Saturday, April 6, 2019

WTF is happening with Brexit this week

Produced by the helpful British Institute of Government. Political Science PhD's are being minted as this happens.


My take on it is that the 80% of the British Parliament never really wanted to leave the EU - and yes, I am ignoring their votes in Parliament to do so, which appear to have been simply the actions of wind socks. While doing that they've successfully fought a delaying action of adding complexities that has brought Britain to the brink of Brexiters shrugging their shoulders and giving up. The old defense-in-depth strategy may pull off a win.

Just to cap off this suspicion, Theresa May announced the other day that she wants to work with Jeremy Corbyn in getting her "deal" through so Britain can supposedly leave. Her deal being one where Britain remains tethered to the EU's rules and regulations but with no control or influence compared to even the pitiful amount it has now. This announcement came after seven hours of a Cabinet meeting, which means she could not get agreement from her own Ministers.

Jeremy Corbyn FFS! The closest thing to a Marxist Prime Minister that Britain has ever seen, and who means it, if his near Stalinist advisors are anything to go by. A man who has spent a lifetime making excuses for every group that ever wanted to stick it to the West (USSR, Russia, Iran), or Britain in particular (IRA). A man with strange ideas about Jews. A man who spent most of his Labour career voting against his own party, but who now demands loyalty from his Labour MP's, and in many cases is not getting it. A man who has been quite rightly attacked by May and the Conservatives as someone who cannot be trusted with the security of Britain.

It's nice that her little speech suggested that she's always thought that Britain could adjust to a No Deal departure. But in other speeches, mainly to the House, she's also suggested that a second referendum could be on the cards, after months of saying she would abide by the 2016 referendum result. All politicians learn the art of speaking with a forked tongue to negotiate a path that pulls together different groups. Corbyn himself is a long-time Euro skeptic who downplayed the idea of Remain during the most recent General Election, to the fury of many Labour MP's. In fact he made sure that Labour's official election platform was that the Brexit vote would be honoured, as did the Conservatives in their platform. Given the majority support for Brexit in Labour seats that's hardly a surprise.

But May's just not very good at the forked tongue stuff, which has to not be obvious in order to work.

Readers of my recent article on The Irish Problem, might also be interested in the following recent survey of British attitudes towards "Union" in the specific case of Northern Ireland.


March 29 has come and gone. April 12 now looks shaky. There is talk of an extension to May 22nd - or perhaps even longer. The EU may declare it's had a gutsful and refuse any further extensions, even if May feels she's got the backing to ask for them. Or the EU could continue to play the game of softly-softly-catchee-monkey to keep Britain in the EU, assuming it's willing to live with a dysfunctional nation. To that end, looking at other dysfunctional members of the EU - Italy and Greece as stand-out examples - perhaps the EU is happy to do so. More default power to Brussels.

What's actually happening to Britain is best summed up by this poster:


And judging from the feedback on the Guido Fawkes blog, May has made great progress down at least one pathway.

Burning the British Conservative Party to the ground.

UPDATE:
Sounds like things are not going well for May on her domestic outreach programme, according to Scottish National Party leader, Nicola Sturgeon:
This is similar to when I met PM on Wednesday. She wanted to know where we could compromise, but refused to indicate any compromise she might make. It is a bizarre approach from someone who made great play of wanting to find consensus - and has just wasted yet more time.
Or on the foreign outreach programme, according to the French Foreign Minister:
"It's time that this situation ended," he told reporters on the sidelines of a G7 meeting in Dinard, northern France. "We can't live constantly with Brexit. At some point, there needs to be a departure. The British authorities and the British parliament need to understand that the European Union is not going to be able to constantly exhaust itself with the ups and downs of domestic British politics." 
Last minute dirty deals are possible of course, but by Wednesday, April 10, May has to have an exit plan that has solid backing at home that she can present to the emergency meeting of EU Leaders as an argument for extending the time a bit further. There's nothing like that in sight.

So a No-Deal Exit on April 12 OR pulling the Article 50 notification? Given the failure of all the compromise options, it's hard to see anything beyond those two extremes.

76 comments:

David said...

Nice post Chunter.

Corbyn is a Marxist in your dreams because you never have coherent arguments, only labels for things you don't like.

And as usual with supporters of the US War Party your focus is always on "security", on building a bigger military, a grander surveillance state, not on that which is of benefit to the electorate.

And it isn't may burning the Cons to the ground, that fire was lit by Farrage, fanned by Johnson, and now the Brexiteers hold hands around it to prevent the arrival of the fire brigade.

David said...

Also worth noting, the original Guido (Guy) Fawkes plotted to destroy the Parliament buildings with its members sitting and usher in a Catholic Theocracy. No doubt that you would have lent him a hand given your record of disdain for democracy.

Tom Hunter said...

Corbyn is a Marxist in your dreams....
Corbyn's closest advisors:

Seumas Milne, Comms Director:
Milne has made a point of arguing that the number of Stalin’s victims has been greatly exaggerated. The South Ossetia conflict? Not the result of Russian aggression but U.S. interference. Russia’s invasion and annexation of Crimea? Not Moscow’s fault — it’s all down to Western expansionism.
Sounds like a mate of Andrei on this blog.
The Islamist extremists who killed British soldier Lee Rigby on the streets of London? Merely the “predicted consequence of an avalanche of violence unleashed by the U.S., Britain and others in eight direct military intervention in Arab and Muslim countries.” From Hugo Chavez to Bashar al-Assad and Vladimir Putin, every dictator and demagogue standing up to so-called U.S. imperialism is a de facto good guy.
Same as you then.

John McDonnell, Shadown Chancellor of the Exchequer: - wants five year plans. Re-nationalise five railways, Massive spendup "to help the poor", just like Hugo Chavez.

And his closest advisors are even worse: actual Communist Party member, Andrew Murray. Then there's Katy Clark. Anneliese Midgley. Andrew Fisher. All as Hard Left as you could want, their public thoughts muted only by fears of scaring off Labour voters with their nuttiness.

