Thursday, October 10, 2019


Canada goes to the polls on in eleven days time.    Pretty sure President Trump will be watching the result with interest following his 20 minuter 'chat' with Jacinda Trudeau.   Anything to take his mind off the developing backlash from previous Trump loyalists in the Senate over his decision to abandon the Kurds to their fate. One might be forgiven for thinking that with the Impeachment Inquiry underway the last thing the President would want to do would be to alienate Republican Senators ... but that's a story yet to be told ... I digress.

Justin Trudeau's Liberals go into the election holding 177 seats out of the 340 seats in the federal parliament.   His main rival, the Conservatives, hold just 95 seats.   The remaining seats are held by the New Democratic Party, Bloc Québécois; the Greens and the Peoples Party.

The Liberals have been hit by a series of scandals many involving Trudeau to the point where they and the Conservatives are running neck and neck in the polls.     Nevertheless and if I were a betting person my money would be on Trudeau forming a minority government with the support of the leftish New Democratic Party, born out of the Social Credit Movement and very much akin to Jim Anderton's Alliance Party which kept Labour in power here during the early years of the Clark Government.   The NDP currently holds 39 seats.

The Conservatives are not helped by the actions of the Maxime Bernier who chucked his toys out of the cot when he was defeated by Andrew Scheer in the election for a new Conservative leader and formed his own Party, the Peoples Party.   They will probably only win one seat (Bernier's) but the 2% they have siphoned off the Conservatives may be critical to the chances of the Conservatives forming government in their own right.    

Trudeau was the original 'lets do it' politician before St Jacinda came along.   The similarities are striking ... form over substance where words take precedence over action and always the stench of corruption.    With Trudeau it was his improper intervention in the criminal case involving SNC-Lavalin ... with Ardern the Sroubek affair, a couple of sex scandals and her failure to discipline NZ First for their blatant soliciting of votes against the promise of PGF monies.   Whatever, whatever ... Trudeau goes into the election with his halo severely dented and fighting for his political future.

Having said that I stand by my prediction.    It's a bridge too far for the Conservatives and Trudeau will form a minority government in association with the NDP which will see Canada moving substantially to the left ... you read it first.

p.s.   with the majority he had voters can perhaps be forgiven for asking what happened to this 2015 pledge by Trudeau "We are committed to ensuring that 2015 is the last election held under first-past-the-post."  For the record this election is also FPP.   In 2017 Trudeau walked away from his pledge ... one of many broken promises.   With him it's all about 'never mind the quality, feel the width'.   A politician's politician and as shallow as a birdbath.   Reminds one of Mrs Trudeau.


James said...

I have a strong interest in Canada having lived there for some time, with close family living there until very recently. is a good poll tracking site that shows where the ridings are that are likely to result in exactly what you say Vet - a liberal minority’s government with NDP holding the balance of power.

Trudeau is truly a wonder. He’s almost comically a self-parody, but thanks to FPP (MMP isn’t quite the worst electoral system in the world, probably the second worst) the ridings in Quebec and the Atlantic Coast will deliver the rest of the country to a bunch of woke leftists.

I did an army exercise with some Canadians earlier in the year. The anger they have for the liberal establishment was something to behold, as was their resentment against the special privileges offered to French Canadians. But they were also resigned to their fate... sounded eerily familiar

Lord Egbut Nobacon said...

James.....can you explain special privileges for us this the army or the quebecois as a population group.

James said...

Egbut - both.

In the army, to progress beyond the rank of major one must be fully bilingual - a good idea in theory, in practice it gives Quebecois an advantage as they are more naturally bilingual. This results in people being promoted for their bilingualism rather than other aspects of competence.

In the civil service, there is the same requirement to be bilingual. Then on top of that, the Quebecois legal system is an antiquated 18th Century French one which only requires two or three years study to be a fully fledged lawyer in that province - these ‘lawyers’ then rise up the rank of the federal civil service in Ottawa and come to dominate the bureaucracy.

In addition to the bilingualism requirement, they were railing against a perception that tokenism required French Canadians to be represented everywhere.