Friday, February 28, 2020

The Great Democrat Clown Race of 2020 - Woke and Socialist Lanes


There's only two here now, and one of them is barely in the Woke Lane, certainly not to the degree that the Karmala Harrises, Cory Bookers and Justin Castros of the world were before they quit.

Elizabeth Warren (Lecturer, Massachusetts)
Sanders main competitor in the "Socialist" lane, who was also hoping to gather up the Woke lane as all the People of Colour (TM) quit. She peaked in the national polls around October and has been steadily slipping ever since.

A slump can never be pinned on one thing but November was when the attacks began on her farcical Medicare For All (MFA) plan, particularly how it would be paid for, which she was vague about. Again, Bernie is honest: his MFA will call for big tax increases and wiping out private health insurance and he does not shrink from that.

Nurse Ratched reporting for duty!
Even before Iowa, Warren had been giving all the signs of a drowning candidate: pulling stupid stunts such as the fight with Bernie over his supposed comment that a woman could not win against Trump; the strange question in the Senate about falling confidence in the Chief Justice (then overseeing the impeachment), and comments on allowing some transgender child a veto on her choices for Education secretary. She did not do well in Iowa and was pulling back on campaign spending even before Nevada.

That of course is the reason she's suddenly started taking super PAC money. In nearly every debate clip I’ve seen, she has made a big deal out of how she was not taking any super PAC money. Mouse gotta' run, cat gotta' hunt. But doing such a thing normalises her into being just another politician, which is death in this era.

Having said that, I thought her candidacy was going nowhere in  early 2019 which also had her polling poorly. Yet she rose steadily all summer and into early fall, led in multiple early states and was the one top-tier member that was exciting crowds on the trail! But it's all about trends; she rose, was examined, and is now falling and that usually does not produce a second life in a multi-candidate field. If the likes of Biden, Buttigieg and Klobucher all quit then Warren might have a chance of grabbing their votes from the "Moderate" lane and without pivoting and pandering, simply because that lane thinks Bernie is the arsonists choice for 2020.

But they're not going to quit soon enough. If anything it'll be Warren who quits before them and she seems to be angling towards becoming Bernie's VP choice, judging by her constant attack dog role against Bloomberg and refusal to go after Bernie's juicy history.

Still, such a role, let alone a brokered Convention, requires schmoozing and Lizzie lacks the warm touch of a human. She's basically the 13th Cylon.


Bernie Sanders: (Communist, Vermont)

And so we come to the great survivor. The 78 year old who has kept the True Communist flame burning in his tiny heart even as he watched his utopias collapse over the last thirty years.

The man who survived losing to Hillary Clinton in 2016 and a heart attack in 2020. Sanders charged out of the gate with his claimed win in Iowa (thanks to the Dem count screwup we'll never know for sure), then bagged NH and Nevada.

He also won NH in 2016 against the DNC candidate, Hillary Clinton, and this time his opposition was much more fractured. Vermont borders NH so Bernie was well known and any politician who is genuine about his principles is appreciated there, and there's no question that Bernie truly believes and is 90% honest about his beliefs. It's the basic reason that others have fallen away in his Far Left lane; why vote for fakes like Warren when you can have the real thing.

He’s currently lapping the field in California. By the time the dust settles on Super Tuesday, he could be sitting on a considerable stack of earned delegates.

The only thing standing in his way now is Bloomberg's billions devoted to a 100% attack campaign on Bernie, which is likely to happen, judging from interviews with Bloomberg staff in recent days.

But I'm not sure even that would work in this Democrat primary season.

The reasons why - despite Bernie presenting a target-rich environment - are many and varied, but I'll start with Matt Taibbi writing about the last thirty years of the Democrat Party in the USA, because he knows how to write angry, Yesterday’s Gone: Iowa Was Waterloo for Democrats:
To get out, they sold out. A vanguard of wonks like Al From and Sen. Sam Nunn at the Democratic Leadership Council devised a marketing plan: two middle fingers, one in each direction.
...
They would steal financial support for Republicans by out-whoring them on economic policy. The left would be kneecapped via “triangulation,” i.e., the public reveling in the lack of choices for poor, minority, and liberal voters.
In short, much the same drivers that Trump cottoned on to in 2016. It's one reason why many Bernie supporters were convinced that their man would have done better against Trump than Hillary did, especially in those "Blue Wall" states of the Mid-West. There sat Democrat voters desperate to hear from their leaders that they and their little wage and salaried jobs and their lives and towns and culture still mattered. There's no question that Bernie would have delivered that message with passion and conviction - but Trump got there first and Hillary never bothered.