Just your type of people of course.


Speaking of coherent arguments, does your statement about my record of disdain for democracy, take into account my support of the result of the 2016 Brexit referendum, and does this mean that you also support it, given the implication that you're a big supporter of democracy?

Snowflake said...

So what would you do, wee man? Are you in the Rees-Moggy camp of let’s have a super hard Brexit and crash the economy so I can get richer? Is that the will of the people? All that money for the NHS!

David said...

So Seamus Milne is Jeremy Corbyn? WOW! Your arms must ache from all the bows you pull.

You Righties bang on about how governments need to be run like businesses. Businesses that commonly have five year plans. As a UK parliamentary term is 5 years, doesn't it make sense tom have a plan that encompasses the full term?

The 2016 referendum was not representative democracy in action, it was farce. There was nothing in the lead up to it to explain the consequences of a Leave Vote or how leaving would be achieved. I have no doubt you support it, not because you have a hand on heart love of democracy, but because it suited your political agenda and your anti-immigrant, anti-Europe thought bubbles.

Daylight saving Yes or No? An easy referendum question.

Allowing women to vote? Again easy.

Unraveling the world's largest trade deal, a Union that has led to the longest period of peace in European history, destroying London's pride of place as the world's financial capital, reducing the capacity of British industry to be industrial and industrious? Not something suited to a simple Yes or No.



Tom Hunter said...

So Seamus Milne is Jeremy Corbyn? WOW! Your arms must ache from all the bows you pull.

So Jeremy Corbyn is at odds with the Comms Director he selected, on those issues and others? Jesus that's a weak rebuttal when Corbyn has a history of saying much the same stuff! Pull the other, it's got bells on it.

So your spin on having government run more like business... is that businesses have five year plans? Alrighty then!

They might have five year goals, but after thirty years working in business I can't recall anybody seriously having a Five Year Plan in the manner meant by the old Soviets and McDonnell. And of course you've got to have a Ministry of Truth to delete the old plans when they fail so that the present fits the past plans, which could get expensive for a business.

That's just one more difference between the success of having a flexible "planning" approach of decentralised private sector actors and state central planning worshippers like McDonnell. I'd bet that in your own little business you'd think such an approach was nuts, but then everybody is conservative about what they know best.

So we can add Central Planning to the list explaining why Corbyn is a Marxist.

Tom Hunter said...

wee man

Awwww! Bring back "Wee Tommy".

Snowflake said...

So no ideas wee man? Come on, use that big brain you think you have and slay out your plan for us. Otherwise we will have to assume you’re clueless. You wouldn’t want that would you lil’ fella?

Psycho Milt said...

What's actually happening to Britain is best summed up by this poster

Oh, the right does love a dolchstosslegende...

It's also wrong - the Tory Party doesn't have 17 million MPs, let alone 17 million in the Euroskeptic faction responsible for this disastrous clusterfuck.

Tom Hunter said...

"lil' fella"
Ooooooo - such a sick burn.

Tom Hunter said...

@Psycho
The 17.5 million is referring to the number who voted for Brexit, they include both Labour and Conservative voters, and that knife is being held by both Labour and Conservative MP's.

Snowflake said...

You’re self-burning, and it’s highly amusing watching you flail about. So what’s your plan, shorty? (Your next comment; “oooo shorty, I’m cut!”). Now that’s out of the way, enlighten us all.

Kimbo said...

Bring back "Wee Tommy".

As I've bought the t shirt as an investment I should think so! πŸ€‘

Tom Hunter said...

@Snowflake
Given that you've never contrbuted to any debate here beyond endless, dull variations of the above taunts, I'm not wasting my time responding to you with anything but the same.

lil’ fella. :)

Snowflake said...

My contribution to the debate is to point out your lack of ideas and hypocrisy. I’m assisting you to think more broadly. It’s very easy to be a critic, but what would you do? Otherwise you’re not contributing to any debate beyond endless (and I do mean endless) dull variations of bland sarcasm. So let’s go, guy, here’s you chance.... If Tom was in charge of Brexit he would..... this is why....this would result in....

The Veteran said...

Tom ... excellent post. Can I suggest that Brexit (or not) will result in the refining of UK politics in a way that no-one could have imagined two years ago.

To quote a rather hackneyed phase .... we (British) live in interesting times.

Tom Hunter said...

Thanks Vet.

It really is a hell of a mess. What amazes me is that no one - not May, not Corbyn, anyone - really has any ideas as to what to do except just toss it all and return to the EU. And they're all afraid of doing that because of those 17.5 million voters that cross traditional party lines.

Tom Hunter said...

@Snowflake

Nah - in order to have a debate you have to put up ideas as to what should be done, with something more than soundbite reasons. What's more, there has to be a history to those efforts, to demonstrate your good faith. I often respond to the likes of David and Eggburt because they at least can be bothered to rise above simple-minded trolling and write more than a sentence, even as they attack along much the same lines that you do. Do that a few times and I'll respond with the same, perhaps in an article.

By contrast, even what you've just written is an effort that barely rises above your history here, and since that history points to nothing but the same old taunting & trolling you employ against every other writer here except Psycho, I don't think you'd bother doing anything more that, were I to engage.

You simply hate this blog, almost everybody on it, and regard us as such scum that we're worthy only of your minimal efforts of abuse, in which you glory by constantly getting deleted by the others. But I'll leave your wisdom up for all to see.

Snowflake said...

And there it is ladies and gentlemen. Tom has not a clue. Funnily enough though, in his admission of bewilderment, he has stumbled across the only sensible approach, and he described in in eight words. The voters were sold a bunch of lies by Farage and Johnson. They need to be re-engaged now that the monstrous dishonesty of the leavers has been exposed and asked to confirm if they want an agreement free departure from the EU or not. If they do, at least they’d be screwing themselves with their eyes wide open.

