidly became established and avoiding the opprobrium applied wrongly to its fur status, gave renewed impetus to a fur industry that was promised in 1837.

In recent news PETA, a bunch of moronic collaborators with mindless opposition to man living alongside animals for many facets of enjoyment and survival from a symbiotic coexistant relationship.
Horses that can provide a challenge to human endeavour in Rodeo have been condemned as being exploitated when the alternative might well be an early death at the knackers. Likewise Bulls and calves without any consultation as to alternatives for them, are condemned when they are used in a sport based on range life with minimal fences and yards.
Now some will find an ambient understanding of animals being exploited in Rodeo and should a  prohibition come to pass then show jumping, cross country, dressage,  police mounts, steeple-chasing horse racing, harness racing with sulkies, huskies pulling sleds and who knows what else will become a means for a public image from activity human/animal survival has thrown up, and will offend these social justice warriors. Golly gosh even using St Bernard Dogs to find avalanche victims and other highly  trained dogs finding survivors of earthquakes could become subject to elimination.

Most of the sheep in the world have been developed to retain their fleece of wool beyond a winter protection from cold and a resulting harvest is needed for the comfort of the animal with a bonus of providing fibre for spinning and weaving into garments and coverings for floors and walls. Natural beyond the beliefs of most,  wool is indeed an answer to the prayers of conservationists world wide as an ultimate sustainable activity in a world increasingly in the sights of a growing number questioning, often irrationally what such terminology actually tries to achieve..
The Morons at PETA have embarked on a crusade to outlaw "shearing of sheep" and if thats not sufficiently deluded thinking then just slaughter all wool bearing sheep as eventually things will end badly.
If becoming "cast" on their back unable to regain their feet it will end with dehydration and death. Should  that excruciating end be avoidedanother equally fatal end awaits from possible overheating or inability to travel for fodder will likewise cause premature demise. Add in a high probability for Flystrike when Flies lay eggs in moist fleece and emerging maggots in their lifecycle will cause rapid dehydration and death for the unwilling host, additionally and far more "gross"  some fly species find additional nutrient from invading the carcass through healthy skin surfaces while natural orifices can also enable invasive attacks.

Some sheep species will survive a no shearing regime with early shedding and very short and sparse wool cover, however a majority of NZ breeds have been selectively bred for wool production to a level that sees certain longwool species being shorn twice yearly or at 8/9 month intervals.

In support of their unwarranted attack, PETA used Australian examples of bad tempered shearers mistreating  sheep, very rare in NZ shearing activity in my over forty years of observation and rapidly leading to a quick end to a career as a shearer,but why would PETA allow such minor fraudulent footage from being used in their latest foray of sensationalized attention seeking.

The latest adventure by PETA into the real world should hve been ignored by a media with a skerrik of common sense, but sensing a click bait opportunity, alas the hopeless gave the irrelevant oxygen.

Had I the power, I would place all the PETA morons on say the Auckland Islands with a knife some fishing lines and hooks, a few seeds and let them discover where Human progress actually came from. Should death come from their disastrous ignorance then that would be a message truely worthy of publicity in an increasingly sad MSM.

ALTOGETHER CONFRONTING AND UNHELPFUL.



Recently had an experience in a MSD office that was at a minimum unsettling.

No secret swmbo is dealing with a neurological condition that she is handling in many wonderful ways but there is no denying the progression is ongoing, including mobility issues..

Needing proof of residential address for an anti money laundering control (that is imho clearly doomed to fail) regarding where swmb normally calles home and being nearly a hundred Kms from access to such info there, I walked nearly a Km to a nearby MSD office leaving swmbo to drink coffee and wait in the mall. An additional fact that has such Crat nonsense ruled as rather problematic comes from our penchant to enjoy life on the road as we often spend  over half our time  in our mobile home.  I have heard other grey nomads having similar problems with the one size fits all rulings from MSD when their Movan is their only place of residence.

Outside the workplace for the minions who I assist with funding their wages, stood a clip board wielding Armourguard employee who asked if I had an appointment to which I replied "no, I was only seeking assistance in response to a one off need". Inside the locked office front door, it was late morning around 11 30AM, a visible queue of people waiting to get to reception.  'Outsider' Agd employee using basic sign language asked how many and inside another Ag employee monitoring the queue within, held up four fingers and thumb of one hand and a single finger of the other hand. Asking what that was about, 'outsider' informed me an arbitrary limit of seven was in place for those wishing to approach reception, leaving me understanding we would have been forced to wait even longer had swmbo been with me.
Having eventually gained entry after 'outsider Agd' unlocked the door, I waited many minutes to get to reception where I offered my gold card as proof of Id, then explained my need for a document generated by computer with proof of residence so swmbo could do her lawful business in the mall, a long walk  for her, nearly a Km away.
Yes their computer had the capability to fulfill the request but in swmbo's absence, "no can do"!
I calmly repeated my need and explained the document could have been diverted by self from our joint PO Box, and no one any the wiser, swmbo's mobility issues, and a compelling need for some latitude, again a resounding no.
Then following a small indication of regret from Frau Reception for being unable to assist and somewhat chagrined, I beat a strategic retreat back to the mall to rejoin a by now agitated swmbo who has gained an added affliction of paranoia to accompany her neurological issues.

I understand rules are rules but do too many revert to blanket application as an easy way to administer, eg OIA requests that too often end up with an Ombudsman intervention leading to an over rule.

On my way back to the Mall in a moment of inspiration I recalled a commercial outfit we had a relationship with was located in that mall, so after meeting swmbo and explaining the situation, I explored a new alternative.
Now choice number two  only had a Postal address in their records and having already established a PO Box did not comply must have led to a degree of disconsolation in body language as without further prompting the very nice lady offered to alter their records to show swmbo's physical address, print a document and then restore their records to the original PO Box number.

Back in business everything happened as needed and although only by including an act of  conspiracy to circumvent a rule, led to completion, all was well. Apart that is from exposing a significant hole in the system that goes some way to explain how so many easily subvert the well laid plans of those "Crats" who think they have all the answers.

Yes the tragic events in the MSD office in nearby Ashburton just over three years ago were senseless and appalling and measures need to be taken to avoid any repeat. Dont Banks and other institutions have to confront such dangers on a daily basis with out the amateur hour OTT measures that are currently in place ostensibly to protect  staff in one of the most used state service outlets with a clientele that often might  be socially diminished in an ability to just get along.
An earlier incident when self and swmbo wanted to redirect swmbo's benefit to a different a/c immediately after the killings in Ashburton, was equally out of this world at Linwood  MSD where a very large Armourguard Male only allowed admission on production of a drivers licence for both of us, then handed us over  to another gorilla who then stood at our shoulder while what we regarded as private and personal discussions ensued.