Which raises the question of whether such people, having voted for Obama in '08 and '12, then Trump in '16, will turn away from Trump? Had he been the same sort of GOP squish on their issues as other GOP leaders have been, that might have been possible. But the best wage and salary increases in the last three years have been precisely for low-wage workers, not to mention the rest of a roaring economy. Those people feel that Trump has delivered specifically for them, and no amount of propaganda from Bernie and the Democrats will dent that: only a recession would.

But there's also the fact that America has changed in the decades since the last hard Leftist Democrat, George McGovern, went down to a landslide defeat in 1972, as shown by this recent article in Reason on Millennials and "Socialism":
The Pew Research Center found that 43 percent of 18-29 year olds had a positive reaction to the word socialism, compared to 33 percent of 30-49 year olds, 23 percent of 50-64 year olds, and 14% of 65+. The older you get the more you hate socialism.
It's this sort of thing that has always got the modern Left super-excited; yet another hangover of the Cultural Revolution of the 1960's and all those wonderful youth protests against "The Square's, Maannnnnnn", which have produced a fifty year siren's call of The-Youth-Are-With-Us-Marching-Because-History-Is-On-Our-Side. This was most recently heard in 2009 after Obama's big win and the Democrats increasing their majorities in the Senate and House: frequent were the triumphant cries that the GOP better get on board with all the wonderful new ideas of the Democrats lest they be left behind by history as a mere rump Party of Old White Men.

Heh!

Part of the reason this never seems to happen is the simple fact that as people get older they begin to encounter things like the job market, as well as taxes and debt, which can be very crushing to dreams.



And of course there's another form of learning that occurs, as Reason explains:
A new Reason-Rupe report on Millennials finds that young people are more favorable to the word "socialism" than a government-managed economy, even though the latter is less interventionist. Millennials don't like government intervention in the economy when you spell it out precisely, rather than use vague terms like "socialism."
...
In fact, millennial support for a government-managed economy (32%) mirrors national favorability toward the word socialism (31%). Millennial preferences may not be so different from older generations once terms are defined.
And this is precisely why Bernie constantly yammers on about how he only wants to make the USA like the Scandanavian countries and why he blathers on about "Democratic Socialism" - nowadays. Vagueness is the key to fooling people.

The other downside to claiming that "The Youf Are With Us", is that they continue to be useless voters. As usual much has been made of Bernie getting the youth all excited but the reality is that Iowa and Nevada had lower turnout than the last contested primary. New Hampshire had somewhat higher turnout, but the increase was concentrated in areas won by his opponents!

If Bernie is selected as the Democrat nominee there will be time to look deeper into him, his history and his policies and plans. In terms of state primary wins and delegates I think he's already got it, but the real question is around the DNC and those "Superdelegates" at the Democrat Convention. The Democrats increasingly accept Bernie's positions on many things (thanks AOC), as the rather feeble hits on him at the last screechfest debate demonstrated - but they're terrified that he'll present them unvarnished in the General Election and break that wall of vagueness that might cause even Millennial voters to say "Whoah - I didn't know it meant that".

Bernie has been smart enough to talk of "Social Democracy" and Sweden, but sooner or later the true flame that he has nutured deep in his soul will burst into the open, especially when Trump starts spelling out exactly what Medicare-For-All and the New-Green-Deal will mean in practice for the voters, including the great American bete noir - increased taxes. In Bernie's case, massively increased taxes.

Meantime, I'm grabbing another big bag of popcorn while watching what happens in South Carolina this Saturday and in many states next Tuesday.

17 comments:

Psycho Milt said...

"In breaking news, people in very conservative country with large population of religious fundamentalists tend to dislike socialism. More on this fast-breaking development after our in-depth look at why Scandinavian countries have so few televangelists."

Tom Hunter said...

One of the things I appreciated about the US when living there was how many atheists hated socialism.

"Seppo Renfors" said...

One of the things that surprised me about the US when living there was how many Evangelicals hated Jesus.

RosscoWlg said...

In more breaking news, unknown to our special correspondent Milt, with the biggest dynamic economy on the planet, the biggest GDP per head, and biggest opportunities to get ahead, the population tend to dislike Socialism in all its overt and covert forms.

In even faster breaking news that Milt, our not so special correspondent, maybe isn't aware of, Bernie praises Castro, Bernie's honeymoon was 2 weeks in Russia, perhaps a bit further than Milt even conjectured. Democrat hierarchy really worried.

