Tuesday, December 3, 2019


On the latest Colmar-Brunton poll Winston First will not be back in parliament and National and ACT could form the next government.

On the back of that result the Fairy Princess was at pains this morning to argue that it would be a mistake to write Winston First off ... in one sense she was right, you should never do that ... but the subtext to her remarks is that Labour and Winston First are joined at the hip ... vote Winston First and you get a Labour led gummit.

I urge National to seize the opportunity and make it clear that National will, under no circumstances, go into coalition with NZ First as long as WRP remains their leader.      Winston would rather the question be left hanging ... it's to his advantage.     National can and should act to neutralize that advantage. 


pdm said...

I agree - kick him into touch now!!

Johno said...

Yep. Best thing Key ever did, biggest mistake English ever made...

Snowflake said...

The best thing Key ever did was make a meaningless promise he reneged on in subsequent elections? Wow, what a loser!

No way the Nats will do that no matter how it’s far-right flank screeches. They’re far too power hungry to have principles.


The Veteran said...

Yep Flake she does because she is a liar and and a flake just like you. If WRP and his motley bunch are the best thing going for her then you know the country is in real stuk.

Question ... how's your flagship policy of Kiwibuild going? Answer, less then 400 and once you factor in the rort of taxpayer money to buy Ihumatatao from Fletchers and the loss of 450 houses there then you're in negative territory. Another proud non achievement in this year of non-delivery.

Principles ... you and yours wouldn't know principles if it bit you in the bum.

Anonymous said...

Actually Snowflake, I admire Jacinda been PM, because they have no clue what they are doing and what they actually do ends up a failure.
In short they are pretty harmless, if incompetent, and it's like a live version of 'Gliding on'


Tom Hunter said...

They’re far too power hungry to have principles.

I know, right?

Not like all those Lefties who spent years decrying the racism, xenophobia, conservatism and all-round, hate-filled Right-Wingism of Winston Peters. Not to mention the back-stabbing aspect of how he betrayed all those Maori votes in '96.

I mean, if you were a real sort of snowflake - someone who melts if they're exposed to the evils of this world, as opposed to a black-hearted, cynical, ideological and partisan SOB - well you'd melt clean away rather than make a deal with such a person just because of your hunger for power.

But then there's 2005, and then 2017.

You know what? There's actually a comment from a Lefty in 2017 that I'm sure will shock a heart as pure as snow:

if Peters does hold the balance of power, I’d prefer that National endured the one-term, scandal-ridden clusterfuck of a government that would ensue.

Wish not granted.

Psycho Milt said...

Ahem - that quote is from me, and I feel I should point out it was eventually followed by this one:

Some victories are sweeter than others...

...because there are some victories that put you in mind of Ian Gillan singing "I will drink your cup of poison."

Here's hoping this particular victory doesn't turn out to be a Pyrrhic one. Still, for tonight at least, fuck yes! In your face, oligarchy of corrupt incompetents! The next three years at least we get to do without a government of the people, by the rich, for the rich. Chuffed.

So far, the victory isn't turning out to be a Pyrrhic one, despite NZF being their usual scandal-ridden clusterfuck selves. National's only hope for a victory next year is a Topham-Guerin-run social media blitz of fake news and attack ads.

Johno said...

"oligarchy of corrupt incompetents" Oh the irony.

Incompetent: Whaitiri. Lees-Galloway. Twyford. Davis. Clark. Curran.

Corrupt: Winston, Shane.

Labour is top heavy with incompetents and light with ability. And you know it. And sitting at the top as "leader" is someone who's life experience consists being a low level opposition spokesperson, a low level political apparatchik and fish & chip worker. And it shows with her complete and utter inability to manage her cabinet.

National had a 3 term honeymoon only broken by a hail=mary desperation move from Labour and mendacious Winston. I think the NZ voters will realise their mistake this year.

pdm said...

`Labour is top heavy with incompetents and light with ability.'

Johnno - proved this week by Nash not resigning or being sacked - there is no one to replace him.

Psycho Milt said...

