Monday, February 24, 2020

The Great Democrat Clown Race of 2020 - Super Tuesday beckons

With the primary elections of Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada out of the way we now have a clearer idea of who is going to win the Democrat primary, and at this stage it's hard to see anyone overhauling Bernie Sanders.
Hmmmm - Bernie - and popcorn

Having said that, the Super Tuesday contests on March 3rd will be more competitive simply because they are so varied in terms of economies, cultures and population.

Aside from those factors the candidates are also forced away from comfortably focusing on individual states.

They have to spread money, time and other resources across multiple states at the same time. It's tough, which is why candidates have always made a big deal out of gaining "momentum" going into Super Tuesday, in terms of polling, previous wins, other candidates dropping out and the all important perception with both media and voters of being a winner.

Just as an aside the craziness of the caucus systems of Iowa involve coin tosses where there is a tie, while in Nevada:
If it’s a tie between two candidates at one of the precincts, a mint deck of cards is unwrapped (just like at the 21 table), cut a minimum of seven times and then drawn by representatives of the candidates. Aces are high, in case you’re interested, and, in the event of a tie, spades win, clubs lose.
Democracy in 21st century USA!

South Carolina stands in the way on February 29 and the main news there is that Sanders finally seems to have cracked the Black vote and started pulling them away from Biden, though that's likely as much a factor of Biden looking more like a loser than ever. The state is actually more important in the GOP nomination cycle because of what it portends for a GOP candidate in other Southern states. For the Democrats that is not so.

This election cycle Super Tuesday takes on even more importance because after years of being tail-end Charlie in the primary cycle with voting in June and therefore completely ignored, California finally decided to push themselves up the schedule and demand that their 415 Democrat delegates are fought for. The trouble is that the state imposes the greatest costs, including the most expensive TV advertising, and that runs the risk of crippling candidates too early.

California is the flipside of the South Carolina situation, being more important for Democrats as a reflection of where their voting mass is focused in the national election. Ironically Super Tuesday originally came about as a way for Southern States to compete against larger states in selecting a candidate.

Aside from California and Texas, with 415 and 228 delegates respectively, the other states voting on March 3rd will include Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia for a total of 1,617 total delegates to be gained by the candidates.

A brief look at where each candidate stands - and you should also have a read of Buchanan over at Kiwipolitico for a Leftist take on each:
  • Sanders - Won NH and Nevada and second in Iowa he's currently lapping the field in California and has money and all the usual grass-roots enthusiasm. Even CNN and MSNBC, who are terrified at the thought of him facing Trump, now think he's a winner.
  • Biden - Loser. Fading fast as I expected. As usual it's due more to his brain-mouth problem than being attacked by his opponents, who haven't bothered since Kamala Harris ripped him months ago. He likely will win South Carolina but it will no longer mean what it would have for the rest of the contest, and Bernie enthusiasm could bury him even there. Dead man walking. Did I say loser?
  • Warren - fading since October when opponents started pulling her Medicare-For-All plan to bits and she no longer looked so smart. Clumsy efforts in the Woke Lane that have been better at damaging Bloomberg and Buttigieg than pushing her own numbers up. This year's Chris Christie. Running out of money fast.
  • Buttigieg - Still in there but seemingly unable to crack the polls and take over the Moderate Lane from Klobucher and Biden, probably due to a growing sense of unease and distrust among Blacks, Hispanics and True Believing Progressives, including even the Woke Lane. That last being something he probably never expected because he's gay. Running out of money.
  • Klobucher - Ms. Minnesota nice has done well as Biden and others have faded but she's still the same bland, vanilla, Mid-Western Senator she always was. When she does show her claws it comes off less like Warren's solid attacks and more passive-aggressive whining. Also running out of money.
  • Bloomberg - His whole plan was always around Super Tuesday. Ignore the early contests, pour vast amounts of money into a staff ground game, TV adverts and Social Media and buy the votes. A war of attrition, much like his last NYC mayoral campaign that cost $170 per vote. But he had to step onto a debate stage sooner or later and when he did a few nights ago he got hit harder than Buttigieg did before NH. Polls show he lost a lot of ground in that debate. Not running out of money.
All of them will gain delegates from the March 3rd contest, with Bernie the overall winner. Under normal circumstances it would be all over, but as in 2016 these are not normal times. A contested convention may not be out of the picture since the others, no matter how badly beaten, think they could win the argument there with the Superdelegates that Bernie will crash and burn in the General election and take the Democrats with them.

1 comment:

Andrei said...

"Just as an aside the craziness of the caucus systems of Iowa involve coin tosses where there is a tie..."

The exact same system applies in little ol' NZ if there is a tie for an electorate seat.

Be that as it may we all know this is Trump's election to loose