Friday, December 22, 2017

Why National is screwed

Simon Wilson has an excellent piece on The Spinoff called "It’s not easy being Jacinda: the challenges ahead."

He does describe significant challenges for Ardern over the next three years, but I was most struck by the challenge that's facing the National Party:

...the new government isn’t just warming the benches. It has a grand goal, which is nothing less than to rebuild New Zealand society. They’re going to lift hundreds of thousands of people out of poverty; fast-track the desperately needed construction of homes, transport and other urban infrastructure; upgrade outcomes in education; overhaul the disgracefully neglected health system; build a higher-wage economy; kickstart the country’s retirement savings programme; reform the relationship between beneficiaries and the state. 
And keep the economy on an even keel. And! Establish that countrywide strategic campaign to synthesise economic and environmental planning – we’re going to become both carbon zero, in time, and more economically robust. 
Maybe they won’t get it all done. But is there anyone who thinks they shouldn’t try? Is there anyone who thinks these goals are not precisely what a government in a developed country with a strong economy should be doing? What it should be ashamed of itself for spending, say, nine years in power and not doing? 
National’s path back to government is not to keep saying yeah, nah that’s stupid. It’s to convince us they could do the job – the same far-reaching, visionary job – better. Because as became clear in the election campaign, Labour, not National, has set the agenda.

National convince us it could do better than Labour at taking a long-term approach to governing?  Oh, they are so, so screwed...


Paulus said...

Show me the money ! - over 40% of families pay no taxes already - in fact they are tax collectors getting more back in tax than paying tax.

David said...

Guess you've never heard of GST. Excise duty? Nah, of course not, you're just a moocher and a leaner, aren't you?

Brick said...

As usual - a socialist who believes that taxation leads to prosperity. It may work in the very short term, but then the money runs out, and its back to a stable government to repair the mess. Keep your hopes up Milt - maybe it will work this time, but history is against you.

Anonymous said...

THE PEOPLE starve because those above them eat too much tax-grain. That is the only reason why they starve. The people are difficult to keep in order because those above them interfere. That is the only reason why they are so difficult to keep in order.

Tao Te Ching @ 6000 BC

taxation is a very old problem.....

B Whitehead

The Veteran said...

Milt ... Recipe for success ... Under promise and over deliver. Recipe for failure ... Over promise and under deliver. From where I sit #2 appears very much in play. The billion trees have been cut in half ... no sign of a single 'affordable' home let alone 100,000 (and pray tell what's the definition of affordable ... asking you because the Govt won't say) and let's not even mention how long it took the Jones boy to be slapped down over 'his' work for the dole proposal nor canvas the winter power subsidy rort where, next year, recipients will only get half of that promised ... the list is mounting up.

Right now the govt is enjoying its honeymoon but I will be waiting to see how they cope in a crisis where the inherent instability of the coalition will be tested.

As for National ... the idiot who wrote that article had clearly not read the first rule in politics ... Oppositions don't win elections ... Governments lose them.

Psycho Milt said...

It's certainly true that promising little and delivering less was a recipe for success for the previous government, but after nine years the gloss wore off it. We now have one that's actually willing to do stuff that needs doing. It's going to make a lovely change.

macdoctor said...

Let's see. Navigated through recession (Thank you, Mr. Cullen); Global financial meltdown; not one, but TWO Christchurch earthquakes and a Kaiakora one. Finally managed to return to surplus and a booming economy which will now promptly be destroyed by people with "vision" and no damn clue how to run a country. See you in 2020, Milt. Your "visionaries" will have tanked the economy, built no houses, planted no trees and made diddly squat difference to the lives of deprived children (if they are lucky and their lives are not worse). Enjoy your little rose-colored reality bubble while you can.

Anonymous said...

What honeymoon? National still lead in the polls, the govt being the govt should be ahead, but are not. More like Labour is screwed, and this is likely to be a one term govt. Winston is already near the threshold, only a few months in. This govt was foisted on the people, rather than being chosen by the people. The polls reflect that.


Judge Holden said...

Struggle with maths don’t you Ron. Can’t even count to 50. It’s a Tory blight.

Macdoctor, you can’t actually prescribe drugs can you? Man, that’s a frightening thought. Piss off back to Cwusader Wabbit, there’s a good chap. No doubt there’s some Trump dick to suck on, or Muslims to disparage and you’re missing out.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Sludge Holden gives lessons in fuckwittery. He pays students fees to attend.

Leading in the polls does not mean 50% or more. It means more than each of the other parties individually.

Fortunately for healthy NZers, his level of immaturity, brainlessness and juvenile smut prevents him from ever being in a position to prescribe or dispense anything more dangerous to mankind than bullshit.

Judge Holden said...

The government is ahead, Adolt, you retard. Have your nurse read you Ron’s comment.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Sludge there is no such poll. Opinions polls are all about parties. The fact is, National leads in the polls. Get used to it.

Go outside and beg for some more student fees.

Psycho Milt said...

The fact is, National leads in the polls.

