Sunday, February 25, 2018

A WARNING FOR NATIONAL

On Tuesday the National Party caucus will elect both a new leader and new deputy leader.   For myself I think Bill English's decision to resign when he did was a mistake.    Labour is still in their honeymoon period and I suspect their poll rating will continue to improve at the expense of National.

I say that in the sense that the Greens current 5% is probably rock bottom for them as is Winston's 2%.    I also think that Bill English added perhaps 2-3% to National's numbers recognising the superb work he did as the countries finance minister.   That  2-3% will evaporate.

English should have waited until well after Labour's first budget was done and dusted and the winter's wind and rain and cold was well and truly upon us (pestilence, locusts and flooding would be better ... I digress).    Instead, and no matter who they choose, the new leadership team will likely face a drop in poll numbers ... that drop will be the focus of media attention and, as a result, the leadership team will be faced with attacking the government from a position of weakness.

In every leadership contest there are winners and losers and so it will be with this one.    The losers have two options ... either to suck it up and get in behind the new leadership regime or engage in internecine trench warfare from the backbenches as Labour did so spectacularly in the case of Messrs Cunliffe, Shearer and Little.      Hopefully 'they' will have learned from that but bruised egos and thwated personal ambition can sometimes result in irrational behavior.

The challenge is there for National.   How they react to that challenge will determine whether the government is to survive more than one term remembering always that oppositions seldom win elections ... governments lose them.


10 comments:

Gerald said...

Doesn't matter who is selected now. Labour has shown that you can change just before an election and increase you poll standing.

The Veteran said...

Gerald ... only from an abnormally low start point back to where they should have been anyway. Still, as you said ... lotsa water ....

Anonymous said...

National have lapsed into complacency. A sharp person with a bit of mongrel is required to drag them back to the center right and sell sensible and accountable as concepts to the masses. More of the same with lame ducks like Bridges or Adams will not save them. Smith needs the heave ho and so on. I can't see it happening because its become an old boys club.

3:16

Wilbur said...

Bill English's relationship with Winnie has been toxic and beyond repair for 20 years, or so I'm told.

If English was not capable (or willing) - for whatever reason - of working with NZF then he should've never been anointed the job as PM.

These wizards-of-smart in the National Party who still seem to think they can govern alone in an MMP environment need to be drenched in phlegm and butt-fucked. This current fiasco rests on the heads of Key. English, Joyce and Goodfellow and the born to rule pomposity they espouse.

The Veteran said...

Wilbur ... I would appreciate it better if you commented on the substance of my post (as you did first time round). Key and English arn't players while Peters was toxic, is toxic and will remain toxic as you and yours will find out to their chagrin.

My post was all about the future and that's something that Peters doesn't represent (thank goodness).

Anonymous said...

Navel gazing and poll dancing at this early stage is about as pointless as forecasting currency fluctuations. Nationals complacency and hubris led to their defeat and now they have to start talking to the people again and not the business leaders.

Big lesson on complacency and hubris yesterday...Scotland, the perennial wooden spooners, absolutely hammered England in the Six Nations.

Lord Egbut

Anonymous said...

My God, I have just found myself agreeing with 3:16 who is probably Andrei.

Lord Egbut

The Veteran said...

3:16 ... Smith and/or the voters of Nelson will decide his future. For the Party to give Smith the heave-ho would be to do a Winston Peters.

So we will leave the heave-ho bit to Labour and the Greens who both support this noxious piece of legislation ... which they will regret to their everlasting shame.

Anonymous said...

Nope. Wouldn't know Andrei if I fell over him. Not even a Roman Catholic.

3:16

Anonymous said...

At the end of the day, National won the election, Winston took advantage of the flaw in MMP, stole it, it was always going to happen. Nats won the most votes, so why change too much. MMP needs to go also, but will it? Labour won't ever get rid of it, but I bet National would love to see it go, as it stands. MMP could have worked, Winston wrecked it.

Ron