More news flashes and breakages as they come to us.... Uh oh, just in, Milt's being moved to the Sports Department

Tom Hunter said...

I have my issues with writer Kevin Williamson but he nails Sanders here:

Does Senator Sanders bear in his heart some secret love for Fidel Castro or the Bolsheviks? Possibly. But that is not the relevant question. Senator Sanders has come to this point not because of what he loves but because of what he hates. He is naturally sympathetic to the Soviets and the Chavistas and the Castros because they hate what he hates: American power, American prosperity, the American way of life.

Common causes are made by a common enemy.

Anonymous said...

RosscoW is that the same country with more people in jail per capita than any other OECD country, the one with biggest homicide rate, mass shooting rate highest mortality rate for those without medical insurance.

Not to mention the highest suicide rate and the worst education for the lower socio ecoonmic groups.

Paradise if you are healthy and wealthy.

Tom Fumm

Anonymous said...

If Bernie Sanders is Communist then John Key is a Stalinist. What a great pile of steaming excrement you produce. You cannot just write a normal summary it has to be full of misinformation, sly digs and lies.

Democratic socialism is what we have here and have had it for 70 years under Labour and National, and it is a part of Sanders manifesto It's not fucking communism you plank.

If you were born here here you would know how it helped you and your family.

It was the labour govt of 1943 that passed the farm settlement act that enabled returned men particularly POWs to purchase farms they could not normally afford.

Petri Dish

Snowflake said...

Literally anyone is better than the incumbent, who has lurched from being impeached for trying to force a foreign leader to investigate his political opponent to telling lies about his incompetence in managing a pandemic and thereby crashing the stockmarket, which he has spent three years bragging about. So crap on, Tommy, crap on. Popcorn indeed.

Tom Hunter said...

ORANGEMANBADSECONDCOMINGOFGODCHOSENONE!!!!!! - SQUAWK

Anonymous said...

Free education and health care, free dental care, uni paid for by the NZ taxpayer Tom, you did all right out of nasty democratic socialism. Jeez, talk about biting the hand that fed you.

Petri Dish

Tom Hunter said...

If you were born here

Woah. We can add that to the list I compiled for 'arry the other day:

- "Russian trolls"
- "divisive"
- "these very same insults being hurled around on social media"
- "Holden, Blake, Snowflake etc are there on demand"
- "it's all smoke and mirrors"
- "it has weakened the EU considerably, this is not good"

Or 'Orrible 'arry', St Thomas d'abitot and several other pseudonyms.

Why it's as if you're speaking with one voice! 😁😃

Anonymous said...

Why is it you never answer the questions/accusations and fire off at a tangent attacking the posters instead of the message. Over 60,000 hits on this site in a month and you think that they are all the same person. Paranoia on steroids.

Unless you have a bot bumping up the clicks in which case I will have to admit I am that person :-)

Does your list have..

- "Sanders Communist"
- "Warren 13th cylon"

Cordially yours,

Everyone

Yossarian

Tom Hunter said...

Why is it you never answer the questions/accusations

The answer is in your question: "accusations" are the work of trolls who apparently are more obssessed by me than any topic written about here.

Similarly with questions that are off-topic - such as not talking about the struggle between Warren and Sanders or the likelihood or not of Sanders winning the Democrat Party nomination. If questions about socialism and the USA are mixed in with some thought along the lines of the original OP then that's fine, but I'm not going to rise to the bait in our limited comments section about NZ socialism light vs US socialism light or whatever. That can wait for an OP.

Anonymous said...

Gosh, thanks master. My thighs quiver with anticipation. I have always been a fan of do as I say not as I do.

Herman Goering

Tom Hunter said...

See what I mean.

By contrast I'll add some information about the Sanders-Warren race that appeared after my OP: he's leading her in Massachusetts, which is her home state as Senator.

If he wins then it really will be the clearest indicaton that she should quit. It's her own Democrat Party voters saying that as much as they like her as their Senator they don't think she cuts it as President.

Would any of you like to pick up on that and run with it in discussion?

Anonymous said...

No point, if we disagree you just shout rude words at us. A few days ago you called me an idiot for pointing out an obvious error in your thinking.

Tom Hunter said...

Now that's truly being a "snowflake" and I'm not talking of the one who comments here, who gives as good as he gets and doesn't whine about it. And he's called people idiots on here as well.

I've been called a lot worse and seen ruder words than "idiot", as have others on this blog, but that doesn't stop them or me from commenting.