They did in September too, and much good it did them. They're now even worse off, according to Colin James:

"The average of the three post-government-formation polls has given National 42.4%, 11% behind the three-way government's total of 53.4%: Labour 39.3%, Greens 8.6% and New Zealand First 5.5%. A Labour-Green-only combination has a clear 5.5% lead over National."

So yeah, leading in the polls but also totally screwed.

Judge Holden said...

Adolt finds it hard to add. I get it now! Perhaps he should take advantage of the free fees policy and do a course in remedial maths, and another one in logic and how about ethics? Entry level of course.

The Veteran said...

So no-one from the dark side is prepared to tell us what 'affordable' means. Funny that .... waiting, waiting ... PM, Mr Holden ... where are you?

Judge Holden said...

Look in up in the dictionary, Shakespeare.

Look, it’s not the left’s fault that the Nats ran out of ideas back in 2009 and just drifted along fueled only by Key’s cheery disposition. You guys simply lack anything close to a vision and a plan. Go get one and you might have a chance. Merry Christmas, losers!

Pogo said...

As usual - a socialist who believes that taxation leads to prosperity. It may work in the very short term, but then the money runs out, and its back to a stable government to repair the mess.

Keynsian economics gave us unprecedented growth in the true economy. It saw the creation of the "middle class", home ownership, high paying jobs for the masses, and all at very low rates of personal debt.

The replacement of Keynsian economics with the magical thinking of James McGill Buchanan has seen the hollowing out of the middle class, decline in well paying jobs, increasing personal debt and a massive transfer of wealth from the many to the very, very few.

stable government is Right wing talk for a bunch of arseholes enriching themselves and their mates. Reagan, Bush 1 & 2, and now Trump, all oversaw massive increases in US deficit. Trump's latest orgasm is going to see another $2 trillion added to the US deficit as well as massive tax increases for the wealth creators, the working class.

Psycho Milt said...

Veteran: of course the government's opponents would like it to give them a handy stick to beat it with. Equally obviously, the government's not going to hand one over if it can help it.

If you really are struggling with what "affordable" means in terms of housing, this article should help. It makes it pretty clear just what a clusterfuck the previous government created for its successor, and if Twyford has a difficult time cleaning up that mess, it reflects only on the people who made the mess.

The Veteran said...

PM/Holden ... so no answer then just noise. And of course the Govt can't define it so what's left ... answer, nothing from a Govt that over promises and under delivers.

Get used to it people .. you're gonna see a lot more weaselly bullshit from this bunch of losers.

Psycho Milt said...

The government doesn't have to define it. Nobody has any trouble grasping the idea that houses shouldn't be 9 or 10 times the median household income, so all the current government has to do it is make it less ridiculously un-affordable to be looking a lot more competent than the last lot. Given that, they'd be mugs to put a number on it.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Yes Milt. Right out of Pelosi's play book.

Pass the legislation so that people can see what's in it. Then lie through your teeth about it FOREVER.

David said...

Ah, Adolf, that would Trump's $2 billion deficit increase.

Lying through his teeth that it will cost him millions when he will be one the biggest beneficiaries.

Many tax exemptions repealed, but there are huge exemptions for property developers.

The bill does away with “like-kind exchanges,” where you sell a property and invest the money in another property and don’t get taxed on it. Those exchanges will now be taxed — except for real estate developers.

There’s also a cap on interest deduction at 30% — again, for everyone except real estate developers.

And for Sen. Bob Corker, who has made millions in real estate and was caught two years ago not disclosing those millions. He was a last-minute switch to vote for the bill when these exemptions were dropped in at the last minute.

Tax cuts for the producers, the workers, last for 3 years, then will rise. In the meantime, many of them will lose health care. They will lose deductions from tax, such as teachers buying classroom supplies, they will lose deductions for state taxes. Tax cuts for the moochers, the unproductive, the speculators and gamblers, and property developers will last forever.

Good old spindle shanks, a living, breathing, street walking example of the Dunning Kreuger effect if ever there was one.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Careful now, David. You'll get giddy from all that spinning.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Explain yourself, David.

"Tax cuts for the producers, the workers, last for 3 years, then will rise"

I'm unclear how a cut can rise.

Psycho Milt said...

Yes Milt. Right out of Pelosi's play book.

Adolf, I don't read or watch any American nutbar media so haven't the faintest idea what that even means.

Is it along the same lines as being worried about the housing crisis before you get elected and then spending nine years pretending there isn't one? I remember that well enough.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Poor David.

He was referring to the legal provision (courtesy of Democrat Senator Byrd) whereby tax cuts for individuals, in this case, must start to abate in three years time and expire in 2027.

David does not appear to have spotted the trap. In three years time, their will be a presidential election before which the GOP will bring on a new tax measure reinstating the current (new) individual tax rates for at least the next five years.

If the Democrats oppose the measure they will be castigated for it during the campaign. If they vote for the measure or abstain, the GOP will claim credit.

It's what David's friends in the Democratic party have come to know as "Lose,lose."