Sunday, May 5, 2019

BREXIT: Time to cut the cord on May and the EU - Part I

Enough. It's time for Britain to pull the plug on withdrawal agreements, honour the 2016 referendum result, and get the hell out of the EU with no deal.

But first the plug is going to have to be pulled on the Conservative PM, Theresa May. She is surely the worst Conservative British PM since Stanley Baldwin, and likely to exceed Tony Blair as the worst overall of the modern era if she manages to stick around much longer.

Setting aside conspiracy theories that as a secret Remainer she's simply throwing sand in the Brexit gears in the hope of wearing them down and staying in the EU, she should be given the boot for sheer incompetence across the board. Given my prior low opinion of her, because of her approaches to civil liberties when she was Home Secretary, none of her uselessness comes as a surprise.

It's not uncommon for political leaders, even bright ones, to become obsessive about a policy that everybody else can see is a loser: Thatcher and the poll tax, Bush and Iraq, LBJ and Vietnam, Merkel and mass refugees,  Key and the NZ flag, Adern and Kiwibuild.

And now we have May and her godforsaken Withdrawal Agreement, where obsession is the only explanation now that it's failed in Parliament three times, losing by huge margins. Even the third vote could only be held when the Speaker allowed minor modifications to it, allowing it to be a "different" bill. I doubt he's going to accommodate a fourth vote. May's latest wheeze is a new term called a "customs arrangement", which is such pitiful spin that she didn't even try and explain it herself but sent out spinners who might still be believed.

Rational option analysis won't work anymore. She's gone in the head.
It could be argued that it does not matter. Nobody - not the PM, not Cabinet, not the Tories, not Labour, not even the whole of Parliament - seem to be in charge. Parliament tried taking control and ended up voting down eight ideas, without even the pressure of them being real law; indicative votes only.

But that's simply a symptom of her shit leadership. 

The departure date was supposed to have been March 29. Then April 12. Now it's October 31st: Halloween - how appropriate. The Remainers assume that the passage of time will do the job for them, but it appears the opposite is happening. And all this extra time will gain May nothing, except the additional humiliation of the new Brexit Party killing the Conservatives in the EU elections on May 23-26. Another blind-side hit, rather like that of 2016. Farage is back.



And this was before the Conservatives got pasted in Local Council elections. That was expected because although we're talking about pothole maintenance and the local Tory folk have nothing to do with the nation's parliament, the anger and hatred against May and company was going to have an effect.

Did it ever: more than 1300 Tory Councillors booted. The worst such result since 1995! The ballot paper shown here being a classic example of the mood. There were many with worse language, but "traitors" was a common word.


The European Parliament elections will likely be worse. This whole episode is a repeat of her decision to call a general election in 2017. Strategic stupidity.

May has to be removed, otherwise the next few months will look like the last few. Pulling the plug on her will not be easy, as she's already survived a vote of confidence and cannot be challenged again until December of this year. However, in the world of the unwritten constitution all is malleable and there are already discussions happening about the Conservative's "1922 Committee" changing its old rules to allow an earlier challenge. Or she may just be bluntly told to quit or face having no Cabinet.

Once she's gone the new Conservative PM must execute a No-Deal Brexit. A year ago it could have been argued that it would cause damage, with companies and government departments scrambling to cope with instant changes. But the fact is that a lot of work has been done to obviate those problems and in any case, much of the fear-mongering by Remainers has proved to be wrong, but those are arguments for another piece.

15 comments:

Lord Egbut Nobacon said...

Here I go again for the umptytwidlyeth time. This time I will shout...

UNLESS THE UK GOVT IS PREPARED TO CUT THE TIES AND RELINQUISH WESTMINSTER'S CONTROL OF NORTHERN IRELAND THERE CAN BE NO WITHDRAWAL WITHOUT A TRADE DEAL.

OK ..Got that...everything else is just hot air, wishful thinking and political rhetoric without substance.

You cannot walk away and leave a 500k open border and if you don't understand that then stop posting porkies.

Lord Egbut Nobacon said...

Forgot to mention....the only two parties who stood on the remain ticket, LibDems and the Greens saw their vote soar at the expense of the two main parties who lost heavily......most thinking people have judged that as big swing to remain.

David said...