Dysfunctional is one word that comes to mind in assessing MSD procedures currently in place.

NON-NEGIATABLE BOTTOM LINE #74

I see the NBR is running a story that whichever Party agrees to Winston First's non-negotiable bottom line to transfer the container terminal from the Ports of Auckland to Northport (Whangarei) will form the next government.

Leaving aside the fact that such a move defies any rational economic analysis one is entitled to ask if this non-negotiable bottom line is as non-negotiable as the referendum of the Maori seats; a referendum on the repeal of the anti-smacking legislation and the reopening of the Napier-Gisborne railway line .... and, and, and ....

Just askin.

Friday's Fulminations

There is mild moderation.  Normal rules of blogger etiquette and courtesy to blog hosts will apply.with serious transgressors being thrown out.

Unfortunately our system does not allow your comments to show up in the blog post itself.  Just in the comments section.

Visitors might consider the wisdom of using moderate language.

Regards

Adolf

Thursday, September 28, 2017

I WOULD BE VERY SURPRISED

if there aren't any 'back channel' negotiations taking place between National and some of the more pragmatic Green MPs (perhaps facilitated by Dr Kennedy Graham).      Forget the ritualistic denials from camp Green ... reality sometimes produces unlikely bedfellows.

Consider this ... The National Party Blue/Green Special Interest Group is a force to be reckoned with in the Party.   They might be singing a different song from the Greens but its from the same songbook.   Consider this ... the junior party in a two party coalition has much more gravitas than would a junior party in a three way coalition deal.  Consider this ... two positions in cabinet (say Housing and Transport) and a third minister in the outer-cabinet (say Associate Social Welfare) stacks up much more than a couple of associate portfolios in the outer-cabinet likely under a Labour/NZF/Greens coalition deal noting that Winston has said that he won't sit with Green Party ministers at the same cabinet table ... and Winston is of course a man of his word ... snort, choke.

Yep ... dead rats all round but that's what MMP is all about and, with the departure of Me Tu and the pseudo-communist Catherine Delahunty, a more pragmatic Greens caucus might just have the nous to work out where they might get more bangs for their buck.



PERHAPS IT IS THE BEST WAY FORWARD.




From  a position that supports the "Melons" never being near a cabinet table, I am surrendering to a growing philosophy that sees Winston first and Jimmy with two mums sitting around the Cabinet table with The Peoples Princess and waiting with ample supplies of popcorn for it all to be revealed as the incompetent governing the stupid.

A total cluster  f**k might just allow Joe and Josephine Voter to see how monumentally stupid "change for change sake" actually is as a key driver of electoral success.

The NZ Green Party now have a once in a lifetime opportunity to reposition themselves as an environmental influence in how this country moves forward.

The late unlamented Steffan Browning now gone to fight Ebola epidemics with water.
The fraudster now a bad memory.
Sadly the two  who gave the rabble a bit of gravitas have been sent to a Gulag.
The revealing video that no MSM would publish has established a sufficiently communist creation for the left in Ardern without those charlatans who successfully hid their true colours and fooled sufficient idiots they were gunna make NZ a clean green place in the world to enter the big house via the Melon Tumbrel.

If NZ is to be saddled with MMP as a system going forward then we need to mature politically and accept main parties being all to everyone with minor cults limiting their drift to a main arena of protest with only compatible side issues for filler.
That the Melons have managed to occupy around 10% of votes with two unlinked main drivers is a revealing indictment of how shallow our political maturity really is. They need to decide if the environment or the far left socialist faction is their niche.

For evidence a glimpse of the German Federal set up has the environmental driven GP in government for years while the childish efforts of dope smoking handout oriented  wallies spending twenty years as highly paid spectators here in NZ.

WINSTON PETERS ... THE BACKDOWN BEGINS

Winston Peters on the 'Bolt Report' last night in Oz backed away from his absolute, bottom-line, commitment that there should be a referendum on the retention of the Maori seats as part of any coalition deal.    He said the demise of the Maori Party meant this was no longer an issue.

WTF has the demise of the Maori Party got to do with this.   This is Winston doing what Winston does well ... fudging the issue; introducing caveats to his commitment where no caveats existed before.   This will tear his not so ever adoring voting constituency apart.

What it does do is to remove the greatest impediment to him doing a deal with Labour.    I now fully expect a Labour/NZF/Greens coalition government to be in power ten days hence.     PM will be happy.   New Zealand won't be.   And a prediction ... three years from now Winston First will have sunk without trace.

HOW IS THAT?



Notices around the polling station I used, prohibited cameras and photography.
The people staffing had no answer when I asked how come there could well be news pictures of leaders voting,  published.

More idiotic job justifying anomalous rules that will never be enforced.

Wednesday, September 27, 2017

WAYNE BROWN ON STUPIDITY

I see that the NBR has published an opinion piece by Wayne Brown labeling electors in Northland as stupid for voting out Winston Peters as their MP.

Some might opine that Brown has a mortgage on stupidity having been voted in as Mayor of the Far North District Council with a mandate for change and dumped six years later leaving behind, as his legacy, a totally dysfunctional Council.   Other less charitable folk have described Brown as a totally self-serving prick quite up himself.. 

Sucking up to Winston for a job perhaps.   One thing for sure, National owes him nothing, zip, zero.

What's With The herald?

Adolf just had a quick look at the Politics page in the Herald.

Heres's a selection of headlines:-

"Winston Scratches His Arse"

"Peters Picks His Nose"

Don't you believe me?  Go and have a look.

The only possible reason for their omission is that there was something more inane to print.

Hey James - What About This Issue

On Saturday night The Greens came through with 7 elected members with the possibility that could increase to 8 after the counting of Special Votes. The problem they have is that whether the number is 7 or 8 there are only two males. Now my understanding of Green rules is that they MUST have an equal number of male and female parliamentary caucus members - or does that not apply if the imbalance favours females? The interesting thing is if they are going to enforce the rule which of the one or two ladies are going to stand down to allow two men to enter Parliament? I will watch the outcome with interest.

Tuesday, September 26, 2017

ON NZ FIRST

It's interesting to speculate on 'where to' for NZ First.   Forget all the current hullabaloo about them ... sorry, Winston (because Winston is them) being in a kingmaker position ... that's short term stuff.    The real question to be faced by  NZF is how to ensure their political survival three years hence.

Underpinning all this is that they came out of the election weaker than when they went into it.   Their leader lost his Northland seat.   Their twelve MPs are now nine.   They don't have a presence in the South Island after Peters dumped on Prosser and consigned him to the nether regions of their List for embarrassing him by pointing out it was NZ First policy to compulsorily reacquire the shares sold off under the asset sales program while Ria Bond, their Invercargill based MP, was given the flick also.

