Saturday, July 7, 2018

MAORI VOTING WITH THEIR FEET

The Maori Electoral Option 2018 has less than a month to run. The Electoral Commission publishes monthly updates detailing  movements between the General and Maori Rolls along with new enrolments.  Their latest statistical update covering the period 3 April (the start date) through to 2 July makes fascinating reading.

Switches from the Maori Roll to the General Roll ... 9,274
Switches from the General Roll to the Maori Roll ... 6,728
New enrolments by Maori on the General Roll ... 1,402
New enrolments by Maori on the Maori Roll - 2,114

The impact of these moves on both the General and Maori Rolls is as follows:

Net impact on the General Roll ... plus 3,948
Net impact on the Maori Roll ... minus 432

The 2001 Maori Electoral Option saw a net increase in the Maori Roll of 24,144.
The 2006 Maori Electoral Option saw a net increase in the Maori Roll of 14,914.
The 2013 Maori Electoral Option saw a net increase in the Maori Roll of 7,052

One thing you can be certain of ... there won't be any additional Maori seats this time round.   There is a (small) possibility that the overall increase in the General Roll (Non-Maori and Maori) could lead to a reduction in the Maori seats from seven to six.

It's against this background that Labour MP Rino Tirikatene has introduced a Private Members Bill seeking to 'entrench' the Maori seats.   Faced with these sort of numbers you can understand his rationale for doing so.   Maori are voting with their feet against the Maori seats.   The Bill will not be passed.   National, ACT and NZ First are opposed to it.

And what has silly old Winston Peters to say about this.   He has called on Labour to introduce a SOP to Tirikatene's Bill to provide for a nationwide referendum on whether the Maori seats should be done away with.   Hubris and cant.   He knows Labour can't do that.   Note that he called on Labour to introduce the SOP.   There is nothing to prevent NZ First from introducing their own SOP if they are serious ... problem is Winston took this off the table in signing up to the coalition agreement.   He knows that were NZ First to act unilaterally to do this it would bust the CoL wide apart.   His baubles would be gone with the wind.

WRP doing what he does best ... all bullshit and bluster.



7 comments:

paul scott said...

One of the ways of judging general electoral swing is to monitor a specific group of people over a prolonged period.
This could also be say Accountants or people with three children or people who are 55 years of age.
It seems weird at first sight, but it measures small changes in a similar population as representative of a larger overall swing quite accurately
The group centre-right who voted NZ First last time would not be a suitable group. We will almost to a man, vote against Winston on any and every occasion.
We were laughed at here and elsewhere before the election for granting any semblance of decency to WRP. The laugh is still on us, but Nat will be useless until it realises the obvious and appoints Judith Collins as the leader.

Anonymous said...

This has little effect on the current political landscape.
Under FPP National said it would support the abolition of Maori electorates only when Maori themselves were ready. National had no desire to remove the seats. National knew only too well that if the huge number of Maori Labour votes were released into general electorates then National would never be in Government again. Just think how safe for Labour previously marginal seats, held by National, such as Gisborne, Tauranga, Rotorua, Taupo, Hamilton East, Hamilton West, Hauraki, and Raglan would have become. Labour was simply too dumb to recognise this, and were happy with the "four birds in the hand" Maori seats that they would always have. They also realised that they did not have to do any more than have a token Maori Cabinet Minister for appeasement value, and then non-Maori MPs did not have to bother with any Maori dialogue.
If the Maori seats were to be abolished under MMP not much will change in Party representation in Parliament.

The Veteran said...

Paul ... not sure the relationship your post to mine although perhaps what's happening with the Maori Roll option might indicate your argument has legs ...

2001 + 24,144
2006 + 14,914
2013 + 7,052
2108 (to date) - 432

The Veteran said...

Anon 7.19 ... with respect I disagree. Maori voting statistics are abysmal. In the 2017 election the percentage of those voting in the Maori electorates ranged from a low of 59.21% in Tamaki Makaurau to a high of 69.39% in Te Tai Tokerau. In the General Roll seats the recorded low was 72.63% in Botany and the high 86.56% in Wellington Central.

You could argue that if the Maori seats were abolished many of those currently on the Maori Roll would not bother to vote at all.

But actually that's not the point. The argument whether or not to abolish the Maori seats should not swing on the electoral advantage to accrue to any Party. It's whether they fulfill a useful purpose in providing Maori a voice in parliament. With the advent of MMP that dynamic changed. Maori are now over-represented in parliament with 30 MPs of Maori descent ... 25% c/w our Maori population of 15%.

The rationale for the Maori seats has long gone.

Anonymous said...

"The rationale for the Maori seats has long gone."
I agree 100%.

"The argument whether or not to abolish the Maori seats should not swing on the electoral advantage to accrue to any Party."
I agree 100%.

Watch Question Time in Parliament. Those are the people making the decision. Nothing will change any time soon.

Anonymous said...

What's a "Maori"?

The Veteran said...

Good question. Insofar as the Electoral Commission is concerned a person is a Maori if they choose to tick 'yes' to the question on the enrollment reading 'Are You Maori'.