Chunter, you don't live in the UK, you don't live in Europe, so shut the fuck up. Why should anyone care what you have to say about a matter that does not affect you and that does not involve you?

I know, I know, since Veteran banned you from using SLG you can't write anything about NZ anymore.

How about writing about something cvloser to your heart - say about a UKIP Candiddate foe the Eurpean parlIAment wehio thought it was asmART to tell his female opponent shewaS TOO UGLY TO BE RAPED. aND WHEN CALLED ON THAT SAID, WELL ok, MAYBE SHE IS ugly but I could be convinced to rape her. He's one of yours, a deplorable.

Snowflake said...

What? This is your long promised analysis of what Britain should do to get out of the mess Cameron and Johnson created? Shakes head. I’m devastated. I was looking forward to something stunning in its logic and clarity, but instead...

This can be boiled down to “May is useless therefore fire her and simply walk out the door”. Where is the explanation of the consequences, both economic and social, and the steps that will need to be taken to mitigate the damage? The Irish border? Trade rules? Immigration consequences? Nothing as to why this is the better than the other options? Buddy, come on. You know you’re better than this.

pdm said...

Why don't you tell us how you would handle it Snowflake?

It would be a surprise to most of us if you came up with something intelligent and contstructive.

Go on - give us all a thrill.

Lord Egbut Nobacon said...

To be in a Customs union with the EU a country must sign up to the four pillars of the freedom of movement for people, services, goods and capital....that means no borders.

This is non negotiable and is something the British people and most of their representatives did not understand in 2016...they do now. As long as the commitment and pledge to the Irish governments by all parties stands firm the only way for the UK to leave the EU is to let Northern Ireland become independent or join the South.

Nancy Pelosi in her recent address to the Irish parliament told the UK that any trade deal with US depended on the Good Friday agreement remaining inviolate.....meaning don't fuck with the border or you are toast. An unsolvable conundrum that Chunter has tried to spin.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

"Nancy Pelosi told the UK....."

Is that the Nancy Pelosi who is not in power and never will be?

Tom Hunter said...

I've changed the title slightly to reflect the fact that this was originally one article.

I was torn between writing something that was too long for my fans - forcing them into single paragraph responses or back to the sock drawer - and keeping them in anticipation of what came next, for I know how excited they are about what I write. :)

Anonymous said...

Thanks for posting an interesting article, Tom.

Oddball

Anonymous said...

Egbut, have you ever considered what you write is considerably blinkered by your perspective? Some might even be rude enough to suggest ‘myopic’.

The UK doesn’t have to do anything with the Irish border other than to say they’re leaving the EU. If the EU is such a hot thing to get into, then to protect whatever it is they have, EU will do something about the border.

I would suggest Sthn Ireland won’t be too worried about border controls either as they benefit from the free flow of trade across the border.

Paranormal

David said...

Is that the Nancy Pelosi who is not in power and never will be?

No, that's the Nancy Pelosi who is Speaker of the House and second in line to The Presidency. Sort of like Prince William, but with a job.

Do try to keep up, old man.

Tom Hunter said...

... second in line to The Presidency..
Third actually. After the Vice-President.

... since Veteran banned you from using SLG you can't write anything about NZ anymore.
More examples of how you don't really read anything that's written here but just use it as your own personal kneejerk space. Let me draw your attention back to what I said in my first ever blog post here:

What I won't be commentating on is NZ politics (much). I've read almost no NZ media since the turn of the Millenium and am therefore often very unaware of what's happening here. There may be the occasional event that's big enough to notice and that pisses me off enough to comment, but basically NZ politics is parish pump stuff

Obviously I made exceptions for the Chch shooting and to laugh at Chris Trotter's despondence over Adern's uselessness, but even then I never used the tag "SLG" for Adern. Your tired old brain simply confused me with Gravedodger and others.

David said...

Not only are you incapable of writing sensibly, you can't count either.

1st in line - VP

2nd in line - House Speaker.

And you claim expertise on all things American! Yeah. Right!



Tom Hunter said...

Meh. Third in line behind the office of the President itself, 2nd in line of succession, behind the VP. You should have been more precise.

David said...

Dancing on a pin, Chunter. There is no need for a qualifier as the President is not in line. careful you don't prick yourself, you could become one.