Those of you who frequent other blogs will have picked up that Paul Scott, Winston's chief apologist on this blog, is highly pissed off and has called their campaign a c*********k (thereby committing a cardinal sin ... excommunication beckons) and leading to the obvious question 'how many other NZF disillusioned Party apparatchiks are out there now (or after Winston makes his call?).   Then there is the brouhaha in the making with Winston's clear preference for Shane Jones as his Deputy over the lightweight SAS wannabee incumbent.

But all that aside it matters not whether he goes with National or Labour because the reality is that the junior Party in any coalition deal inevitably loses support come the next election as the 'sins' (real or imagined) of the senior Party are visited upon them ... and a Party with no electorate seat to fall back on and polling 7% is vulnerable, very vulnerable.

So, what to do.   Those who have suggested that changing the threshold to say 3-4% are dreaming.   There is no inter-party consensus within National and Labour for change,   It will not happen ... thankfully.   Who, apart from the minor parties, wants more fragmentation; who, apart from the minor parties is going to vote for more tail wags dog.

The answer is for the junior Party to do a deal with either National or Labour to 'gift' them an electoral seat as insurance against oblivion.   Happened before with National and ACT and United Future,   Can happen again.    David Farrar at Kiwiblog has done an analysis of where that could happen in respect of NZ First.   He rated twelve electorates in descending order of probably based on the NZ First Party vote.   Numbers one thru eleven are National held electorates.   Number twelve is West Coast-Tasman held by Labour (the birthplace of the Labour Party) ... the chances of Labour gifting that to NZ First is zip, zero.   But for National and with eleven electorates to 'play' with there are options.

One thing for sure ... Northland ain't part of the mix.

But if I were NZ First and looking to the long game this would be right at the top of my negotiating agenda. 

What The Hell

In for a penny, in for a pound.

Image result for winston peters

Having read commentary from all and sundry, many of whom predict a National led gummint to be formed, Adolf is sticking his neck out and joining them.

This is one of those predictions which is made knowing logic and principle will have little to do with the final decision.

Mr Peters is known to be a deep thinker who does his best thinking when he is deep into a whiskey bottle.  I was finally swayed to change my mind from a Labour led menagerie by a piece on Whaleoil which pointed out there is nobody in Labour capable of drinking Winston Peters under the table.


Monday, September 25, 2017

ONE MORE OBSERVATION FROM ELECTION NIGHT

It took my very good friend Ken from the Sandgroper State (watching our election results live on TV) to remind me about the absolutely bizarre performance by James Shaw when they cut to him for his 'victory' address.   Yep, we know the Greens are all for legalising the weed but if there was any doubt about its mind altering properties his performance would have easily dispelled them.

The Greens polled a third of where they were two months ago; they came within less than a percentage point of being turfed out of Parliament; they were reduced from 14 MPs to just 7 ... yet here he was claiming a mighty victory for the 'progressive' forces ... not sure I ever put Winston in the progressive category.

His actions were reminiscent of that of Mike Moore late on election night in 1993 with his demand to Bolger that he 'hand over the keys' to government' ... and of course we all know what happened to Moore soon after ... rolled by Clark.    Perhaps, just perhaps, Julie-Anne Genter's time has come. 

   

They Just Can't Resist

The media, that is.

Here are the photos used by The Australian today to accompany its coverage of NZ politics.

Incumbent New Zealand Prime Minister Bill English, left, Labour leader Jacinda Ardern, and kingmaker Winston Peters

It appears to me the shot of Winston Peters was taken at least twenty years ago.  I say that because I have seen no reports that Mr peters is a Botox addict.

What a pity they didn't give the same treatment to the architect of NZ's current superlative economic performance.

Here's a recent picture of the supposed King Maker.

Image result for winston peters

SELL TV1

Looking for any more evidence regarding the absolute bias of TV1 towards Labour ...   then look at the 6.00 pm news tonite.   A puff piece about St Jacinda being applauded at the Wellington airport and then an extended piece about the new Labour MPs arriving at Parliament with interviews from four of them. 

Of the new crop of National MPs including Matt King who defeated Winston Peters in Northland ... zip, zero, nothing.

Ok, you might argue TV1 ain't a 'performing' asset.   But sell it anyway.   Perhaps the Labour Party could buy it as their promised new 'public service' TV channel.   Whoops, I forgot, Winston First is opposed to asset sales.


MEMO TO THE 'NICE' MR PETERS

Matt King is still waiting for you to contact him to concede and offer your congratulations after he kicked your arse in Northland.

OK, you're hurting after having lost the three constituency seats you have represented (Hunua, Tauranga and now Northland) but convention and manners cost nowt.   Even St Jacinda had the whit to phone Bill English on Saturday night and congratulate him on his result.

Manners maketh the man ... sez much about you and a pointer perhaps as to  why you lost.


The Demise Of ACT - From The Provinces

The result for ACT was a disaster and one I believe could have been avoided if the people running the Party had taken the time and had the forethought to re establish the provincial Networks and basis which used to be in place. Now in saying this I am not a member of ACT or any other political party but for this election I decided to offer my time to support ACT because of the way National has moved so far left. As a first step on 23 May I emailed ACT Head Office (is there one?) offering to do letter box drops in the area around where I live in Hastings. I received a reply from Danae Smith, General Manager, within an hour or two advising that I would SOON be contacted by their Campaign Manager - lucky I did not hold my breath as I am still waiting. Now I am on ACTS email lists and at one stage they did ask for helpers but having already made my offer I waited for them to initiate direct contact. Given that people in the Tukituki electorate home of the Grasshopper Group were instrumental in the formation of ACT 20 plus year ago it shows how far the Act Party has strayed from its grass roots - to its detriment. Finally I did not see one ACT sign in Hastings and there were no drops to my letter box - disappointing. I still Party Voted ACT, as I have done in every MMP election except 2014, in the hope they might get a second MP but in hindsight there was never a chance of that happening so I wasted my Vote - never again.

Post election prediction

The country will be shocked when Winston abandons implicit protocol and forms a government with Labour.

