Thursday, October 17, 2019

Brexit oh Brexit....where art thou?

The end game apoacheth?….nope, like the Trump saga there is still a way to go before sanity prevails.

It was the leader of the free world (default position)) Angela Merkal who brought it to a head. She actually lost her temper and the elephant in the room finally come to the attention of the British public……. If the EU border is not in the Irish sea there is no deal, “Nth Ireland must stay in the customs union.”

Then funnily enough that’s all Johnson has talked about having gulled the public into thinking it was an unimportant detail for three years. A referendum is the only way out for the Tories now, it was always going to be because in spite of goading Corbyn to initiate a vote of no confidence in the govt to kick off a general election he failed.

An election before the leaving date may have resulted in a slight Tory victory but an election after a no deal exit would see the Tories eliminated as a party. Some ballot boxes would have to be flown into areas of Kent along with the rations because of minor road gridlock.

The Tories have nowhere to go now as the DUP has just kicked their deal into touch and as Corbyn quite rightly said the Queens speech was a farce “ A govt with a majority of - 43 and a 100% record of commons defeat is going nowhere”

It was always going to turn into a face saving exercise and Johnson must rue the day he introduced the WW2 language of confrontation to rally the troops…..

“ If the UK crashes out of the European Union without a deal at the end of the month, the government will be flooded by so many appeals for help from affected businesses that it will have to decide “who to save and who to let go”, a new report has warned.

The study by the Institute for Government said “no amount of preparation” by the government can eliminate the risks. Assessing ministers’ efforts to prepare the UK for no deal, it cited boxer Mike Tyson: “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.”
Thousands of businesses can be expected to be hit by an unpredictable range of problems ranging from the imposition of new tariffs and trading barriers to congestion at ports and airports, falling demand, a collapse in sterling, tighter credit conditions, and changes to the rules on the movement of data and people."

And just in..."The Republican terrorists warned they would take 'armed actions' against border infrastructure and anyone manning it.
A masked spokesman for the New IRA told Channel 4 News: 'We are the IRA, as reconstituted in 2012. There is only one such organisation. I have been mandated by the Army Council of the IRA to speak on its behalf.'...........shit looking for a fan.
Once again Vladdy is the winner. Having harnessed the power of social media in the west and supressed it  his own country he has destroyed Britains reputation as a sensible democratic country that the world looked up to as an example of parliamentary democracy.

Putin is a master at playing chess....our present leaders are experts at playing with themselves.

UPDATE:   a must read...history repeating....


Johno said...

Well, if it comes down to Boris's deal with a paper backstop, or tumbling out with no deal (and don't expect the EU to request any further delays) what are the wavering MPs going to do?

I expect they will select Hobson's choice.

Lord Egbut Nobacon said...

Holding a vote on a referendum on Saturday...........

Johno said...

Sez who? And the referendum would ask what? There's already been a referendum to invoke Brexit. You can't just keep holding them until you get the result *you* want.

If parliament does not approve the deal then more likely an immediate election not a referendum. That would be excellent as it would see the execrable Mr Corbyn's mob wiped out.

Or they UK can stay in paralysis and fall out with a no-deal default. The worst of the options.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Dream on Legbut.

I can see yet another huge loss for you looming on the horizon.

The Veteran said...

Egbut... spoken like the true Remainer you are and like all true Remainers you are opposed to any all deals. I don't have any skin in this game but it appears that this deal is the best the UK is ever going to get. There is no more for either the EU or the UK to give which makes any extension nonsensical. So Parliament will vote and it will be fascinating to see how it plays out remembering that at the last election both the Conservatives and Labour promised to respect the referendum result.

I suspect the Conservatives may just cobble together a majority with the DUP abstaining. That would see the UK exit quick smart. If that happens I see Johnson going to the country with Labour losing heavily and the Brexit Party fading away (what would the Brexit Party campaign on?). If Johnson fails to win the vote then it's all bets off.

This against a backdrop of Corbyn bottling it. Just why he didn't table a no confidence vote two weeks ago fair beats me.

Lord Egbut Nobacon said... I explained a no confidence vote would have triggered a pre brexit election. Johnson did his best to goad him into it but Corbyn stood firm.

It's not a deal it is not the end, it is the beginning of the end as it will be out on WTO rules which will be crippling to those industries who export to the EU.

In today's vote it is doubtful that Johnson will be able to get the numbers and if he fails it will go to a referendum vote.

A poll shows that both Nth Ireland, Wales and Scotland would have a remain majority of 80% now.....they are sick of being dictated to by the English.