Thursday, February 1, 2018

ONE POLL DOTH NOT A TREND MAKE

The first poll for 2018 is out so I thought I should compare the results against my poll predictor posted a couple of weeks back.

In it I said National could expect a small drop.   That didn't happen.  Instead National edged up very slightly over its election night total.  Some 'soft-cock' National voters would have gone over to Labour (winner association syndrome) but that has been clearly offset by pissed of Winston First voters repelled at being part of a government of the left and hard left.

Labour got a bump but not as big a bump as I would have expected.   I really thought a combination of St Jacinda's 'bump' and the fawning media coverage that followed their victory would have seen them edging out National.   Twas not to be.   Methinks the electorate is a tad more savvy than the MSM gives them credit for.   Labour has political rhetoric in spades ... it's the doing bit that's the hard part and so far the doing bit has been marked by backtracking.

I bombed it with the Greens.   I expected their share of the vote to rise to around the 9-10% mark which I thought was their natural base support.    Instead they dropped.     Clearly the support they leaked to Labour following the Me Tu affair is staying with Labour.     I suspect too their support for Winston First's waka jumping bill has hurt them.    That along with the 'squeeze' suffered by support parties in government will ensure their 'bedrock' support will likely remain mired in the 5-7% range.

Winston First.   Score 10/10.    Their vote has collapsed and will stay collapsed well below 5%.    Rising from the dead becomes all that more difficult third/fourth time around.

All others polled MOE stuff.    ACT at just .02% should be very worried.    Clearly many erstwhile ACT supporters see Judith Collins as their standard bearer in the National Party.   David Seymour's support for Chloe Swarbrick's medicinal cannabis bill will further muddy the waters. 

But, as I said, one poll doth not a trend make.


9 comments:

pdm said...

`That poll shows why Winston is going hard out on the Whaka jumping legislation. Half his caucus is probably making noises about giving him the flick.

Some to Labour, some to National and some who haven’t a clue what to do unless Winston tells them.'

I added the above over at Kiwiblog a few minutes ago.

Paulus said...

Cannot believe that Judith Collins, who I like, cannot tell Whale Oil to STFU
- his loud support of her, and hatred of Bill English, will not be favorable to Judith as inevitably Bill will retire in the next year.

The Veteran said...

Paulus ... I'm not sure that Cam S takes orders from anyone ... God included.

Anonymous said...

I was banned from his blog for daring to defend Bill English once too often. Not that I care. Slater is vile in his outright hatred of the man. Sad.

Nick.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Nick

When were you banned and by whom?

Anonymous said...

Slater himself I think, last year, awhile back. Nasty comments too. Tired of his echo chamber anyhow!

Anonymous said...

Yup me too....still banned for being correct and my anti racist post did not help. Any post that incites hatred of other races and religions is welcome.....which attracts Russian trolls like moths to a flame.

Lord Egbut

George said...

The only answer whaleoil (the blog) has for logic that doesn't fit his agenda.
Ban 'em.

Anonymous said...

Slater attacks Bill English because he apparently insulted his father once.
Straight from the horses, or should I say Whales mouth.
It has lead to English derangement syndrome and his anger with this and his hacking has unfortunately stopped any good work he ever did

EH of D