He'll do that ostensibly for these reasons I think, none of which is to do with policy as Winston couldn't give a flying monkeys about policy.
  1. Jacinda Ardern and Grant Robertson et al are *so* desperate for power they'll fold much more easily than English/Joyce et al.  Mallard will ensure it so as to become speaker.
  2. Winston knows he will be able to walk all over Jacinda and Robertson and run rings around them in government - he's too crafty for them.  But this absolutely won't apply for English and his team.
  3. Winston's policy platform is very left and interventionist and matches nicely with Labour's.
  4. National has baggage after 9 years, even if their result on Saturday was astounding.  For example, if there is possibly stuff to come on Oravida's involvement with the damaged pipeline; and Jian Yang's problems with his "false" declarations (mind you, Raymond Huo doesn't look squeaky clean either), that will hurt the government and Winston won't want to be tainted by that.  On the other had, Labour comes with essentially "clean" hands.
  5. Winston and the Nats don't see eye-to-eye.  They beat him in Tauranga; they've now just beaten him in Northland; they teamed up with Rodney Hide to kick him into touch in 2008.  Labour, on the other hand, has no such issues.   
Forget what you read in the papers from Shaw and others, like Shaw won't accept second best etc etc.  The Greens will be in government, and have a couple of ministers outside cabinet (so Winston doesn't need to involve them) and he'll give them some candy like healthy homes and some other mush to keep them pleased.

The players in this will be Mallard, Annette King and Helen Clark.  Clark knows Winston better than others and will be in Jacinda's ear daily.

National should get ready for opposition.

Sunday, September 24, 2017

COUPLE OF OBSERVATIONS POST THE ELECTION

Marama Fox's comment that the Maori seats going back to Labour is akin to the battered wife going back to the abuser has a ring of truth about it.   Labour have viewed their Maori MPs as voting cannon fodder; generally treated them with disdain and fed them scraps.   Maoridom had a unique chance to establish an independent voice in Parliament.    They blew it.

David Seymour's decision not to be part of any National/NZ First coalition is the right one.   He can now concentrate on growing ACT's vote without the constraints of being in government.   But there will be challenges in doing that.   ACT now is not the ACT of yesteryear.   Come the next election  National will need a strong coalition partner if it is to win a fifth term.   Minor parties in coalition governments tend to perform less well than their senior partner.   Should Winston call it quits the NZ First could well sink without trace.


How Do You Solve A Problem Like ..........


Maria Winston?

September 23rd will go down in history as a day of flippancy in which a flibbertigibbet lost and a will 'o the wisp was made King Maker - yet again!

Winston Peters is the exception to the old financial rule - 'Past performance is no guarantee of future results.'    With him you get a 100% ironclad guarantee that future results will measure exactly past performance.

Who can ever forget the way the charlatan dragged out the process for weeks, milking every last ounce of publicity from it.  The only serious service he provided for his country was to rescue an unhappily married perverted poof from an LAX toilet.

So, what is Blenglish to do?

Here's what Adolf would do.

I'd sit down with the drunken dwarf and slowly offer him the world.  Start low and work up a bit at each meeting.   Let just the smallest hint of the word prime minister intrude.  Then watch the media circus go mad.

Then, when all appears nearly settled, I would call a press conference at which I would announce a coalition deal has been struck with The Greens who, sans Me Tu, will make for a much more stable government than anything which relies on Winston Peters.

The Greens have no chance of being in any government with Labour and NZFirst so they are ripe for the picking.  Two cabinet seats and a couple of their saner environmental policies.




Ho Ho Ho

ON NORTHLAND

12.25 and just got back home from our election party at the Pioneer Tavern at Waipapakauri.    Packed to the rafters with many new (and young) faces.   Some nervous moments but once the Kerikeri/Paihia booths came in  it was all over rover.   Winston's 5,500 majority evaporated into a 1,292 win for National's Matt King.

Must have been a huge gnashing of teeth from the 33 person media contingent at Winston's bash at the Duke of Marlborough.   Clearly they expected him to win but all he did was to pack up shop early and skip back to Paihia on the ferry.   The one journo at our function had a scoop on the King victory.

No concession or congratulatory call from Peters.   Perhaps he was hurting too much having been ejected by the voters from three seats during his time in Parliament.    But the loser becomes a winner per courtesy of MMP ... funny that a Party polling less than it did in 2014 and ending up with two fewer MPs gets to choose who forms the next government.     More about that in later posts.

Good Morning.

Saturday, September 23, 2017

Whenever he's Wrong He's Right

Watching all the davids, legbuts and other assorted lunatics from the left accuse President Trump of everything bad you could ever think of, I'm reminded of the many times they and others have fallen flat on their faces.

Not too long ago it was the shock horror and outrage over the president's tweet concerning surveillance of him and his campaign staff by Obama.   Guess what?  Turned out to be absolutely true.  Trouble is, they thought Hillary would win and nobody would find out.

In recent days the same lunatic left have been all a flutter over the President's speech to the UN in which he threatened to totally destroy North Korea should it attack the US or its allies.  The Norker Porker responded by announcing his intention shortly to explode a hydrogen bomb over the Pacific Ocean.  I can't recall whether this has been deemed by the President to be an act of war but one thing is for sure.

Unlike the davids and legbuts of this world, China certainly takes president Trump seriously and has just announced restrictions on oil supply to North Korea.   So, once again, results show this president was and is on the right track.

"China says it will limit oil supplies to North Korea under UN sanctions, stepping up pressure on Pyongyang over its pursuit of nuclear and missile technology.The Commerce Ministry in Beijing said on Saturday that China, the North’s main trading partner and energy supplier, would limit supplies of refined petroleum products starting on October 1.It said Beijing also would ban imports of North Korean textiles, one of Pyongyang’s last major sources of foreign revenue following repeated rounds of UN sanctions.China has long been the North’s only major ally and diplomatic protector but is expressing increasing frustration with the government of Kim Jong Un.
Beijing’s status as the North’s main trading partner makes its co-operation critical to the success of economic sanctions."


Does anyone really think China wants a short fat maniac with a big bomb right on its doorstep?

How To Read The Australian Female Mind


They all think the same way, you know.  So when Jo Nurk's city wide discount fashion house has the same outfit on special, here's what happens.

These six broads (literal description) turned up at a friend's wedding only to find their exclusivity was in doubt.

Six wedding guests in identical dresses pose for a photograph with the bride

Adolf understands they all work at the same pie factory in Sydney.

WORDS FAIL ME

The news that pupils at Blockhouse Bay Intermediate have been forced by their principal to write letters of apology to the Warriors after apparently asking them 'inappropriate' questions when they visited the school to whit #1 why the team lost so often and #2 where they sat on the competition ladder.

The principal, a Mr Malins, said the questioning was not in keeping with the school's values.

Give me strength ... what values are these?   That thou shall not ask hard questions?    Questioning is an important part of learning  and must not be discouraged.  Those kids are only asking what the whole of the New Zealand Rugby League world are asking.  

To dump on them for that is stupidity beyond belief.

Election Blackout

You don't need me to tell you the rules.  Any smart arse seen commenting on any author's blog at No Minister will receive short shrift.

How effective is this blackout anyway?

I can understand a prohibition on physical campaigning on the day and I think I comprehend the reasoning behind the implementation of the original electronic news black out.  This was a time when radio and tv were the only means of electronic broadcast.