Tom Hunter said...

Speaking of referendums here's one: Ohio Senate Bill 5 Veto Referendum, Issue 2 (2011).

The bill itself was an effort to get control of public union pension and healthcare schemes before they start to destroy Ohio's public finances as they have in nearby Illinois, and to try to curb the power of public unions buying votes to preserve those schemes in aspic.

It was a simple Yes/No vote, even though there was a lot of complexity in the legislation and the arguments. But complexity was not provided by advertisements such as the one the SB5 opposition ran, which showed an elderly woman standing in a burning house with firefighters unable to respond because they were asked to pay a few extra bucks toward their healthcare costs. Shades of the Leave campaign's claim around NHS, no?

The Yes side got 61.33% of the vote, and the bill was repealed with nothing proposed to deal with the very real problems emerging in that area.

But I'd bet dollars to donuts that the same people complaining about the "simple-minded" Brexit referendum were perfectly okay with this one - not to mention the original 1975 British referendum to join the EU, which in hindsight contained a lot of claims about protection of British sovereignty that have turned out to be false. Amusingly this included the Trades Union Council (YUC):
TUC General-Secretary Len Murray said the boycott would be lifted but he remained adamantly opposed to the EEC. "Many of the most imprtant decisions about our future can only be taken here in Britain," he said.
Heh!

Snowflake said...

I’ll take irrelevant distractions for $1000 Alex.

Tom Hunter said...

See folks! Normal Snowflake transmission has resumed with bewilderment.

Oh - and monstrous dishonesty. KIMBOoooooooo.......!

In blogworld the validity of an argument is in inverse proportion to the excessive and unnecessary use of adverbs

And note also that "Snowflake" does exactly what he whinges about: positing a simple-minded solution of a second referendum with no further thought as to consequences or any detailed reasoning explained to readers here. It's just another pivot point of attack. The mirror image...

If Snowflake was in charge of Brexit he would..... this is why....this would result in....

As they say - So let’s go, guy, here’s you chance...

:)

Snowflake said...

And then there’s the hypocrisy. Tommy’s normal transmission = distraction + whataboutism. I’ve put forward what I think is the only rational way forward (“simple-minded” is a simple-minded slogan-like response btw) and why. You, however, have resorted to type (but here, I’ve found an obscure example of a referendum somewhere else and it was like baaad!). Now, go ahead, what’s your proposial? This is your platform, not mine after all.

Tom Hunter said...

By your own standards your response is not good enough. Remember....

he would..... this is why....this would result in....

Tom Hunter said...

Oh - and my reference to the Ohio referendum is a direct counter-point to David's claim above about referendums not being suitable for "complex" subjects like exiting the EU.

Daylight saving Yes or No? An easy referendum question.

Allowing women to vote? Again easy.

Unraveling the world's largest trade deal, a Union that has led to the longest period of peace in European history, destroying London's pride of place as the world's financial capital, reducing the capacity of British industry to be industrial and industrious?

Not something suited to a simple Yes or No.


Clearly the Ohio referendum folks did not agree, and niether did the 3.5 million who voted on it.

The Veteran said...

and further ... to demonstrate just how volatile UK politics is at the moment you have to look no further than the Newport West by-election held on Thursday. Labour retained the seat with a greatly reduced majority (down from 5,658 to now 1,951) which saw a swing from Labour to the Conservatives of 2.4%.

Seems the nice Mr Corbyn has even less going for him than St Theresa May.

Meanwhile it is reported that the request for an extension of the deadline for Brexit (ready or not) to 30 June has gone down in the EU like a cup of warm sick.

Kimbo said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Kimbo said...

Jeremy Corbyn FFS! The closest thing to a Marxist Prime Minister that Britain has ever seen, and who means it, if his near Stalinist advisors are anything to go by.

Hmm. By post-Thatcher standards, and if elected, then Corbyn would inherit the title previously held by the epitome of the British Attlee Labour government post-war "consensus politics",...Harold Macmillan. 😁

You gotta wonder about the stupidity of Cameron who got them into this mess, who doesn't seem to have considered the possibility, in a straight binary yes/no referendum, that the British electorate would decide contrary to what the elites on both sides of the parliamentary divide want. What's the old piece of advice for lawyers when engaging in cross-examination? Never ask the witness a question to which you do not already know the answer...

The Veteran said...

and further again still ... I see the UK government has started issuing new passports with the words 'European Union' removed from the top of the cover page.

A straw perhaps ....

Tom Hunter said...

@Kimbo
... and if elected, then Corbyn would inherit the title...
Regarding Corbyn, I've no doubt that were he to become Prme Minister, he would fail in getting most of his dreams implemented. The resistance inside Labour would be huge, even if the previous election has quieted his internal oppositon at the moment. And that's before he ran into all sorts of fiscal problems.

But that does not change who he is and what he believes, as demonstrated by three decades as an activist politician who pushed every hard-line Left position in every sphere of government, falling short only of 100% ownership of the means of production because even he realises that's pushing shit uphill nowadays.

You gotta wonder about the stupidity of Cameron .... Never ask the witness a question to which you do not already know the answer..
Sure. But as May and most of the Parliament are demonstrating, he's not alone. His failure to run through that basic lawyer's thought process is an example of his arrogance and that of the entire Remain group. Like Trump's election it was regarded as impossible, as pointed out in Borders and Backstops:

While Cameron refused to allow officials to prepare for a Leave vote — barring officials from putting anything on paper — Ireland had produced a 130-page Contingency Plan with an hour-by-hour checklist.

And now we're seeing that this arrogance, incompetence, and hubris is spread a lot wider than Cameron or the Conservatives.

David said...

Oh - and my reference to the Ohio referendum is a direct counter-point to David's claim above about referendums not being suitable for "complex" subjects like exiting the EU.

Chunter, some people say you're as dumb as a sack of hammers.

