Friday, July 20, 2018

NOTE THE CORRELATION

Lindsay Mitchell is a respected fellow blogger.   She nails her colours to the wall with her sincerely held belief that the welfare state is unsustainable economically, socially and morally.    Two graphs she has just posted caught my eye.  

They tell a story.   No further commentary needed.




30 comments:

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Only slightly tongue in cheek, does that mean all the fathers are in jail?

There needs to be a third graph showing, for comparison, the percentage of the general population represented by each ethnic group.

Anonymous said...

"In a developed country like New Zealand, we can make choices – do we pursue economic growth and enable a small section of the community to accumulate wealth.

"Or do we adopt a caring philosophy where government policy is aimed at improving the education, welfare and health of its poorest...we can't do both."

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12092325

Education, education and education even if it is the carrot and stick approach. Our system is broken, we have lost sight of the objectives of government which is to ensure that our population is adequately educated, fed and housed. For to long we have allowed a system which encouraged the accumulation of wealth and a garage full of toys to take precedent over common sense. The tax burden falling on the rapidly decreasing middle classes is becoming unsupportable and we are beginning to resemble a Sth American country where the extremely rich live Ghetto's and the vast mass of the population live in a very much bigger ghetto......or jail.

Lord Egbut



Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Shit eh? I knew France was bad but I didn't think it had gone quite that far.

Anonymous said...

You don't think, fullstop.

Lord Egbut

Gerald said...

No commentary needed.
How about if you check the Corrections pie charts for the last eight years.
Yup all similar.

The Veteran said...

Gerald ... your point? What I take out of those two pie charts is that children who grow up in a broken family are more likely to end up in jail.

David said...

But that isn't what the charts show. The prisoner chart does not show the family status of the prisoner.

What the chart shows is that brown people, who are usually the least well resourced, end up in prison more often that white people. White people are generally able to afford better lawyers, are more likely to receive home detention and fines rather than custodial sentences, and many of the crimes committed almost exclusively by white people do not attract jail sentences.

You really also need to define "broken family". Is a white widow part of a broken family, or is it just a brown woman whose husband is in jail?

Note also that, like most western nations, NZ's crime rate has been dropping, it is now around half what it was 25 years ago.

Brick said...

No Lord Egbut - to requote you - For too long we have allowed a system which encourages the indolent to avoid work, our poorest stock to breed without restraint, and avoidance of any personal responsibility. Certainly the middle class are being robbed to pay for all this political largesse, but the major contribution in taxes still comes from those who have succeeded in spite of the system.

David said...

It's OK Brick, you can always resort to Eugenics and Das finale Resultat. After all, Arbeit macht dich Frei. Amiright?

Johno said...

Don't be a wanker David, all that is purely your own invention and nothing to do with what Brick was saying.

Anonymous said...

Education Brick.......If it costs $250 a day to keep a prisoner and that is being topped up by family welfare would it not make sense to instigate a universal income providing married/civil partnership couples attend lectures in local colleges with subjects ranging from home economics, hygiene (see my link) etc.

Forced lectures actually work (providing you have leverage) shown by road safety in the UK. The whole idea is to expand the future middle class by giving the kids a safe environment to grow up in where education is not sacrificed for immediate cash to feed a family. At the moment all we are doing is breeding unemployable jail fodder with no end in sight.

Lord Egbut

David said...

Bullfuckingshit, Johnno.

What is ...our poorest stock to breed without restraint... if not advocating Eugenics?

...avoidance of any personal responsibility ... is simply right wing shorthand for victim blaming. It was her fault she as raped, going out at night. It's his fault he doesn't have a job since the factories were shipped to China.

This is why I have no time for the Lindsay Mitchell's of the world who would impose their immorality on society because they're OK Jack!

The Veteran said...

David ... all I said was interesting correlation. Lindsay Mitchell ... immorality!!!!!

Brick said...

David - argument weak - shout louder!! You miss the point entirely - I am talking encouragement through 'welfare' nothing to do with eugenics. Likewise 'victim blaming' - it is socialism that requires 'victims' as voting fodder, some of us manage to fight our way out of the so-called poverty trap to lead a productive life that does not wait for the next welfare payment to arrive. I agree wholly with an education process Lord Egbut - towards useful and apolitical ends.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

He gets loonier and loonier, as each day goes by!

Gerald said...

Gerald ... your point?

cum hoc ergo propter hoc

Anonymous said...

Wouldn't surprise me if a class of 17 year old statistics students quickly came to the same conclusion.
I'd put it in the same category as "After abortion was legalised the rate of crime went down in New York".

Johno said...

David, eugenics has nothing to do with being poor. Stop embarrassing yourself.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Johnno

Leave him be. He gets better at it every day.

God knows what he'll do when the Republicans increase their majorities in both the house and the senate.

Allan said...

Shut up and never be heard of again would be a great outcome for us all Adolf.

The Veteran said...

Gerald ... so your argument is that children bought up in broken families are less likely to end up in jail than those raised in a stable environment.

Gerald said...

Don't talk rubbish. It's not broken families to start with its a graph of sole parent families.
That correlation without supporting evidence does not prove that sole parent familes are the source of all prisoners in jail.
If you have conclusive evidence of that causality put it up.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Well done Gerald. 'Don't talk rubbish' you say and then proceed to talk rubbish. And as a major achievement you do it all in one sentence.

There must be an opportunity for you in a humanities faculty somewhere.

Gerald said...

Ok Adolt why done you secure the evidence he needs.
What he has presented is simply two graphs that prove nothing.

Anonymous said...

Gerald.......Walter has never provided evidence or links to ANYTHING. Why should you expect him to begin now. He is a disruptor who has never had an original thought.

Lord Egbut

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Yadda yadda yadda.

Three empty green bottles sitting on the wall. Ledgut, Gerald and David.

Psycho Milt said...

The only connection between these two graphs is the ability to make correlation = causation errors out of them. I don't blame people for making those errors - after all, if it's good enough for every academic in the field of public health to pretend correlation = causation errors are "science," why shouldn't non-academics have a go?

If I was going to make a correlation = causation error based on these graphs, the obvious thing to conclude would be that they show that the prison population consists almost entirely of parents and in each case the other parent has been left alone with the children.

Anonymous said...

And you would be wrong, so what is the point in these pie charts?

Legally registered relationship status(1) for people living in prisons and penal institutions
2013 Census

http://archive.stats.govt.nz/Census/2013-census/profile-and-summary-reports/outside-norm/prison.aspx

Lord Egbut

Lindsay Mitchell said...

Apologies for a late arrival to the conversation.

A report I recently wrote about imprisonment and family structure can be found here:

https://www.familyfirst.org.nz/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Imprisonment-and-Family-Structure-What-is-the-Evidence-Telling-Us-2018.pdf

Family First commissioned it. I wrote it. It's my work without interference.

Happy to argue the toss with anyone who actually reads it.

(The graphs I blogged are not from the paper).

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Lindsay

Regrettably, trolls don't read past the first 140 characters.