Thursday, May 23, 2019

ON BREXIT FROM AFAR

I don't have a particularly strong view on Brexit per se but one can fairly comment on the shambles that has characterised the political process over the past two years.

The referendum was presented as binding.   David Cameron, the then Tory Prime Minister and dedicated 'remainer', was so convinced it would fail that he refused to allow for any contingency planning in the event of a Yes vote.    Post the result Cameron bottled it at the first opportunity and handed the reigns of government to Theresa May (also a remainer) whose first action was to try and lose an unloseable election.   From thereon-in it was all downhill for Brexit culminating in her latest 'New Deal' announced on Tuesday  where she offered Labour a vote on a second referendum as well as concessions on a customs union.    The outrage in Tory ranks was palpable.   Within hours Andrea Leadsom resigned her cabinet post while the number Tory MPs pledged to vote against her Withdrawal Bill quickly reached 65 ... more than double who voted (and killed off) May's previous offer.    By late yesterday the Bill was seen as dead in the water ... about as dead as May who acknowledged at the PM's Question Time that another PM would soon stand at the dispatch box.

The Tories should have bit the bullet right at the start and elected as Cameron's replacement a leader committed to making Brexit happen.

Labour  is not much better.    Jeremy Corbyn was, at best, a tepid remainder and was widely criticised within the party for his failure to campaign actively against Brexit and now, while saying he respects the referendum result, he is reduced to arguing that a second referendum presents the only way forward.   Bollocks.

The idea that you can keep holding referenda until you achieve the result you want makes little sense. Vote Yes again and where does it leave you?    Vote No and the millions who voted Brexit first time round are betrayed.   It undermines faith in the whole political process.   That's too high a price.   

Only the Liberal-Democrats and Nigel Farage's Brexit Party (read UKIP that was) can hold their heads high in this whole sorry mess.   They, at least, remained true to themselves.   They understood what Brexit meant and campaigned accordingly.

So what will happen now?   My money is on May gone by Sunday.   The Tories will have a new leader and my money would be on Boris Johnson.   With him at the helm it will be full steam ahead on Brexit and damn the torpedoes ... and the Tory Party will never be the same again.

One final comment and if we take nothing from the Oz election result it is to beware of polls but ... Poll tracker (the poll of polls) and looking at likely voting intentions in the elections for the European Parliament due to take place Thursday (Friday NZ time) has the Brexit party riding high with 33% support followed by Labour on 20% the Lib-Dems on 16% and the Conservatives on 11% with all the others (Greens/Change UK/SMP/UKIP/Plaid Cymru) as also rans.   Gonna be interesting to see how that plays out.

18 comments:

Andrei said...

Great Britain is not what it was what is was

Their fancy new aircraft carrier HMS Elizabeth has no planes and wont have for years so the US Marine Corps squadron are going to deploy aboard

And there is another aircraft carrier HMS Prince of Wales is due to be commissioned next year and wont have its F35s either

Tom Hunter said...

Meanwhile the drunken old soak, Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the EU Commission, has spoken out in his customary manner"These populist, nationalists, stupid nationalists, they are in love with their own countries,"

Chuckle. It's that sort of warmth, understanding and empathy that's made Junker and his Commission so respected and beloved across the EU. Great vote getter too.

For his opponents.

"Since Brexit ... the number of those in favor of the European Union is increasing because people are watching what is happening and they are seeing that leaving the European Union is not as easy as they were told."

Seriously, he thinks that's the angle to take with the Brexit folk? I can't imagine anything that could make them even more motivated to fight to escape. He should have added an Evil Laugh. I can see him as the next...:

MUHAHAHAH. There is no escape for you, Mr Bond

Give that man another brandy and a couple of Euro MP's to prop him up.

The Veteran said...

Tom ... priceless. Reminds one a little of Brezhnev on a good day.

Snowflake said...

So the “Veteran” has no idea what to do. Tommy doesn’t either, so he uses Google to come up with a comforting set of lies about why a hard Brexit will be only marginally catastrophic. It’s hilarious that you’ve put the house on Boris Johnson to solve it all for you. You’ve seen him right? Despite the lies he tells he has no clue either. May as well put a turnip or Nigel Farage in charge.

Lord Egbut Nobacon said...

Whats priceless about quotes out of context Veteran? Hers another one............ "When asked what the greatest thing about the EU was, he replied simply: "One word, peace. And when it comes to peace we have to do it together with the US."

Love him or loathe him he is exactly like Trump...he was elected...and you take the good with the bad, it's called democracy. His term is up in November so you will be able to lie about about someone else soon Chunter.

For years the MEP voting was such a low key affair in the UK that you could easily miss it......turn out at the last one was 37%. Now it's being hyped up as the second referendum and the death of the conservative party ....all bullshit of course.


No point in going over old ground with Brexit....it is either let Nth Ireland go into their own customs union and pull the customs and immigration back to fortress Britain or put the British army back into Ireland for the next fifty years.

There is one other facet that has not been discussed.."Le Torquet agreement"...this has nothing to do with the EU, it is just between France and the UK. It allows a big chunk of Calais to "belong" to the UK where customs and immigration operate on French soil, it acts as a buffer zone with unlimited parking which Dover or Folkstone does not have and as immigration trap.It is invaluable for allowing the smooth transit of the 10,000 lorries at Dover alone per day. Each takes about two minutes to complete formalities...now.