The is no correlation between the two referenda. In Ohio, the voters knew what was contained in the Bill, therefore they knew exactly what they were voting to keep or drop. The UK leavers didn't even put before the electorate some guidelines, let alone properly thought out Legislation. They were a bunch of clowns who have turned the UK in to a circus.

Tom Hunter said...

And WRT to The Vet's comment on new British passports I noted this from a Tory Minister's resignation letter written in the wake of May's appeal to Corbyn:

In my current job, I've had the responsibility of helping to coordinate our preparations for if we were to leave the European Union without a negotiated deal. As I believe you know, these preparations are well advanced and whilst I would have preferred to leave the European Union with your deal, I truly believe our country would have swiftly overcome any immediate issues of leaving without a deal and gone on to thrive


Tom Hunter said...

@ David

In Ohio, the voters knew what was contained in the Bill, therefore they knew exactly what they were voting to keep or drop

Oh Dogs Bollocks. How many voters ever read any legislation in detail? Only those who have to make the arguments or who are directly affected. That's long been one of the core arguments for representative democracy vs. "pure" democracy.

For most voters., all they knew were the public "arguments" put forward in the form of TV advertising. They knew that grannies would die in housefires because the fireman were too poor to attend them.

That flaw also lies at the heart of the Brexit/Remain vote, but naturally you have to make excuses for the former while condemning the latter because the Ohio win is something you undoubtedly support.

David said...

How many voters ever read any legislation in detail?

The ones who like to be informed. Once again, your disdain for democracy shines through every gilded turd you polish.

...because the Ohio win is something you undoubtedly support.

Sorry, Chunter, I think American decisions are best left to Americans I don't have a dog in their fights.

Some people say you're as thick as two short planks, but I couldn't possibly comment.



Tom Hunter said...

I think American decisions are best left to Americans I don't have a dog in their fights.

Oh? So you think British decisions are best left to the British then - but only the ones who are informed?

Whereas a true friend of democracy like myself thinks that the uninformed should also be allowed to participate, which is why you're still allowed to comment here.

The Veteran said...

David ... you might disagree with one of my fellow commentators posts but you're pushing the boundaries with your 'thick as two short planks' comment. His opinion is just a valid as yours and when you descend to that line of argument you are diminishing your own standing ... but perhaps that doesn't worry you.

Tom Hunter said...

@Vet

Don't worry about it. It's standard practice for David to start the abuse and a flame war when has no argument. I rather appreciate it and I like our silent readers to judge for themselves rather than deleting his comments.

Snowflake said...

Still haven’t heard Tommy’s plan. He must have one, as he’s very critical of what’s been punted up so far. I can’t wait.

He does have a good point though about the absolute stupidity of having a referendum on this in the first place. Thanks Tories! That, of course, doesn’t mean that a do-over now that it’s become clear that leavers are liars isn’t the best of a collection of appalling options. An up and down hard Brexit versus sanity, and problem solved (or worst case scenario consensual bedlam).

David said...

Chunter, why is it that every discussion turns into an irrelevancey from the USA?

Surely even you can spot the difference between the two referenda.

Maybe not.

David said...

Vet, Chunter is a Trumpeteer. I am mimicking using Trump's standard opening ploy.

Tom Hunter said...

Ah - we're back to "Tommy".

He does have a good point though about the absolute stupidity of having a referendum on this in the first place.

You see, this is why nobody bothers really interacting with you. You deliberately misread what is said anyway and then insert your own words, always with the aim of crafting your "argument" as an exercise in abuse and denigration. Which is also why your posts are so short and pointless.

I did not say the referendum was stupid. I said that all referendums have the same, basic flaw, which is the voters understanding what the Yes/No questions really involve. The stupidity was that Cameron did not prepare for Leave to win. But the greater stupidity was that all the other Remainers, Tory, Labour and LibDem alike, took it for granted and made few and weak arguments for their side.

Now that's really stupid, particularly with so much at stake. And naturally that would have included you had you been there. Your idea of debate would undoubtedly have been the same as it is here; lots of abuse of all those deplorables who dont' agree with you. You'd have been a real asset to the Leave vote.

An up and down hard Brexit versus sanity, and problem solved (or worst case scenario consensual bedlam).

Thats it? That's the best you can produce after the huge exertions of your intellectual resources?

I'm afraid that you're going to have add a lot more meat to that before I bother giving my opinion here as to the best option. In fact here are the guidelines - again - courtesy of none other than your good self.

... this is why....this would result in....

Two or three hundred words at least, exploring the "why" and the possible results and your assessment of their likelihood and...

... you know I should not have to tell you how to write a decent, thoughtful comment that doesn't involve endless abuse of the intellectual and moral limitations of your hosts? You can't possibly be as intellectually constipated as that.

I can’t wait.
Well that's obvious from your repeated, foot-stamping demands. Luckily I can, until I get around to writing an article about it.

Snowflake said...

In condemning what you see as denigration and abuse you sure do resort to a lot of denigration and abuse, Tom-Tom.

You did imply that referenda on complex questions were stupid, in fact you reiterated that they’re dumb in the sentence immediately after you denied doing it. You even dug out an obscure example from Ohio to try and prove your case. You make a good point, own it. And yes, the current situation is Cameron’s fault (right again), but he was given a lot of assistance from the far right and the Tory clowns and liars like Bojo and Rees-Mogg. I suspect this is why you can’t put forward a coherent view on this. You know the truth, but can’t bring yourself to articulate it, as you would be betraying your tribe in so doing. You’re exactly the same with Trump. It must be humiliating for you.

I have expressed my view on Brexit and the way out and the reasons for it. It’s not my fault if I have a talent for succinctness. That must drive you crazy, brevity being the soul of wit, and something you sorely lack. Believe it or not, I would like to hear what you think is the best course of action here, and am surprised you won’t put up. Sure it’ll have the torch applied to it, but hey, think of it as a teachable moment.

