Tuesday, February 20, 2018

Why Collins won't be leader

After recent goings-on, I have come to the conclusion that unfortunately Judith Collins won't win the vote.

Essentially, National Party MPs are inherently cautious and averse to risk.  They prefer to play "steady as she goes" instead of "risk v reward".  There were three risk-taking MPs in recent years - Ruth Richardson, Jenny Shipley and Don Brash.  History shows how they were treated, and what happened to them.

So, the caucus will choose "steady as she goes" next week, and Collins is hardly that.

If I was in caucus, she would get my vote.  But I'm not and I don't get one.


pdm said...

With all of the candidates now known I declare as follows:

Leader Judith Collins
Deputy Mark Mitchell

Anonymous said...

Whoever wins the nomination will not be the next National Prime Minister......so yes, I would go with JC. Eight years is a long time in politics.

Lord Egbut Nobacon

pdm said...

Egbut - you underestimate the likely disintegration of The Hydra - Kelvin Davis will be acting PM in about 10 days when Ardern and Peters are overseas. The cracks will start then and widen when Peters is in the chairwhile Ardern is on Maternity leave.

Let the games begin.

The Veteran said...

Nick ... you might be right but then again you might be wrong. With five standing the situation is very fluid and one thing for certain, it ain't going to be won on the first ballot or even the second. Joyce will have pulled some votes off Adams and Bridges and I suspect those two plus Collins are running neck and neck with Collins a tad in front. Votes once pledged then lost don't necessarily revert back to from whence they came.

Having said all that I don't see Joyce as a serious candidate. More of an attempt to keep himself relevant going forward. Mitchell is playing the long game and whatever the result is likely to see himself propelled up the caucus rankings. So too with Collins who at the very least will be part of the leadership team. It is a fact she is getting huge support from the grassroots membership and my soundings with the 2017 intake of members indicate they are warm to her and her message.

There will be at least one loser in all of this and that name is Paula Bennett.

Anonymous said...

PDM.....so he is going to declare war on Tonga? Tell the Unions they have carte blanche to shut down the country? Pass law making it illegal to drink latte before ten in the morn.

The sun will rise and all will be well in the south pacific paradise.

Lord Egbut

The Veteran said...

Sorry Egbut ... you've completely lost me with your post ... 'he'; 'Tonga'; 'Unions'; 'latte'. You haven't been drinking that 'wrong' sherry again have you?

pdm said...

Egbut - sometimes you show a level of stupidity not exceeded anywhere else in the blogsphere. Your 9.34am drivel is right up there with your most stupid.

Shelldrake said...

There are many comments being made that Mitchell is not known by the electorate. That is a bonus. Make him leader and then the task for two and a bit years is to give him political experience and a campaign of getting him known to the electorate. Sadly all of the others are well known and are, or will be seen as definitely yesterday's people by the time of the next election.

The votes that really count at election time are the swinging votes and the new voters, not the cardre of party faithful. (Think pearls and twinsets)

Anonymous said...

pdm.....tell us again how Kelvin Davis is going to ruin the country in two weeks and how Peters is going to start a military coup the moment PM Ardern's feet move out from under the table.

I'm an easy target for personal abuse as you well know I don't indulge...it's always a sign of a weak argument or a personality shortcoming.

Lord Egbut