Labour is top heavy with incompetents and light with ability.

That's my opinion of National, and as for its "leader," the less said the better. Thing is, people like us aren't objective observers.

I think the NZ voters will realise their mistake this year.

I don't get why people talk as though there were massive shifts in public opinion at elections. The centre-right is good for a vote share in the 40s, the centre-left is good for a vote share in the 40s, and the extremities or oddities among the parties take up the rest. Elections are decided on relatively minor shifts in those proportions. As an example, just look at TVNZ quacking on about Labour "plummeting" and a potential National victory in its reporting of its latest Colmar Brunton poll, when the numbers had actually changed by a fraction of the margin of error. There is no mass consensus to be had in general elections.

pdm said...

` Elections are decided on relatively minor shifts in those proportions.'

Milt you nailed it there.

I lived and voted in what was the Hastings (before Tukituki) electorate in the period 1968-1977 and as I recall 3 elections and results went something like:

MacIntyre (National)
Mayston (Labour)
MacIntyre (National)
Butcher (Labour)
Fenton (National

Note - I may have Butcher and Mayston the wrong way round.

Voting in such a marginal electorate made you feel as though your vote counted - unlike with MMP.

Johno said...

"I don't get why people talk as though there were massive shifts in public opinion at elections."

So you weren't paying attention after the transition from Little to Ardern in 2017 then?

Psycho Milt said...

The change in the centre left vote was relatively minor - Labour's increase was mostly at the expense of the Greens, so the overall share remained in the 40s. If you look at the number of seats, the previous government barely had a majority from 2014 - 2017 and this one barely has a majority for the current term, ie there was no massive shift in public opinion at the 2017 election, but the relatively small number who voted differently made a big difference to the outcome.

The Veteran said...

Milt ... you've got it about right but the real kicker is Winston First. Labour will struggle to form a government with the Greens. With NZF in play the dynamic changes because the enmity between Winston and National is such that their only option is to go with Labour. Winston ain't one for the cross-benches.

Tom Hunter said...

@ Veteran

I can't agree with your statement that, "Labour will struggle to form a government with the Greens.", given the following number comparisons that DPF did:

Winston First
2001 - 2.7%,
2010 - 3.1%
2019 - 4.0%

2001 - 6%
2010 - 4.5%
2019 - 7.0%

Both Winston First and the Greens are in a stronger positions now than they were at comparable stages of the most recent other governments.

It's not beyond reason that Winston could pass 5% in the 2020 election if they're on 4% now even after all the shit they've done. Granted that may not be enough to form a purely NZ First-Labour government but...

Given that Labour were willing to swallow Winston's demands in order to gain power they certainly won't baulk at Green demands next time, especially when the negative impacts of those fall on rural and provincial voters that Labour has largely given up on anyway. And those numbers suggest that the Greens this time would be "first cab off the rank" as opposed to the days of Helen. With a bit more experience Adern may decide to go with her heart and make it clear to Winston that he's negotiating from a position of relative weakness; that this time he's the one that will be on the outer rim of Cabinet power as a junior partner.

The Veteran said...

Tom ... your scenario is equally plausible especially if the Greens end up with more seats than NZF. But if NZF doesn't make it the dynamic changes and that was the point of my post.

Psycho Milt said...

In the 2017 election, 4.6% of voters had their vote binned and, effectively, forcibly re-distributed to the other parties. In 2014 it was even worse, with upwards of 6% binned. So, if NZ First falls below the threshold in 2020, there could in theory be up to 10% of the vote binned, to the great benefit of both National and Labour. That is of course why National and Labour are determined to keep the 5% threshold, but it's beyond me why anyone other than them would see that as a good thing.

The Veteran said...

Milt ... maybe, just maybe, people realise that tail wagging dog politics ain't a good thing.

Psycho Milt said...

I think it's more that the majority never has a problem with tyranny of the majority.

Johno said...

We have the tyranny of Mr 7% Winston dictating to Ardern & co what they can and cannot do. I think he repeatedly pulls the rug out from under Andrew Little just for for fun.