Thursday, November 23, 2017


The latest Roy Morgan poll out today and taken over the two week period concluding on 12 November confirms that Labour and Greens are, as expected, enjoying a honeymoon period.

Labour is up 2.6% over its election result to 39.5% and is now only 1% behind National while the Greens are 3.7% up to 10%.

But there will be a certain knashing of teeth in Winston First.   They are now down 2.2% to 5% which is margin of error stuff over them being booted out of Parliament.   Clearly they have upset some of their voting demographic.

Interesting that TOP is still hanging in there at 2% while the Maori Party has increased their support slightly to 1.5%.

One might confidently expect the Labour/Green honeymoon to last through to until the winter sets in although 'their' policy flip flops will be eating into their reservoir of goodwill.


Gerald said...

And another Roy Morgan
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: 146.5 pts (up 15.5 pts)

This is the highest confidence rating since January 2010, which was in the first term of the John Key led National government.

“Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

Right direction 66.5% (up from 58.5%)
Wrong direction 20% (down from 27.5%)
Can’t say 13.5% (little change from 14%)

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Which all goes to show Roy Morgan surveys dumbarses.

Let's see what Colmar Brunton and Reid Research have to say.

Judge Holden said...

Rogue poll! Rogue poll! Shrieks Adolt. I bet the next one will also be a rogue poll! And the next, and the next. Poor Tories. Are we all going to have to put up with your tears and blubbing for three whole years? Can’t wait...

The Veteran said...

Mr Holden ... too soon this poll just like the first one out which showed Labour dropping support and National gaining. The reality is that it would be against all history for Labour, as the majority party in the coalition, not to show a post election bounce once things had settled down.

Equally I put the Greens support as about right having staged a partial recovery from the 'Me Tu' debacle. The decline in support for Winston First is however instructive.
Seems the so called 'kingmaker' is paying a price for Queenmaking. Funny that.

Psycho Milt said...

One might confidently expect the Labour/Green honeymoon to last through to until the winter sets in although 'their' policy flip flops will be eating into their reservoir of goodwill.

Funny, that's exactly what Labour supporters were telling themselves about the National/ACT/United/Maori coalition a couple of months after Labour lost power...

Anonymous said...

Veteran....the sound that emanates from your posts is that of barrel bottom scraping when it comes to dishing the dirt or introducing the element of doubt. This does resemble a more sophisticated approach to losing than the usual refrain from the enthusiastic right ie "Suck it up snowflakes yah boo sucks"

Perhaps in this interim period we could talk of cabbages and kings until the financial or sexual peccadilloes of the main players became apparent which will then drive Adolf into a frenzy of excitement and self abuse.

Lord Egbut

Duncan Brown said...

The Roy Morgan poll is notorious for its swings and general inconsistencies and is really not worth a reaction.

The Veteran said...

Egbut ... thank you for your kind words ... 'appreciated'. We're both old enough to recognise the inevitably of the political pendulum accentuated by that quite curious phenomenon called MMP. All incoming governments enjoy a certain honeymoon period (although we won't talk about the Trump administration). But what makes it fascinating (to me at least) is that this time round we have a coalition government where one party (NZF) would like to pretend that another partner (the Greens) simply do not exist.

Its going to be fascinating to see how the inherent tensions created by that dynamic play out.

But you would not expect me to forgo the opportunity try and create a little 'happy mischief' (with apologies to my good friend DFP) along the way and neither I will.