Kimbo said...

Hmm. That's actually a good post by Snowflake - considered, sufficiently detailed yet also achieving the stated goal of being...succinct.

Hey, Tom-Tom, can I suggest that, in the same way 6 year old boys with a crush on a girl in school express that by...picking on her and calling her names, Snowflake, contrary to overt expression, in fact likes you. 😍😍😍

Now, on the assumption neither of you consenting adults is up to booking a room, that is the end of my matchmaking skills, and I refuse to pass notes in class between the two of you. πŸ˜’

Snowflake said...

Oh go on, can you just ask him if he likes me...

Lord Egbut Nobacon said...

Chunter....like your previous "Irish" post you miss the point altogether and chatter on about inconsequential happenings.

Not sure how to say this in words that you and Veteran will understand as I have said it before. I won't shout although I feel like it.....all lower case.

Unless Nth Ireland stays in the customs union with the EU but remains governed by the United Kingdom there will be no Brexit.

In neither of your posts have you mentioned that the Stormont Gvt has ceased to exist and direct rule from Westminster will be imposed which is colouring the attitude of all the Irish somewhat.

If Nth Ireland becomes separated in trade from the UK Scotland will kick off and certainly vote to leave the union as in both countries the remain vote won by a large margin.

Leaving the EU would not end the story: The agonizing process of rewriting hundreds of treaties would then begin anew, from a much worse place. Britain would face the same hurdles and the same requirements from Europe as it does now, while facing high tariffs and trade barriers of a kind nobody even remembers. Britain will also have lost its credibility as a negotiator and, indeed, as a serious country.

I have just read the proposed "free" trade deal the US has proposed with the UK and I find it quite frightening with the UK having to regulate itself to US human and animal welfare practises.

Chunter chunters a lot but rarely covers the salient points.

Corbyn a marxist?.....People have a habit of adapting particularly when they attain power. Look at PM Ardern the "committed socialist" or as this blog would have it "Commie" and as I mentioned before the nationalisation of the railways is wildly popular as, like the prison service, privatisation has been an unmitigated disaster.




Lord Egbut Nobacon said...

I forgot to mention the passport. A little while ago the Europhobes from UKIP started a petition to have all French words removed from the British passport.

The thickos thought the royal motto emblazened across the front must have been latin
....Dieu et mon droit.

Travel document does not have the same ring as passport...which is French.

Lord Egbut Nobacon said...

Veteran....re Newport bye election......voter turn out down 50% from general election. Had the 68% turned out the result would have been about the same as the GE result.

Lord Egbut Nobacon said...

If you wonder at the referendum result just look at the effect of fake news from the right wing press over 20 years....

All dated .....THIS IS A MUST READ https://blogs.ec.europa.eu/ECintheUK/euromyths-a-z-index/

The Veteran said...

Egbut ... re Newport West. But it wasn't and I read a number of commentaries from 'left' leaning sources that had it that the Conservatives were in line to be humiliated ... quite the opposite happened.

Andrei said...

"All dated .....THIS IS A MUST READ https://blogs.ec.europa.eu/ECintheUK/euromyths-a-z-index/"

Mon Dieu you must lead a very dreary life Egbut - That post in your comment above - strawmen galore from the EU itself by the look of it

So some sad little grey person toiling their life away a grim Brutalist office block produced that shit and you actually read it and expect us to do so too.

Sad, sad, sad

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Poor Legbut. If his team had only kicked three more goals they would have won the match.

Lord Egbut Nobacon said...

Andrie......you are expected to say that...no change there then. But if you want to debate just pick one that you think is wrong.

Veteran......reason for low turn out, Cold squally showers and hail coming off the Irish sea.....says it all really.

This is the sort of shit that the British public has been subject to for 30 years and there never has been a campaign to reject the the almost weekly accusations.

https://blogs.ec.europa.eu/ECintheUK/driven-crazy-by-barmy-bus-driver-brussels-ruling/

Anonymous said...

Instead of of asking 1000 Brits of whom none will have been to Ireland why not ask the people of Ulster.

https://www.thejournal.ie/united-ireland-poll-4-4464297-Jan2019/

Andrei said...

Anon above - your survey was conducted among the people of the Republic of Ireland not Ulster

Egbut - most normal people are not particularly interested EC hygiene laws for abottoirs to pick the first item in that litany of common misconceptions of the EU according to the EU.

Let me explain something to you - Human beings are social animals who bond together to work co-operatively toward acheiving certain goals

And they bond outwards - starting with family, friends, local community, Nation. And the glue people bond around is shared culture and heritage. Abottoir hygene regulations a community do not make. A successful rugby team with a colourful name such as the Canterbury Crusaders is something that can bring the people of Canterbury together, something they can rally around.

"Progressives" seem to be hell bent on destroying everything of colour in this world and reducing everything to a drab dreary grey where we spend our time reading Abottoir hygene regulations and are not to be permitted to cheer the pagentry of the Canterbury Crusaders knights on horseback galloping around the field which provides a brief break from the mundane realities of everyday life.

Why can't Englishmen be proud to be English, Irish be proud to be Irish and Russians proud to be Russian? Why is it considered sinister that a Frenchman or an Austrian take joy in that heritage (both of which have been in the news in recent days)?

Well we know why - the grey little men of Brussels, their fellow travellors and our masters want to reduce humanity to be mere worker ants, placid and compliant and so they seek to fragment native communities and airbrush away their history, culture and heritage

Lord Egbut Nobacon said...

Andrei....you read but you do not understand because you do not want to understand. You are not talking to me you are talking to others hoping that your twisted logic will strike a chord.

The EU is 28 countries who signed up to trading block and work closely to align regulations and promote peace, freedom and security without borders.

https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/eu-in-brief_en

Sovereignty and national pride are alive and well in all of the 28 and the Russian troll factories attempt to paint them as living in the Fourth Reich is failing

The only country that will benefit from Brexit will be Russia.