However, Australia has no such blackout and the Ockers seem to have survived many elections intact.

Further, in today's Twitter, Facebook, Blog environment, the blackout seems to me to be somewhat anachronistic and ineffectual.  For example, if someone like me, living in Australia, were to produce a blog in which are made countless exhortations to vote for X candidate and give Y candidate a kick in the arse, which then received viral readership in NZ on election day, could I be prosecuted by the NZ Electoral Office?

I don't know but somehow I doubt it.

What do you think.

Remember, keep it clean.

PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT

For those of you who enjoyed the TV program from which this blog derives its name and be aware that Jones2 is running continuous episodes of No Minister/No Prime Minister through until early evening.

KUDOS TO CHINA IF CORRECT

The news that the Chinese Central Bank has directed all other Chinese Banks to cease their dealings with North Korea is encouraging ... if true.

That, combined with sanctions on the export of textiles and coal from the rogue state along with the drastic cutting of oil supplies, will impact hugely on the North Korean economy.

I say 'if true' because you never know ... reality has a way of 'trumping' words especially in the murky world of international banking.

But any move short of war to force North Korea to neuter its attempt to develop a fully operational nuclear strike force is to be applauded.

Both President Trump and  Kim Jong-Un are becoming prisoners of their own rhetoric.   The threat by North Korea's Foreign Minister, Ri Yong Ho that they are considering carrying out a nuclear bomb test in the Pacific, if carried through, would probably be the catalyst for military action.  

We live in very dangerous times remembering that New Zealand is still, technically, at war war with North Korea.

Friday, September 22, 2017

Gilbert and Sullivan, Lewis Carrol, J M Barrie.



The Electoral Commission employs bits of all three as departmental strategies it seems.

I accept the almost invisible quango has a very light hand in maintaining a semblance of probity around enforcing the many often stupid laws around the election bits of our democratic process.
However my take on current management and enforcement has me totally dismayed and disillusioned..

Democracy and its siblings free speech, freedom of religion, freedom to associate, freedom to vote rely on personal responsibility of the individual to ensure the survival of the whole package. Too many have given their lives to protect and defend these basic tenets.

Of course such nefarious ideology is anathema to communists and their neo socialist fellow travelers who rely on ignorance, fear and coercion to force the peasants  into line.

Why I ask does a main focus of those who are charged to administer the voting bit of democracy seem to be entirely targeted at enrolment and voting while they ignore entirely, breaches of the simple tenets of a voter taking responsibility for their availing themselves of the opportunity free from coercion?

This year the dim bulbs of the Commission have outdone all previous efforts to overcome complacency and laziness that have increasing numbers not bothering to vote.
If it is too hard for a voter to make sufficient effort to get to a polling station having already done the enrolment bit as required by law, then imho their vote is more than likely to be worthless either from a lack of committment or insufficient understanding of the issues, and therefore better that vote be discounted.

Having people going around rest homes to manoeuvre people into a vote when the fact that if such assistance is required then it is highly likely the assistant may well control where the vote ends up.
The same, when as revealed in anecdotal evidence, teachers taking a class to an "early voting facility"  to enrol and vote, from school, something that is OK before the official Polling day but apparently proscribed on polling day, such activity is fraught when it is statistically probable the teacher is biased to one particular loyalty.
There were reports of coercion by "employers" when they were merely pointing out the salient fact to employees that a socialist Government may well lead to commercial retraction and job losses. for the company. Such factual guidance apparently being very bad and should be outlawed, sheesh.

Has anyone knowledge of a prosecution for failing to enrol? an offence, presumably with sanction for anyone 18 years or older failing to comply?

The rules around funding, signage, campaigning and voter coercion may as well all be scrapped as compliance is entirely voluntary and prosecution for non compliance so rare as to be seen as unfair.

How is collecting up voters and taking them to a polling station never seen as coercion? I have sometimes flirted with ringing Labour or the Melons for a hitch to the booth just to be bloody minded but at the same time fully aware they may well not have a car available LoL.

Media bias is rampant and seventy something thousand souls making a petition to have Hosking replaced as debate monitor merely because he resists the herd mentality that prevails amongst the sad bastards misnamed as Journalists who together make up "The Media Party" as a force in all elections, but one minor piece of evidence.

So call me simple, enrolling as required by law with updates as to change of address, then getting off ones posterior to get to a Polling Booth between 0900 and 1700 hours on one day out of over one thousand one hundred, is too hard, give me strength.
Yes some will have to make alternative arrangements because they are out of their electorate, working, sick or needing some other form of  dispensation but the current circus with clearly labeled party aficionados assisting morons in malls, supermarkets et al is just too cheap and artificial, not forgetting being open to skulduggery.
If voting is so casualised and apparently not important then don't bother, just leave it to the grownups while the stupid and moronic behave like grasshoppers, dancing, playing and enjoying theirselves.

WIFE VS PARTNER

Yesterday I was mailed an official NZDF publication.    It contained an article about a serving officer and her wife.    How can that be I thought?   Husbands are defined as males and males have wives.    Females in a relationship and surely they are partners.

This is pc nonsense gone mad.   If this makes me homophobic then I guess I am which comes at a bit of a shock really as those that know me have always considered me a liberal when it comes to the same sex debate.

Perhaps, just perhaps, I'm being left behind in the 'modern' world.

p.s.   I'm now in an election-free zone.


Friday's Fulminations

There is mild moderation.  Normal rules of blogger etiquette and courtesy to blog hosts will apply.with serious transgressors being thrown out.

Unfortunately our system does not allow your comments to show up in the blog post itself.  Just in the comments section.

Visitors might consider the wisdom of using moderate language.

Regards

Adolf'

Thursday, September 21, 2017

All Over The Place (Updated)

The last two major polls are not consistent so everything is up in the air.

I'm going to average these two polls and then make a prediction, slightly tinge with wishful thinking.

Poll average:-

Party                  Party Vote                  Seats

ACT                          0.5                      1
Green                        7.5                      9
Labour                     37                      45
Maori                        0.8                      2
National                  46                       57
NZ1st                       6                         7

I reckon ACT will do a bit better than the poll average and might get up to 2.0% which would give them two seats.

So my prediction is for a Nat/Act/Maori coalition by a slim majority.

So, now all that remains is to reserve a fine bottle of Coonawarra Shiraz for Saturday, sit back and watch the results come in.

Update

I meant to add, it's a shame the two major polls do not use a larger sample, say 1500, for their final two polls.





ON HEALTH

The reality is that 'Health' is a bottomless pit.   Whatever you spend on it will not be enough egged along by the simple fact that the 'industry' (and that includes you and me) are very good at 'shroud waving'.  

The demand on vote Health will continue to increase exponentially  driven by the reality of an aging population living longer.

