Sunday, December 10, 2017


I am a tad surprised at the result of the first post election One News Colmar Brunton Poll.    I would have expected Labour to have enjoyed a 'honeymoon' bounce and overtaken National as the most preferred Party.    Not so .....

National 46% +1.6% from the election)
Labour 39% (+2.1%)
Greens 7% (+0.7%)
Winston First 5% (-2.2%)

What is not surprising is that on this result Winston First is margin-of-error stuff from being out of Parliament.  

Lotsa water etc 


Adolf Fiinkensein said...

It was Labour's dead cat bounce.

Psycho Milt said...

The left vote's spread across two parties, so you need to look at them together. Labour's share is irrelevant on its own.

The new government's going to have its work cut out for it fixing the mess National left behind, and it won't improve its popularity in the process. I expect they won't be too popular at all once they start fixing rivers, housing, immigration, poverty, the health system and transport, and start a genuine commitment to meeting our carbon emission obligations - doing the right thing can be expensive and unpopular, which is one reason the previous government generally didn't do it.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Milt, there's a rather large typo in there but I'll fix it for you.

"The new government's going to have its work cut out for it fixing the mess it has already made and it won't improve its popularity in the process. "

Gerald said...

Adolf living up to his title.

Anonymous said...

Doesn't surprise me at all. National won the election, and the new govt has been
hopeless from day one. Even the MSM have noticed. I'm surprised Winston First
isn't polling even lower than they are, but in time, as the COL continue with their
shambolic governance, I am sure they will slip below five percent.
National must be feeling vindicated by that poll.


pdm said...

Milt - the way it is shaping up so far is that `The Hydra' led by Ardern is going to do a lot of talking about issues which don't really exist- so called Global Warming being a prime example.

All talk and no do other than through taxpayers money around to no purpose.

pdm said...

Oops throw not through in the last sentence.

Judge Holden said...

Do you believe the laws of physics to be a hoax, pms? Interesting. Do tell more.

Vet was hoping for a collapse in centre left support. It’s gone up, boo hoo. Ardern’s own numbers are slaughtering Billy’s. That’s gotta hurt almost as much as Ron’s butt.

The Veteran said...

Mr Holden ... As it happens I think the left vote (the Greens) is a tad light so I put Labour and the Greens level pegging or perhaps ahead of National. Quite frankly I expected their combined vote to be in the 50%+ territory given that it is the honeymoon period.

Looking ahead and in the short term I still expect that to happen before the 'winter of discontent' sets in and the electorate comes to grips with the billion trees con; the affordable housing con; Shane Jones and the work for the dole con; the tax reductions that ain't going to happen; the dumbing down of education standards; the easing up on the obligations for beneficiaries ... and that's just for starters.

Wrap all that up in a coalition that, by its very nature is inherently unstable, and then watch the poll numbers.

Anonymous said...

Polls are irrelevant at this stage of parliament and are only used by those are desperately trying to shape the opinion of the disinterested and bedridden. What ever decisions are made today will not have any effect on peoples lives or the economy for at least a year.....wait out.

Absolutely stunned to see how much of a mess National let the housing market get into. A governments basic rule is to ensure that the the population has the ability to feed, clothe and house itself along with adequate health care, anything else is a bonus.

Lord Egbut

Psycho Milt said...

National won the election...

The capacity for delusion among National voters is astonishing. As a public service, let me explain: the people who win the election form the government. The people who don't form the government have, by definition, lost the election.

National must be feeling vindicated by that poll.

It has the same problem it had at the election: its vote share's in the 40s and it's got no mates. Can't picture any of them being chuffed about that.

Wilbur said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Psycho Milt said...

And of course the thing about polls is that different ones say different things. Here's Colin James on the three post-election opinion polls:

The election gave National 44.4% and the Labour-plus-New Zealand First-plus-Greens government 50.4%: Labour 36.9%, New Zealand First 7.2% and Greens 6.3%. That is a majority of 6% for the government.

That majority has grown. The average of the three post-government-formation polls has given National 42.4%, 11% behind the three-way government's total of 53.4%: Labour 39.3%, Greens 8.6% and New Zealand First 5.5%. A Labour-Green-only combination has a clear 5.5% lead over National.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

For what it's worth, I think the people who run around shouting 'National won the election' are as stupid as those who scream 'Hillary won the election.'

NZ has MMP and the US has an Electoral College. Them as wins them are the winners and no one else.

The Veteran said...

Wilbur ... for your own sake I have deleted your comment about Finlayson. Not sure you could bear the cost of any defamation action. He could take your for every cent you own and more.

Anonymous said...

Was MMP ever supposed to put the losing side into power though? That's not how it was sold to us initially. Was it ever supposed to give a minor party with barely any voter support the final say on government? We need the model of MMP that Germany has, wear the largest polling party actually gets to be government. National could have reformed MMP, I don't understand why they didn't when they had the chance.