Monday, October 16, 2017

ON BOOZE

One of the papers presented at ALLAF2017 was from Cathy Clayton, project manager for the Oz National Drug Strategy Household Survey.   She managed the 2010, 2013 and 2016 surveys.   Her subject was alcohol consumption trends.     Some interesting stats.

The consumption of alcohol per capita in Oz has decreased 10% in the last decade.   The decline was particularly evident in the 18-24 year old cohort with the number in that cohort describing themselves as total abstainers rising from 12% to 18%.

But the stat that really had me interested was that the decline in the 19-24 cohort was offset to a degree by an increase in drinking in the 55-70 yo cohort.    Why would that be.   Lotsa speculation but no definite answers ... likely to be reciprocated in NZL as our drinking patterns are broadly in sync with those of our Oz cousins.

Be interested in your comment.
 

17 comments:

Noel said...

This reminds me of the early Agent Orange studies which Governments of the day rejected.
Now it's ok to use data that have the same caveats;

"Reported findings are based on self-reported data and are not empirically verified by blood tests or other screening measures.
It is known from past studies of alcohol and tobacco consumption that respondents tend to underestimate actual consumption levels.
Estimates of illicit drug use and related behaviours are also likely to be underestimates of actual use.
The exclusion of persons from non-private dwellings, institutional settings, homeless people and the difficulty in reaching marginalised persons are likely to have affected estimates.
The response rate for the 2016 survey was 51.1%. Given the nature of the topics in this survey, some non-response bias is expected, but this bias has not been measured.
Both sampling and non-sampling errors should be considered when interpreting results.'

The Veteran said...

Noel ... the Oz study is accepted by health professionals and the industry as a valuable tool in measuring trends and I have to accept that ... not perfect and no self-reporting study is ... but it does measure trends and its trends that I'm interested in.

Psycho Milt said...

...an increase in drinking in the 55-70 yo cohort.

I'm 55 and my drinking's been increasing for years, mostly because my income has been increasing. If I run low I just nip down the supermarket, and if I'm at a pub it really doesn't make much difference what the drinks cost. In hindsight, it's a good thing I had no money when I was 20.

Of course, that doesn't explain what would cause an increase in the 55-70 cohort's drinking over time. I wouldn't rule out the improving quality of beer, though - when I were a lad, the beer in NZ was rubbish, now anyone with a decent income can drink beer that's as good or better than you could get anywhere else. And lots of 55-70 year olds have a decent income.

The Veteran said...

Milt ... the increase in disposable income for the 55-70 cohort has always been there with kids having flown the nest and those with oyo homes having paid off their mortgages. But equally you can argue that for many retirees with savings their disposable income has reduced given the very low interest rate regime over much of that period.

I look forward to some really qualitative research on this but clearly many health professionals have other priorities in arguing for the banning of liquor in supermarkets on the basis that it promotes the normalisation of alcohol consumption among the young.

Around 85% of drinkers are responsible drinkers. Are the 85% to be unduly penalised because of the actions of the irresponsible few? In everything there is a balance to be achieved and that balance has to be evidence based rather than media led.

Psycho Milt said...

Yeah, I wouldn't hold out any great hope for quality research on this from NZ public health academics. They tend to start with a political agenda and then look for stuff they can use as evidence to support the agenda, which is about as crap as social science research gets. Pretty depressing when you have to assume industry-funded research is more reliable than university research.

Anonymous said...

Veteran...the UK studies broadly agree with those figures. The Portman group study is well respected may give Noel some insight into methodology. The UK, Aust and NZ are very much the same in terms of drinking development and establishments. The corner or local pub with a small catchment area has never been the problem. It was the "clubbing" culture that skewed figures for a while. Milt is nearly right in his summation, it is acceptance of wine by our generation that is responsible for the high alcohol consumption in the over 55's. Prior to 1990 real men did not drink wine without their sexuality being called into question.

I too have sat in many meetings at a local level and it was a source of huge frustration when members of the Licensed Victuallers Association refused to put in place basic rules because they might impact on profits.

https://www.jrf.org.uk/sites/default/files/jrf/migrated/files/UK-alcohol-trends-FULL.pdf


http://portmangroup.org.uk/docs/default-source/trends-in-alcohol/trends-in-alcohol-a-compilation-of-data-from-across-the-uk.pdf?sfvrsn=2

Why is alcohol regulated.....for those who don't know the background to English licensing laws on which ours have been based.... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beer_Street_and_Gin_Lane

Lord Egbut

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

" Prior to 1990 real men did not drink wine without their sexuality being called into question."

More bullshit.

In 1970 real men were drinking gallons of wine - and port by the bucketful.

Where were you?

Anonymous said...

The "real men" was satirical but with your conversational ability I expected that to pass over your head........any links on your claim?

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Ledgut

You don't need fucking links. You just need to recall what real life was like in 1970.

Noel said...

Portman group studies well respected.
The Portman Group is a trade group composed of alcoholic beverage producers and brewers in the UK.

Abhhhh would that suggest the possibility of a conflict of interest?

Anonymous said...

Troll Adolf DLT...Yes, now I remember, a hard days work with an Otago P+T line gang and we used to retire to the nearest pub and order jugs of Cold Duck....luvved the stuff The married blokes would go home to the little woman and no doubt the the lamb/mutton would be washed down with Cold Duck. Sometimes overseas guests pitched up and were offered Cold Duck. Most said they preferred wine.

Lord Egbut

The Veteran said...

Egbut ... can I suggest the spectre of 'seniors' quaffing wine ain't a recent development. Started in the 1980s. Not sure it explains the spike in the last decade.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Ledgut

The lower classes no doubt still drink the same gut rot.

Anonymous said...

The 70's, remember them well, humping deer out of the bush for a living. If there had been a jug of Cold Duck handy I would have drunk it out of a hindu's boot. Strangely all I could think of was tea with condensed milk. I must have been a wimp.

Mick

Anonymous said...

Noel.....read the mission statement, as I said well respected because they use ALL available sources... http://www.portmangroup.org.uk/about ..how would you go about it? commission a salvation army report?

Veteran...was that a typo? 500BC is more like it.

Lord Egbut

Anonymous said...

I got out of the habit of drinking when I used my car for work but didn't want to leave it in town and pay a lot to get a cab.

22 YO step daughter is back home (temporarily) and she's a SJW and feminazi. I'm amazed I'm not permanently pissed as a coping mechanism with her about. She is appallingly awful to have about.

3:16

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Tell her to read the biography of Golda Meir.