Which makes refusal by Labour and NZ First to countenance the lifting of the age of entitlement to NZ Superannuation to 67 thereby freeing up hundreds of millions of dollars which could be redirected into Health spending totally unconscionable.

This has nothing to do with KiwiSaver ... KiwiSaver doesn't replace NZ Superannuation ... it's a top up to provide an enhanced level of retirement ... unless of course 'they' have a (another) secret plan to means test or reduce NZ Superannuation using KiwiSaver as an offset in order to free up funding for Health ... just askin.

  

Winston Doesn't Like The National Anthem

TVNZ is carrying a story in which Winston Peters is promising to change the national anthem.   Good old Winston - always right there with the critical hot button issues.

I nearly died laughing when I read this quote:-

He said that, anecdotally, he had never seen Kiwis sing the anthem in times of great joy or celebration, 

By hell, they will be on September 24th if NZ1st falls below five percent.  You'll hear the song of joyous rapture echoing from coast to coast.


Not Seen in the New York Times

Here's an interesting story from the Times of London.

All about a world leader quietly intervening behind the scenes and actually preventing an all out war in the Middle East.  The western leader showed remarkable diplomatic skill and statesmanship in persuading Saudi Arabia and its Sunni friend UAE from invading Shia Qatar..

Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmed al-Sabah, Kuwait’s emir, who has acted as mediator, praised Mr XXXXX's efforts at a September 7 press conference. “Thank God, what’s important is that we stopped any military action,” he said.
You've got to hand it to those suave smooth talking French statesmen, don't you?

Well, not today because the western leader in question was that presidential boorish bastard Donald Trump.

How long before the media and the Republicans wake up to the fact that Trump is a hell of a lot smarter than they are and a sight more competent?

The NYT, CNN, MSNBC, WAPO et al would have been going nonstop ape shit for days if this triumph had been pulled off by Obama.  So far, I've not seen a word apart from the NYT calling the effort a failure.

Somehow, I think the London Times has more credibility that the New York Times..

Wednesday, September 20, 2017

TAXCINDA ... STOP WHINGING

Ok, we know you're  behind in the polls and running scared (and yes I said 5 days is a long time in politics) but Bill English is entirely right in calling you out on your promise to raise taxes and your attempt to label that as fake news just makes you look silly.

Fact ... Labour has promised to repeal National's effective tax cuts due to take effect from 1 April 2018.

Fact ... Those cuts have received legislative approval.   They are part of the law of the land.

Fact ... were Labour to repeal that legislation they would be legislating for tax increases.

Slam dunk.

The delicious irony in all of this is that should Labour win and to repeal the legislation they would be relying on the votes of the Greens and/or Winston First who both voted for the cuts.   Their gymnastic contortions would be a sight to behold ... voting against your own legislation ... mind boggling.

Sorry Socialist Cindy ... your faux outrage doesn't wash and that's why you're 9% behind in the polls, down 7% in the same number of days. 

Doomsday This Saturday (2)

It might be for Winston Peters if the people at Colmar Brunton are right.



It comes after an intense week of campaigning which saw Jacinda Ardern make a U-turn on tax.


His party vote has plunged to just five percent and he won't hold Northland so there's every chance of a Winstonless gummint come Sunday.

I can't remember when the polls were so 'all over the place' but of course this one is CB not Reid Research and CB has consistently had Labour ahead.  Today they are a whopping nine points behind.

I haven't pushed this poll through the election thingy but it these results are borne out, then National and ACT may well have enough to scrape in on their own.  The Maori Party would be almost a cert to join in to keep Winston away from their precious Maori seats if he did make it.

This is why elections are such marvellous sport.

Doomsday This Saturday?

Apparently some group of religious nutters in the United States have been given a preview of NZ's general election result on Saturday.

"If you have plans for Saturday, you may want to move them up a day. You see, several media outlets are reporting numerologist David Meade's prediction that this Saturday, September 23, marks the day that the world will end.......
.........The problem with almost all of the reporting, though, is that the news reports connect David Meade's doomsday predictions with a Biblical prophecy ministry named Unsealed. "

Apparently Winston Peters is some nasty character hiding behind the pseudonym 'Nibiru.'

MORE MEDIA CRAP

I see the media are running a shock horror story (stoked along by Professor Jane Kelsey ... surprise, surprise) about the propriety of officials from MFAT attending a scheduled meeting of officials from the eleven countries still keen on developing a regional tree-trade agreement following the withdrawal on the United States from the TPPA.

It may be news to the media but the world doesn't stop for a country having an election and neither it should.    This is a meeting off officials for c*********s.     Their mandate is to develop a pathway forward.     It will be up to the incoming government to decide whether or not they want to travel the road ... remembering of course that Socialist Cindy is on record as saying she fully supports free trade ... cough, cough, snort.

The media is as shallow as a birdbath in much of their reporting.   If they were consistent in their thinking in respect of an election hiatus then they would be arguing that New Zealand should not be signing the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) which opens for signature in New York today ... fact is New Zealand was a major player in developing the Treaty and will be one of the first countries to sign up to it ... today ... as it should.


Fake News (Updated)

From the BBC, desperadoes who are learning fast from CNN.

Australia's warmest winter 'driven by climate change'


Thus sayeth the headline.

This, just days after (a) the world's climate alarmist industry has admitted their models are a crock full of fictitious shit and , (b) more telling, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has admitted it has been falsifying temperature data, resulting in official readings higher than the actual temperatures.

Funny thing is, people who have lived in Adelaide for sixty years tell me this winter has been the coldest they can remember and I can vouch for the fact it has been the coldest in the six years I've been here.

What the BBC should be reporting about Australia is that as the country dives deeper into debt and as productive industries close because of over-expensive and unreliable electricity supplies, Australia's politicians and media are obsessed with the notion poofters should be allowed to marry each other.

For what reason, nobody can explain.

Oh dear.  Now the ABC is reporting unprecedented heavy frosts in central NSW.

You'd think these bloody pinko media types could co-ordinate their propaganda, wouldn't you?

Update

The confirmation of shenanagans just keeps on keeping on.  Read the story and weep.  Whenever, the data showed a discrepancy between observation and modelling theory, somebody went in and changed the data to remove the discrepancy.  Hide the decline.

Again and again and again.


Tuesday, September 19, 2017

BLOODY HELL!



Comrade Peoples Princess has joined her media party mates in calling National responsible for the serious disruptions resulting from the kerosene pipe line failure.

Back in the early 1980s the refinery that was the target for everyone opposed to National and the "think big" response to a world energy crisis caused by manipulation of world fuel prices and delivery by OPEC.