Now here is the problem....Madam Macron was born and brought up at Torquet and her family and friends are all from the Calais area. They are utterly sick of the kilometres of razor wire and continual police presence not to mention the refugees/asylum seekers drawn like a magnet to the port. She is giving hubby a bit of grief on this and all indications are is that he will can it if the UK pulls out of the EU.

Without checks in France all a bogus asylum seeker needs is a two hundred dollar car, four mates and valid passports..drive on, drive off in UK and claim asylum.

The French are preparing huge lorry parks about 30K from the coast and will probably let them through in small tranches.

If the UK attempts to leave without a trade deal it will be the ONLY country in the world trading on WTO rules.....run for the hills here come the lawyers.













Tom Hunter said...

jesus christ snowflake - it's obvious you're not trying to win people/voters over to your way of thinking.

Just call 'em Deplorables and be done with it. Convert that last statement into Chinese and imagine it coming from the mouth of Xi Jinping:

the number of those in favor of remaining with China is increasing because people are watching what is happening with Tibet and they are seeing that leaving the China is not as easy as they were told.

Juncker? Tusker?..... Shorten?

These are the people you want in charge? You're actually trying to mock the likes of Boris and the British Parliament and the rest when those creatures are your alternative?

Come one, fess up. You're on two bottles of good Scotch a day aren't you?

Snowflake said...

At least Juncker is using facts. Like Farage, English isn’t his first language, so he lacks the rhetorical flourishes and obscure classical references frequently employed by BJ to confirm he’s a wanker. Plus he feels constrained by a need to tell the truth.

Who’s Tusker btw? Sounds like an elephant surgeon.

Heroin is cheaper than Scotch, as I suspect you know.

Lord Egbut Nobacon said...

Still on the clever rhetoric beats facts eh Chunter........November elections to replace Juncker...who is your choice?

Quickly, google now..

Tom Hunter said...

November elections to replace Juncker...who is your choice?

My dear fellow, has it not occurred to you that I don't really give a fuck about who heads the EU Commission?

Snowflake said...

Yep, you’ll smear them regardless.

Tom Hunter said...

Plus he feels constrained by a need to tell the truth.
No one who drinks to that extent could ever be described as constrained.

But I should not be scathing of him. How many politicians are that honest.

Lord Egbut Nobacon said...

Thank you Chunter, I look forward to not hearing from you on the subject of the EU again... Stick to movie reviews.

Veteran......Given that everybody is now better informed on the pro's and con's of leaving and it has been nearly three years do you not think it should be put to the people as it affects the young more than the old and there are now 1.6 million new voters?......wrong about the binding part, the referendum was always touted as non binding.

The Veteran said...

Snowflake ... wby do you lie, does it come naturally? WTF did I say I had no idea what to do? I made it quite clear I had no great opinion on Brexit per se. That means what it means. I don't have to have an opinion. I don't live in the UK.

What I did in my post was to comment on how I saw things had developed post Brexit. Nothing more and nothing less. I understand how, as an arrogant socialist, you feel obliged to belittle any opinion that doesn't fit comfortably with yours. Goes with the territory I guess.

Egbut ... I didn't say the referendum was binding but it was certainly touted as binding. Voters were entitled to think Brexit meant Brexit. Clearly we agree to disagree. We also disagree on the rationale for a second referendum for the reasons I stated. Clearly you see it otherwise ... that's your privilege.

Lord Egbut Nobacon said...

Veteran....the voters also thought that it was easy peasy, just write a letter saying you quit and watch all the trade deals roll in. Why did they think that? Because they were told by the likes of BoJo, Gormless Gove and Niggle Fromage.

Snowflake said...

So, “Veteran”, you claim to have no opinion (coz you’re clueless, but whatever), and then immediately accuse me of belittling your opinion. No one could accuse tories of having the ability to use logic or be consistent and balanced I suppose, but that’s hilarious even for you. And why on earth would you post something about you having no opinion? The very definition of pointless.

The Veteran said...

Flake ... you're the clueless one. I don't have to have an opinion on Brexit per se but I certainly can have an opinion on what followed and that was what my post was all about. Now, I know you are hurting over what happened in Oz but take a deep breath and calm down ... actually I thought you might have endorsed my comments re the Tories but never-mind, I accept that rational debate is not your forte.

Egbut ... to an extent you're right. I agree that Jo public thought Brexit meant Brexit. But you can't be a little bit Brexit just like you can't be a little bit pregnant. When you're in you're in, when you're out you're out and neither the twain shall meet. But that doesn't mean the world stops in he same way our world here didn't stop when the UK pulled the plug on our butter and cheese exports per courtesy of the Luxembourg Agreement.

Lord Egbut Nobacon said...

Veteran......total NZ trade to EU was just over 8 billion Euros out of which 1.5 billion went to UK customers....do the sums as I'm not sure what your point is.

It is fantasy to think that NZ is just going to pick up where things left off...for one thing the EU has dragged the UK agriculture sector kicking and screaming into he 21st century and is now one of the most competitive in the world and light years ahead in animal welfare practises.....a free for all agricultural trade deal a la 1960 is not on the cards

The Veteran said...

Egbut ... my point simply was that while you may see Brexit as a challenge for UK farmers others will see it as an opportunity ... just as 'we' did post Luxembourg.

Maybe, just maybe, the farm that we have an interest in just outside Leominster won't have to dispose of 500 +/- eggs every day just because they come out undersized. BTW, dispose means smash, Bot allowed to give them away.