Saturday, November 4, 2017

LATEST ROY MORGAN POLL

This week Roy Morgan released the first poll taken since the election.    It shows support for the Labour/NZF/Greens coalition government has fallen 1.9% to 48.5% while that for National/ACT has risen 1.5% to 46.5% with all the increase accruing to National with ACT unchanged at 0.5%.

The biggest loser was Labour which saw their share of the vote drop from 36.9% to 31%.    Winston First was also a loser with their share dropping from 7.2% to 6.5%.   Those losses were partially offset by the rise in the Green vote from 6.27% to 11%.

That could change the dynamics in the coalition of the two losers and one gainer just a tad.    Our good friend Psycho Milt will be cracking open another good bottle of plonk.

9 comments:

Judge Holden said...

ROFL. Nothing so meaningless as the first poll after the only one that matters. Whatever gets you through the night, though, Vet.

Paulus said...

These figures have not be approved for release by Heather Simpson (H2).
So they are wrong.

The Veteran said...

Mr Holden ... you may well dismiss this but what interested me was that this was the first time in the last couple of decades that the Party that formed the government immediately shed support to the losing Party. One would have expected the 'honeymoon' scenario to kick in with the reverse happening ... clearly it didn't (except for the Greens ... but I think that's another story).

Yes, by all means glory in 'your' win but it might just be a pyrrhic one.

Judge Holden said...

As I say, whatever gets you through the night, Vet. Some people just can’t handle losing and you’re obviously hurting.

Duncan Brown said...

While I'm interested in the poll, I'm not going to give it much weight. Here's why:
https://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2017/10/how_the_pollsters_did_in_2017.html

Psycho Milt said...

"Our good friend Psycho Milt will be cracking open another good bottle of plonk."

No way - I seem to recall someone before the election (I think in our comments) saying that Roy Morgan is up and down like a whore's drawers, seemed like an apt metaphor to me. Most likely their next poll will have the Greens below the threshold and Labour able to govern alone.

The Veteran said...

Mr Holden ... I can certainly handle losing. Someone much wiser than I said 'the people are right even when they're wrong'. Sage advice. But that doesn't mean I have to roll over and submit meekly to the toxic trio of losers whose programme is something Muldoon would have endorsed in spades.

Seven years to get NZL back into surplus after the Treasury papers to the incoming JC government warned of a decade of deficits and then along came the GFC and the earthquakes. How long will it be before your lot drive the accounts back into red.

Legitimate question. But I see that already they're winding back on their promises.
Our good friend Nick K will be talking about that in more detail.

Anonymous said...

1. GST was increased to 15 per cent.

2. The wage gap with Australia has increased by $32 a week.

3. 100,000 New Zealanders have left for Australia.

4. Budget 2011 cut over $400 million from Working for Families by reducing payments through changing abatement rates and thresholds.

5. National is already spending the money from their partial asset sales policy and Treasury has already hired an Australian investment banking firm as an adviser on the asset sales.

6. The underclass has grown with 32,000 more children living in benefit dependent households over the past three years.

7. National passed legislation that halved the KiwiSaver member tax credit in year starting 1 July 2011.

8. Only a fraction of the jobs promised from the national cycleway have materialised.

9. Early Childhood Education subsidies were changed.

10. The 2010 ''tax switch'' has not been fiscally neutral, as promised.

Lord Egbut

Anonymous said...

Missed the header...a few of Nationals promises that were wound back after the 2011 election.