Wednesday, August 1, 2018

THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

Stats NZ have reported that unemployment rose in the last quarter to 4.5% reversing five quarters of falls (with three out of the five dating from when National was in power).

Just how can that be under a Labour/NZ First government?

Hint ... the removal of sanctions requiring beneficiaries to actively seek work work might have something to do with it.

It is reported today a major construction firm has gone into receivership.    Expect more of this in line with the latest ANZ Business Confidence Survey showing business confidence at a low not seen since the GFC. 

Labour/NZ First ain't working (pun intended).  Expect the unemployment rate to rise.


19 comments:

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

The country will be if recession before you can say 'Grant Robertson.' It will be the one outstanding achievement by the COL rabble. Surplus to recession in eight point two seconds.

Do you know where I can find quarterly progress reports on private sector GDP?

You know, that private sector Helen Clark and Co secretly sent into recession while propping up the GDP figures with excessive gummint employment.

David said...

It is reported today a major construction firm has gone into receivership. Expect more of this in line with the latest ANZ Business Confidence Survey showing business confidence at a low not seen since the GFC.

So you're saying Ebert Construction went into receivership due to a "Business Confidence Survey"? Are you sure it wasn't bad management, lack of finance, too many bad debts, or any of the other usual causes of business collapse. I look forward to the auditor's report confirming it was just a lack of confidence.

Anonymous said...

And here is a more balanced view other than "The sky is falling".

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/103016504/fact-check-business-confidence-surveys-have-little-to-do-with-actual-economy

After 20 years the survey, by the same people, found that business got it right only 20% of the time.

Lord Egbut

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Just like Fairfax going broke in Australia had nothing to do with bad management, poor product quality, political bias etc etc? You choose your sources so well, Legbut.

Gerald said...

.1percent Disgraceful.
On the bright side female unemployment has droppped.
Diversity perhaps?

The Veteran said...

David ... don't be stupid. Of course I'm not saying that Ebert Construction went belly up because of the latest BCS. The two stand alone but are pointers to the economic environment that is being foisted upon us by the CoL with more to come. I know from my contacts that many businesses have stoped hiring. You add into the mix Labour's determination to wind the clock back with workplace law reform and some fairly dark clouds looming over the world financial markets and I look forward to having this discussion again when the figure for the December quarter comes in by which time the lag effect of all these changes will have worked their way through.






David said...

Sorry Veteran, but you've just been shot down in flames by Property Council chief executive Connal Townsend.

"Look at Ebert and Fletcher [Building]: they tender and hope they get away with it. They try to screw the price down to win the work, put in a bid and then just hope they will get away without any escalations in costs and materials and labour.

"We need a fundamental change in New Zealand. The head contractor is hit by price rises and they pass it down the chain. It's a problem with the allocation of risk and, quite frankly, it all comes back to that," Townsend said.


Self inflicted wounds. Nothing to do with business confidence surveys. Nothing to do with the government.

Everything to do with bad business practices.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Veteran

He's still being stupid.

David said...

Ah, Adolt, The Suppository of All Wisdom has spoken.

Anonymous said...

As Walter has never been right in any of his speculation his posts here are tantamount to agreeing with you David.

Lord Egbut

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Heckle supporting Jeckle, as always.

The Veteran said...

Ebert is not the only building firm in trouble ..... do the research. But, as I said, that’s only one pointer. There are many others. It’s in my diary to respost this come Dec .... it will give me no great pleasure to be proven right.

Anonymous said...

Look forward to it Veteran....but please include the graphs of the UK and Aust building slide........we are heading towards a a world wide credit crunch that has nothing to do with local politics, except where Govts have acted with prudence, and I don't include Keys tenure as prudent.

Lord Egbut (Keep an eye on Turkeys default).........:-0

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Veteran

Hearing Legbut talk about prudence reminds me he knows less about matters fiscal than he does about 24D and 245T. But doesn't he manage to do so well at sounding as though he knows something about it?

Silly bugger gives the game away though when he disparages John Key's and Bill English's tenure as 'not prudent.' In my view they erred on the side of prudence.

Anonymous said...


As usual Walter has it 100% volte face. Going for the perfect score I should imagine.

Clark's fifth Labour Government reduced debt from 22.6 per cent of GDP in 2000 to 5.5 per cent in 2008.

During Key's National Government, debt as a percentage of GDP went from 9.1 per cent in 2009 to 24.6 per cent in 2016.

When the financial excreta hits the whirling blades of inevitability we will hurt more than should have been necessary, however the electorate chose the bribe.


Lord Egbut

The Veteran said...

Egbut ... trying to airbrush history. The Clark govt may have reduced debt but they handed the incoming National government a decade of deficits ... not my words ... the Treasury briefing papers to the incoming government. Then the GFC and the 'small' matter of the a couple of earthquakes and of course the debt increased ... the alternative was to go down the path advocated by ACT and 'let them eat cake'.

Careful economic management saw the CoL handed a healthy surplus which they have proceeded to squander on low quality spending leaving no money for State sector pay rises which has led to unprecedented strike action ... and the 'books' are only going to get worse.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

I wonder if our local economics genius knows what percentage of household income is held as debt in the average Kiwi home?

I wonder if he has the vaguest clue why NZ's economy under John Key's tenure was the envy of the western world.

I wonder whether he actually knows anything about anything.

David said...

I wonder if he has the vaguest clue why NZ's economy under John Key's tenure was the envy of the western world.

In your dreams, Adolf.

2017 Ireland GDP per capita 68,977 v NZ 42,496 for a very similar population size.


Anonymous said...

The subject was the looming credit crunch where overseas debt is important and internal debt is not......only you could get confused.

Lord Egbut