Why can't the Eastern Ukrainians be proud to be Ukrainians....oh that's right, they were invaded by Russians and are kept from any political discourse

I'm tired of you running interference for Chunter....My posts are not directed at you so I would be obliged if you spoke when spoken to.

The Veteran said...

Egbut ... I can understand you wish to whitewash the Newport West result but you need to do a lot better than to blame the weather. Bad weather effects all parties. The days are long gone when only the rich (Tories) had cars.

Cut to the case. 95% of by-elections and you see a swing against the government party ... more so when its a two term government. You add into the mix the complete disarray of the Tories with Ministers resigning right, left and centre and May going cap in hand to Corbyn to try and cobble some sort of deal and all the ingredients were there for the Conservatives to get a shellacking ... but thy didn't. Labour vote was down 12.7% on the 2017 result with a swing to the Tories of 2.4%.

What I would take out of that is that (1) UK politics is in a state of flux and (2) Corbyn is in about as much trouble as May is.

David said...

Why can't Englishmen be proud to be English, Irish be proud to be Irish and Russians proud to be Russian?

What is there to be proud about an accident of birth? Tolstoy, Tchaikovsky, Chekhov were all Russian, but what part did you play in creating their works? Do you celebrate Lenin, Trotsky, Khrushchev? Do you have photos of them on your walls?

Instead of being a proud Russian and leaning on those who went before you, why not simply try to be a good human and leave the world a better place?

Nationalism leads to Jingoism leads to American and Russian interference in the affairs of other nations.

Tom Hunter said...

Nationalism leads to Jingoism leads to.....

Exactly. That's the EU's driving belief, articulated here by an aged 60's survivor.

Imagine there's no countries
It isn't hard to do
Nothing to kill or die for
And no religion, too
Imagine all the people
Living life in peace...

Tom Hunter said...

@Kimbo
Hmm. That's actually a good post by Snowflake ...

In over two hundred words he managed to whinge about my points on referenda, take the usual shots he does (coherence, truth, lies, clowns, Far Right, Trump,), and then simply say the he'd already expressed his view and given his reasons, when he's actually given precisely none:
An up and down hard Brexit versus sanity, and problem solved (or worst case scenario consensual bedlam).

Bumpty boo! You pull your boots on and away you go: Snowflake's guide to thinking.

He could have used all that space to articulate those reasons, but I'm not surprised he didn't.

But he did invent yet another variation on my name: "Tom Tom", so there is that. Remember, he's a wit. He told us so.

Tom Hunter said...

Snowflake said...
In condemning what you see as denigration and abuse you sure do resort to a lot of denigration and abuse, Tom-Tom.
Boom-tish!
I occasionally respond in kind, and since you've exhibited little or nothing but denigration and abuse to most of the authors on this blog you're in no position to complain about getting it back. We could even regard it as fun if you were less aggressive and had any sense of humour about yourself.

You did imply that referenda on complex questions were stupid... You make a good point, own it
I implied nothing of the sort. I said that most voters in referendums don't read detailed legislation, which seems an obvious point. I dug out the specific case of the Ohio referendum for David because I knew he'd kneejerk his way into it and he did. As soon as he saw it was a decision he supported - public union power - he couldn't wait to claim that the voters were informed, whereas in Brexit he, like you, assumes they were not because he does not support their decision.

But those specific examples do not make the use of referenda in principle to answer "complex" questions "stupid". It is simply a matter of doing the best to make sure the voters are as informed as possible. I don't think the Ohio voters were informed about their issue, and you don't think the Brexit voters were informed about theirs. Both opinions are debatable, but referenda voters can be well informed; Switzerland seems to function very well with them.

And it must be something you also believe when you go on to say that you support a second referendum on Brexit. That implies that you supported the mid-70's EU referendum in Britain and the various Yes/No votes over the years in European nations on the EU Constitution, even though you must know that few voters read that gigantic tomb.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Snowflake once again exhibits all the intelligence of the detritus from a haemorrhoids operation.

David said...

Chunter, time to call you out on another of your lies.

I dug out the specific case of the Ohio referendum for David because I knew he'd kneejerk his way into it and he did. As soon as he saw it was a decision he supported - public union power - he couldn't wait to claim that the voters were informed, whereas in Brexit he, like you, assumes they were not because he does not support their decision.

The difference is that in Ohio, the legislation was there for all to see. If some voters, most likely in your basket of deplorables, chose not to inform themselves, then that is not my problem. That is the creation of Murdoch's tittytainment. In the UK Brexit referendum there was NO legislation to peruse.

The best way for the UK to resolve this issue is at a General Election where each party can lay out their legislation and let the people decide. But that wouldn't suit someone as opposed to democracy as you seem to be.

Of course, there are some very fine people who oppose democracy.

Tom Hunter said...

... Tory clowns and liars like Bojo and Rees-Mogg. I suspect this is why you can’t put forward a coherent view on this. You know the truth, but can’t bring yourself to articulate it, as you would be betraying your tribe in so doing.

See! More Snowflake standard abuse and denigration - and no sense of irony either.

Your one sentence demand for a second referendum, with no reasons articulated about the pros and cons of such an action, is as "coherent" as a single wooden plank. Given that "your tribe" of UK Labour is split on Brexit, with 37% of Labour voters supporting Leave in 2016, that does not surprise me, given that it would require thoughtful explorations of the issue that might involve criticising the British and European Left as well, and you can't do that on a largely Right-wing blog.

It’s not my fault if I have a talent for succinctness. That must drive you crazy, brevity being the soul of wit
Thoughtfulness is what's required here, not wit. And while brevity and succinctness can be appreciated in thinking, your single sentence exposition of what should be done is not sophisticated enough to rise to either. What you actually have is a talent for being short, blunt, agressive and abusive, which are not uncommon traits.