In moves that the socialist left decried from the most socialist PM National ever produced included some very extreme tactical opposition to The Clyde Dam, The Motunui Ethanol Plant, expansion of Glenbrook steel plant and of course the revamp of the NZ Refining outfit at Marsden Point near Whangarei.
In the later death throws of Muldoon's classic interventionist policies that The Then Labour Party opposed vehemently and now under the peoples Princess have given new life to, the daft idiot thinks if she can upgrade The Tauranga Line to "fast Rail" for a mere twenty million a second pipeline from the refinery to AKL will be a doddle.

Here is a News Update Cindy Darling.
Back in 1980 there was no bloody RMA for wet dreaming socialists to ejaculate over and the now failed pipe was installed in under a year go to woah.
Any attempt to lay a second pipe as back up and augmentation in response to the exponential increase of demand will cost more in consent costs than the original and will take a decade to get to completion.

That is what some of the more naïve thought Mr Key was gunner sort out, but then what would the shiney arses do for a living then.

Some more news Cindy darl, the freakin pipe is owned by NZ Refining a monopolistic entity owned and operated by big oil, yep them same dudes who your new luvvie mates inhabiting the melon patch continually undermine and condemn for ruining the planet. Never to a degree the hippycritters will ever avoid using the satanic bad buggers conveniences in frequent travel though.

Inconvenient truth is struggling to break through the pack-ice of  socialist and their media enablers desire to somehow project National as responsible for what is for some a total disaster.

TIME FOR ME TO GET OFF THE 'POT' ... YOU READ IT FIRST

OK, prediction time.   Yes, I'm a National Party activist but I think I know enough about politics to be able to edit out my subjective bias from these predictions.   Anyway (and acknowledging five days in politics is a long, long time) this is how I read it.

The polls are up and down like the proverbial 'whores drawers' and from that I adduce the two main parties are probably within spitting distance of each other.   Two weeks ago I would have said the momentum was with Labour; that momentum appears to have stalled with confusion around their tax policy and especially their water tax policy.    The other thing I take from the polls is that the Greens are trending up while Winston First is trending down.    I see these as important factors in making my predictions.

Two other points to consider in making these predictions.   I assess the 'wasted vote' (ToP plus rats and mice) to be in the order of 3-4%.   Given that you can effectively add 1.5% to both the National and Labour Party Vote.   That 1.5% could be crucial.    Second, I see the Maori Party as being edited out of the conversation.     Looking at National's options and Winston has made it clear his distaste for the Maori Party as race based while, for the socialists, any accommodation with the Maori Party could come back to bite in the Maori seats held by Labour.

Having said all that and my predictions (in order of probability) are  #1 ... a Labour/Greens coalition and #2 ... a National/ACT/NZ First coalition and #3 ...  a Labour/Greens/NZ First coalition.

Looking at each of these in a turn and to my good friend Psycho Milt yes, you can buy me a beer anytime.     A Labour/Greens coalition became more likely once Me Tu resigned.    Her anarchist tendencies would have created huge tensions around the cabinet table and one senses the Greens are reverting to a more environmental focus with her departure.   That Labour can handle.   But there will be tensions.   Ztev is Labour's bovver boy blogger.   On Kiwiblog he said (with a hint of malice) the best the Greens could hope for would be a ministerial position outside of cabinet.   So is Labour  going to play hardball?   Gonna be interesting to see whether the Greens, forever the spurned bridesmaid, are prepared to allow themselves to be 'poodled' in their desire to be part of government. 

A National/ACT/NZ First coalition would see National paying a price ... swallowing a dead rat(s) as Ron Mark eloquently put it.    The price might be too big.   Peters hates English with a passion remembering that English was a prime mover in having him expelled from National.   There is also the matter of Peters long standing feud with Speaker Carter.    Were Peters to demand their heads as the price for support then the deal would very much a moot.   But this is Peters last chance to exit Parliament on a high and Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister (and a 'K' at the end of it) along with two ministers inside cabinet and another outside might just be enough.   Whatever and be very clear ... it will be Winston and not his Party that makes the call.

Should Labour and the Greens fall short on the numbers then a Labour/Greens/NZ First coalition comes into play.   Everyone would be swallowing dead rats aplenty especially Winston who is on record in saying he would never serve in a government alongside Green Party ministers.   Nevertheless, necessity is the mother of compromise.   At best it would be a toxic coalition that would provide the opposition with much ammunition.

The election will be determined on the Party Vote.    However winning an electorate gives the Party status and there are a number of electorate contests that I will be following closely on the night.

Northland ... Paddy Gower has been on the Kool-Aid (again).   At the time of the by-election his prediction was that National would hold the seat.   This time round and he's picking Winston.   Leaving aside the Herald poll which suggested that Winston was running third behind National and Labour (I take that with a grain of salt) and I'm aware of other polls that show Matt King well in front and enjoying substantial name recognition (nipping at the heels of Winston).   A major factor is Labour.   Their candidate is well regarded and has run a full on campaign and looks to be picking up the 6,000 votes(and more) she shed to Winston at the time of the by-election in a nudge, nudge, wink, wink campaign and remembering too that Winston's majority is just 5,000..     Winston has run a less than energetic campaign supported by a very patchy electorate organisation and hamstrung by promises he made at the by-election ... free ferry travel for seniors; that he would fix the Mangawai sewage scheme debacle ... result nowt.    He perennially cries 'poor Northland' but the reality is the regional economy is booming with huge investment in infrastructure taking place.   Prediction ... Matt King to win.

Whangarei ... Peters has made much of his desire to turn Whangarei from Blue to Black/White thereby creating a NZ First power base in the greater Northland.   To do that he parachuted Shane Jones into the seat over the well regarded resident List MP Pita Paraone.   Then, to cap that he relegated Paraone to an unlikely position on the NZ First List.   Clearly loyalty to Winston is a one-way street.   The knee capping of Paraone has led to a spilt in the NZ First electorate organisation.    Clearly Winston sees Jones as his successor having worked out that his wannabee SAS current Deputy Leader is an electoral lightweight (except when it comes to rolling his predecessor).    Jones has repayed Winston's favor by being his usual lazy self expecting the electorate to be handed to him on a plate.   It won't happen.   Prediction ... Dr Shane Reti to win and win well.

Maungakiekie ... by any measure Maungakiekie is a 'bell weather' electorate encompassing both 'Blue' and 'Red' segments in approximate equal measure.   In any seismic shift to Labour the electorate is vulnerable following the retirement of the incumbent National MP, Sam Lotu tinga,   This time it's high profile Auckland Councillor Denise Lee who defeated long time Labour MP and sitting Councillor Dr Richard Northey to take the seat (increasing her majority last year by over 500%) vs Labour's trade unionist and apparatchik candidate.   Lee has run a high energy campaign and her networks allow her to stretch across the political divide so much so that there is evidence in the Panmure Basin (staunch Labour territory) that Labour voters are splitting their vote in her favor.  Prediction ... Denise Lee to win.