Believe it or not, I would like to hear what you think is the best course of action here,.
I don't believe it for a moment, otherwise you would have engaged at length specifically with this article or others I've written. Instead you just started with the same short, sharp denigration and sarcasm that you always employ. Pulling even this much out of you in later comments has been like pulling your teeth out.

Sure it’ll have the torch applied to it, but hey, think of it as a teachable moment.
Chuckle. Yes, the Giant Intellect of Snowflake The Teacher shall be applied. The earth shall tremble.

Snowflake said...

Yawn. Thanks for your contribution Adolt, now go back to trawling the internet for tired right-wing memes. It’s easier for you than trying to think.

Now, Tommo, you are correct, it is almost tautological that referenda are useful where you are dealing with a straightforward issue and a well informed electorate. Not so where the issue is complex and subject to uncertainty. Again you yourself said this directly. Own in FFS. Brexit is remarkably complex and therefore the referendum campaign was typified by lies (mostly by Farage and Johnson). Now that those lies have been exposed, it is in fact broadly correct to say the electorate is now more informed than it was and is in a position to re-evaluate and potentially confirm its decision. However, this should be put as a straight choice of a no-deal departure or not. Clear and as simple as you can make it.

Now, what would you do?

Tom Hunter said...

if some voters, most likely in your basket of deplorables, chose not to inform themselves,...
So if the voters in my basket of Ohio deplorables had informed themselves, the vote might have have been 90:10 "Yes" instead of 61:39?

Fascinating. The people who are fully informed are the ones that David agrees with, and the voters he does not agree with are not fully informed. And it could not be possible the reverse to be the case.

You don't actually realise how nakedly partisan, one-eyed and stupid that is, do you? Informal fallacy. Circular reasoning. Petitio principii. You can look them up..

... there was NO legislation to peruse
Certainly it's true that the Leave side had no legislation to put forward. But there was the mountains of legislation written over the years to comply with the EU, representing the Remain side. And while people may not have "perused" it, they certainly had to comply with it, which is why they rejected having more of it.

The best way for the UK to resolve this issue is at a General Election where each party can lay out their legislation and let the people decide. But that wouldn't suit someone as opposed to democracy as you seem to be.
Yawn. Perhaps I might rise to that last bait if it could be a little sharper.

Meantime I will draw your declining memory to the 2017 UK General Election. Yes, less than two years ago for the usual five-year term, the British held a full-scale GE. Moreover, both Labour and the Conservatives had manifestos where they pledged to respect the result of the 2016 referendum.

Of course in good EU fashion, you obviously want the vote, be it a General Election or a Brexit referendum, to be taken again and again and again until you get the result you want. I don't think you fully understand what democracy is, but then that's likely tied in with you not understanding how it is that people disagree with you.

Tom Hunter said...

Tommo

Clap,.... clap, .... clap.....

Now, what would you do?

You'll have to wait for my next article here.

Even though I know you can't wait. :)

Snowflake said...

Ooooooo, your next article! Exciting!! Can you please have William Barr summarise it though? There’s only so much time in the day.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

My earlier comment was wrong and I owe Snowflake an apology. It was liposuction, not haemorrhoids.

Psycho Milt said...

She wanted to know where we could compromise, but refused to indicate any compromise she might make.

That matches Labour's description of May's approach to reaching a "consensus" on the issue.

So a No-Deal Exit on April 12 OR pulling the Article 50 notification? Given the failure of all the compromise options, it's hard to see anything beyond those two extremes.

Sounds like it's time for a second referendum: tick option 1, no-deal Brexit, or option 2, revoke Article 50 notification. Make it a binding referendum and the EU would most likely accept it as a basis for extending the process until the referendum and resulting government action was complete.

Lord Egbut Nobacon said...

Chunter manages to fill this blog with pages of prose without answering the hard questions so I wonder if he may step outside to play.

The referendum result as we have had drummed into us is the "will of the people" and shouldn't be over turned. However a general election is the "will of the people" for only four/five years, even then usually more people vote against the govt. in a FPP system.

Given that Scotland and Nth Ireland voted to remain in the EU should not the "will of the people" be taken into consideration?

Should another referendum be held as the British public are much more informed over the "dirty tricks" that were used ie. the leave campaigns undeclared overspending, the leave campaigners undeclared Russian links, the relentless social media campaign against immigrants and Muslims in particular even during and after Jo Cox MP was murdered on this very issue?

It has just been revealed that Sir Lynton Crosby the Tories Australian spin doctor has been running six different social media accounts using private data bombarding voters in key areas to lobby their MPs to vote leave.

I have pointed out the huge difference in the Scottish independence referendum and the shambles that passed for the EU referendum....David touched on the the same with the Ohio effort.

Chunter's articles are made up of speculation spin and very few facts and that that he should write so much and say so little speaks volumes....you cannot ignore the collapse of the Stormont govt and the IRA recruitment drive, which is not taking much driving, in discussing the subject..

The IRA was the most effective guerilla army the world has ever seen so do not underestimate what they are capable of or what they will do.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Provisional_Irish_Republican_Army

There were three large cargo ships from Libya that delivered arms including SAM's Rpg7s, medium machine guns, AK47s and Semtex during the 80's. The last cargo was intercepted but most of the remaining two cargos remain unaccounted for.

Tom Hunter said...

Good heavens. It's old Eggbutt chuffing up the incline - and still not reading anything I see...

Eggbutt comment - In neither of your posts have you mentioned that the Stormont Gvt has ceased to exist

Au Contraire, from The Irish Problem:
Fifth, the NI government effectively collapsed several years ago, was basically dysfunctional before that and...Nothing. I made the point that the collapse of the 'government" of Northern Ireland was hardly noticed. Life has carried on without them. The only place the DUP carries any weight is in London.

Eggbutt - Corbyn a marxist?.....People have a habit of adapting particularly when they attain power

What I said in a comment on this very thread:
Regarding Corbyn, I've no doubt that were he to become Prme Minister, he would fail in getting most of his dreams implemented. The resistance inside Labour would be huge....

If Nth Ireland becomes separated in trade from the UK Scotland will kick off and certainly vote to leave the union as in both countries the remain vote won by a large margin.
Even more reason for Brexit then. And excellent byproduct since both are bloody millstones around England's neck.

As for the IRA tooling up, I would think it would be the Unionists, who surely must see all this as growing gale pushing them towards unification with the Republic of Ireland. Why woud the IRA waste their time fighting for something now that is going to happen anyway? Fifty years ago they felt they had to fight to get unification: now it's going to happen without them lifting a finger.

Anyway, that's enough stepping outside to play from me. You can toddle back indoors and continue to get beaten up by your old CO over that byelection where the Tories increased their vote. Love your work!

Lord Egbut Nobacon said...

I think I can reply without sinking so low as to ridicule you. I deal in facts wherever possible and not speculations.

The Stormont Govt which is power sharing between the DUP and Sinn Fein was working well until a breakdown two years ago....it was an effective power sharing arrangement up until that point. It was not dysfunctional and it was not "several years" ago.

Elections were held on 2 March 2017.

The DUP and Sinn Fein came out on top as the two largest parties in Northern Ireland, which meant they had to reach an agreement to form a new government. That has yet to happen - almost a year and a half later.

The two parties disagree on numerous issues - for example, same-sex couples marrying, investigations into killings during the Troubles and a law to give official status to the Irish language.

Direct rule from Westminster is the next step unless the resolve the impasse.

By comparison to the IRA the Loyalist "paramilitary" were a bunch of thugs and local warlords running protection rackets and are not seen to pose a threat.

What the world does not need now are more countries....a break up of the Union would be catastrophic for Britain reducing it to three or four squabbling principalities on a small island off the European mainland.

Once again the only beneficiary would be Russia as witnessed by the huge effort they have made to interfere.

Parliament has voted a "no deal" Brexit off the table. The 12 DUPs who are the only thing between the Government and an election have refused to vote for May's deal because of the backstop and refuse to let Nth Ireland have it's own customs union with the EU.

Now for speculation.....the only thing left is cancelling the Article 50 letter which can be done at the last minute unless May takes a one year extension and the promise to have an election to remove the impasse. France will vote for that.

Oh and it's OC not CO.

What makes you such a spiteful person I wonder.






Tom Hunter said...

I think I can reply without sinking so low as to ridicule you

Oh? So you're going to stop using the play on my name - "Chunter"?

Please don't. I find the childishness of it amusing.

What makes you such a spiteful person I wonder.
This from the person who fervently wished for hate speech laws under which the Police could be sent after Gravedodger and Adolf, and likely this entire blog.

I agree that the Unionist forces were thugs and local warlords, but I think that the Provisional IRA was little different. But these are the opinions of you and me, not facts.

What the world does not need now are more countries....a break up of the Union would be catastrophic for Britain reducing it to three or four squabbling principalities on a small island off the European mainland.

Once again the only beneficiary would be Russia...


Those are not facts but speculation. There has been a vast increase in the number of nations in the UN since 1945. There is no evidence that this has led to more wars and more deaths from war. In many cases the UN and others have encouraged breakups in order to broker stable peace. And of the EU itself has the example of the Velvet Divorce of Czechoslovakia.

Northern Ireland and Scotland represent nothing to the English now except some more nostalgia for lost empires, fraying threads of traditional religions that are dying, welfare expenditures, and in the case of NI, potential blood loss. England would be well rid both. The EU can have them.

I have also pointed out that the EU will remain a fairly solid group of 27 nations. I don't think the Russians will gain anything, despite their efforts at dezinformatsiya, which is a fact, but not as vital as Remainers like to claim.

Oh and it's OC not CO.
Thanks. Good to know.

Lord Egbut Nobacon said...

Chunter.....affectionate nickname based on northern English slang ..to Chunter or chuntering on meaning inconsequential chatter. Herefordshire it is squitter.

Hate speech was a part of the mix that led to CHC. So I stand by my comments that in this new world of social media there has to be regulation. Russian accounts were found to be behind the riots in Barcelona, Gilet Jaune in France, the DoS attack in Estonia, civil unrest in Ukraine, Brexit, Black lives matter, US gun law, Muslim Vs non Muslim Italian election and Trumps election.

Russia is trying to destabilise not to push their point of view but by setting people against each other and making us distrust our systems and government. The "influencer" on your side using inflammatory rhetoric is just as much a troll as the the one opposing his views.

If you think that containing 55 million people behind new borders in a small land mass will not end in tears then you are deluded.

Scotland a drag on England........Yeah right. https://fullfact.org/economy/scotland-economy/

Tom Hunter said...

affectionate nickname based on northern English slang

Fair enough. I must admit I'm partial to the expression "chuntering along".

I think you're over-estimating the Russian thing. I've no doubt they try it on, dezinformatsiya being standard tatic for them for decdes at least. And while you are correct to think that unlike the Cold War days, they're not pushing their POV but simply setting both sides against eachother in many parts of Europe and in the US, the fact is that they can't create something from nothing. A lot of those problems stem from within those societies and I would argue that they're primary drivers. The Russian input is shit-stirring at the margins.

As the prime example, consider ex-British agent Christopher Steele's Russian "sources", which fed his infamous dossier and everything that has flowed from it. Who were those sources? "Ex" KGB/FSB? But it could never have worked as well as it did had it not been for the unhinged hatred of Trump by the US Left and the Democrats. They so badly wanted to believe it all - and yet that same belief prevents them from thinking about whether they were played to disrupt the US political system. That just can't be.

Putin must be laughing his ass off.

Lord Egbut Nobacon said...

"Unhinged hatred".....not sure where you got that from. How about dislike bordering on contempt. Lots of reasons but we wont go there. Like Brexit is is the on and on song.