Papakura ... interesting (for other reasons).   This south Auckland seat should be vulnerable to Labour.   It ain't.   Judith Collins has a iron grip on it as a well regarded local MP.   Last time round and at the time of her 'troubles' her majority shrank to a tad over 4,000 down from just under 10,000 in 2011.  My picking is that she will increase it come election night against her no-name Labour candidate.   That's important.   Should National lose there will be a leadership contest.   Collins represents the National Party centre-right.   She is a 'no prisoners' politician.   She would be a very effective leader of the Opposition.   Prediction ... Judith Collins by a country mile.

Tukituki ... National is defending a 6,500 majority and with the retirement of Craig Foss they chose the long time Hastings Mayor, Lawrence Yule, as their candidate.   So far so good and then came the Havelock North water contamination crisis with the fault laid squarely at local and regional government.     Labour re-selected their 2014 candidate who, while lacking in substance, is both  telegenic and energetic.  If nothing else changed it was points to Labour but then, among came the 7th Cavalry to the rescue in the form of Labour's water tax policy which has gone down like a lead balloon in an electorate where irrigation is a major issue.   Prediction ... Lawrence Yule to win.

Te Tai Hauauru ... I am happy to admit that the more I know about Maori politics, the less I know. 
Nevertheless I will be watching this result with interest which pits the high profile Maori Party candidate Howie Tamati, CEO of Sport Taranaki and former Rugby League International and President of the New Zealand Rugby League and long time New Plymouth District Councillor  against Labour's almost invisible Adrian Rurawhe who won the seat off the Maori Party following the retirement of Tariana Turia.   Polls in the Maori seats must always be treated with caution but I am aware that a number of them show Tamati in front.   Prediction ... too close to call.

Hutt South ... National's Chris Bishop has been working this seat hard for the past six years so much so that the incumbent MP, Labour's Trevor Mallard, decided to cut and run for the safety of Labour's List.    They chose a carpetbagger in preference to a local and, word on the ground, is that she has failed to make much of an impact.    Last time round it was only Mallard's personal following that got him over the line while National won the Party vote by over 6,000.    Prediction ... Chris Bishop to win.

Ohariru ... National haven't won Ohariru since 1981 (on quite different boundaries).   Since 1994 it has been held by Peter Dunne in various guises.    Dunne bailed early on in the campaign when his own polling saw him losing to Labour.   In 2014 National won the Party vote by some 10,000 over Labour.   Despite this I suspect their candidate, List MP Brett Hudson, has a long road to hoe against a high profile Labour candidate made just a bit easier by the volte face by the Greens to run a candidate after earlier agreeing to stand aside to give Labour a clear run.   Prediction ... Labour to win.    United Future to sink without trace.

Christchurch Central ... there's something in the water in the socialist republic of Christchurch that designates them an ornery lot and yes, they've been through a pretty rough time.   But it seems that for them, everything the government does (and its government money that's paying for much of the rebuild) is wrong.   Then there was the Christchurch Cathedral debacle where it was less than edifying to see all political parties trying to outbid each other to restore a single church ... what about all the other churches that were destroyed?   That aside, Christchurch Recovery Minister Nicky Wagner has her work out out defending a 2,400 majority against a Labour candidate promising untold riches for the city should they win.   Prediction ... Labour to win.

So, there it is folks.    Don't get too het up if you disagree.   It's only me and one thing I'll guarantee ... no matter the result it will rain somewhere in New Zealand on Sunday.

Sheesh, this was a long post ... no apologies.

Updated 2.41 ... one final point in respect of the negotiations that will take place following the election.    Accepting that NZ First has more position bottom lines than the Kama Sutra but if they are determined there should be a referendum on the Maori seats then only National can agree to that.
Labour can't for obvious reasons.  



Comment of the Day

"Under Herr Hitler, the Germans invaded other countries and made the people of other countries miserable. Under his daughter, Frau Merkel, the Germans invade their own country and make their own people miserable. It seems like German rulers love invasions so much that if they can't invade other countries, they invade their own country."


Whence came this comment?

Who cares?

Sunday, September 17, 2017

Ho Ho Ho Ho

Friday, September 15, 2017

A Bit Of A Mess

The opinion polls, that is.

David Farrar has some discussion on this phenomenon over at his place where he uses the term 'diverging polls' to describe the consistent inconsistency between Reid Research and Colmar Brunton.
Reid Research consistently shows National in front while Colmar Brunton just as consistently gives Labour the lead.  These are not the stuff of credible results.

  • 30 August Colmar Brunton Nat 41%, Lab 43% = Lab +2%
  • 30 August Reid Research Nat 43% Lab 39% = Nat +4%
  • 6 Sep Colmar Brunton Nat 39% Lab 43% = Lab +4%
  • 11 Sep Reid Research Nat 47% Lab 38% = Nat +9%
  • 13 Sep Colmar Brunton Nat 40%, Lab 44% = Lab +4
David seems unable to provide a logical explanation for these 'divergences.'  He remarks that recently his polls at Curia also have diverged from those of Colmar Brunton.

I suggest people should look at the empirical evidence.   For both sets of polls to be accurate would require a rapid fluctuation of public opinion with wild changes occurring every three or four days.  I don't think that chance is much greater than zero.

I think there is something fishy going on at Colmar Brunton.   Either deliberately or innocently there seems to be a problem there which skews the result towards Labour.

Why would I be surprised when the client paying for the poll is the television arm of Labour and the Greens?

Of course the one thing which goes without saying is that these volatile polls are telling the Gnats to fight hard right up to September 23rd.

When it's all over, I'd be very interested to see an independent auditor go into all the major polling companies and examine their respective methodologies used for this campaign.  The industry might regain some credibility if it did just that.

















Friday's Fulminations

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Regards

Adolf

Thursday, September 14, 2017

I like not this poll, bring me a better one


And lo, a better one was brought:

1 NEWS / Colmar Brunton Poll results for tonight, Thursday September 14
Labour Party      44% (last week - 43%)
National Party    40% (last week - 39%)
Green Party        7% (last week - 5%)
NZ First             6% (last week - 9%)
TOP                  2% Steady
Maori Party        1% (last week - 2%)
ACT Party          0.6% 

Ooh, this one has a Labour/Green government not needing any other coalition partners.  I like this poll much better!  Too bad an individual poll isn't worth anything, I guess - this one would be a keeper if they were.

KINDA SEZ IT ALL





and lets not even talk about tax policy (although the water tax policy remains in extant ... minus numbers ... along with regional petrol taxes along their cow fart tax along with and along with) and u-turns and Captains calls and flip flops.