Monday, September 25, 2017

Post election prediction

The country will be shocked when Winston abandons implicit protocol and forms a government with Labour.

He'll do that ostensibly for these reasons I think, none of which is to do with policy as Winston couldn't give a flying monkeys about policy.
  1. Jacinda Ardern and Grant Robertson et al are *so* desperate for power they'll fold much more easily than English/Joyce et al.  Mallard will ensure it so as to become speaker.
  2. Winston knows he will be able to walk all over Jacinda and Robertson and run rings around them in government - he's too crafty for them.  But this absolutely won't apply for English and his team.
  3. Winston's policy platform is very left and interventionist and matches nicely with Labour's.
  4. National has baggage after 9 years, even if their result on Saturday was astounding.  For example, if there is possibly stuff to come on Oravida's involvement with the damaged pipeline; and Jian Yang's problems with his "false" declarations (mind you, Raymond Huo doesn't look squeaky clean either), that will hurt the government and Winston won't want to be tainted by that.  On the other had, Labour comes with essentially "clean" hands.
  5. Winston and the Nats don't see eye-to-eye.  They beat him in Tauranga; they've now just beaten him in Northland; they teamed up with Rodney Hide to kick him into touch in 2008.  Labour, on the other hand, has no such issues.   
Forget what you read in the papers from Shaw and others, like Shaw won't accept second best etc etc.  The Greens will be in government, and have a couple of ministers outside cabinet (so Winston doesn't need to involve them) and he'll give them some candy like healthy homes and some other mush to keep them pleased.

The players in this will be Mallard, Annette King and Helen Clark.  Clark knows Winston better than others and will be in Jacinda's ear daily.

National should get ready for opposition.

21 comments:

Johno said...

I secretly like this plan. It would be so unstable that it would not last a term and lead to chaos then an early election. Voters hate that and the outcome would be punishment for Labour and permanent oblivion for NZF.

Psycho Milt said...

There is no protocol saying that the largest party gets to form the government, implicit or otherwise. It's something made up by born-to-rule National types and people who've never gotten to grips with MMP. The NZ government is whoever has a majority in Parliament, nothing more than that.

As per your comment on Veteran's "Couple of Observations" post, National has undermined its potential MMP partners to the point where it takes up almost the entire right-wing vote. The Nats may feel great about having cornered the right-wing market, but that market doesn't take it to 51% - without some smaller parties to work with, the right's fucked.

Bill may have been chuffed for himself on Saturday night, but his "victory" is best described as Pyrrhic. He can have a voter-repelling three-year clusterfuck with Winston First, or go into Opposition and start the long, slow process of seeing to it that National has viable coalition partners in the future.

I'm personally tempted towards the flip side of Johno's comment above, in which Bill gets the three-year clusterfuck and Labour/Green pick up the resulting exodus of disillusioned voters to form a solid government without needing NZ First in three years' time. That would mean three more years though of government pretending the country's problems don't exist and building the world's most expensive road to make trucking companies happy. Basically, all the options suck.

gravedodger said...

There could be a moral dimension to a convention to give some credence to a Largest Party, at least when we have a moron claiming a majority of voters voting for a change of government.

Anonymous said...

If Labour don't get the reins this time they can forget about winning in 2020. The largest growing ethnic group in NZ is the Asian bloc. Asians come to NZ to aspire/achieve rather than moan and bludge. Hence National (and perhaps ACT) will grow as this community grows. I think Labour fails to recognise that the majority of the population is more sophisticated than it was in those years when Clark openly led the Party. From her cloistered support for Jacinda her focus seems blurred and mis-directed. I pick National back with Winston giving them supply and demand. Winston will want a Knighthood, an ambassadorship and a notional reduction in immigration. He'll get the first two from National, the third won't occur. In the next week or so we'll see some ridiculous faustian deals from all sides and some vicious ad-hominems from Labour's supporters.

Cadwallader

Johno said...

"Basically, all the options suck"

Agreed, but that's what tends to happen with MMP.

I'd rather see a Nat-Green or even Nat-Lab grand coalition than Nat-NZF or Lab-Green-NZF. Winston is that toxic. The guy's now been rejected by three different electorates - that has to be a unique achievement.

Whatever happens, you have to admit that for a 3 term government to come back and get 46% of the vote, about the same as the first three terms, is astonishing. Likewise for the main opposition party, to only get 37% against a 3 term government, despite benefiting from the implosion of the Green vote and the Jacinda bounce, is poor.


Anonymous said...

Johno: Yes, the media are overlooking the strength of National's result. 46% is incredible for a returning government. For the Opposition to maintain that there's a mood for change is laughable.

Psycho Milt said...

Whatever happens, you have to admit that for a 3 term government to come back and get 46% of the vote, about the same as the first three terms, is astonishing.

That "smear campaign of lies" tactic certainly does work a treat - they were on a downward trajectory until they cranked that up.

Even if they hadn't gone with the smear campaign though, they're effectively the only party for the right to vote for, and upwards of 40% of the country is on the right of the spectrum. There's basically no chance of them going below 40% unless ACT or a similar right-wing party becomes more attractive.

Psycho Milt said...

Asians come to NZ to aspire/achieve rather than moan and bludge. Hence National (and perhaps ACT) will grow as this community grows.

People are starting to wake up to the extent of the Chinese Communist Party's infiltration of and influence over the National Party (something that would have sounded comically unlikely only 20 years ago but is all too plausible now). I can't see that doing National any favours with non-Chinese voters.

Anonymous said...

"People?" Which people? Do you mean the creatures who inhabit Labour's echo-chamber?

Cadwallader

OECD rank 22 kiwi said...

It's a story that has come full circle.
Bill English white ants Winston Peters in getting him booted out of National.
Now its Winston Peters turn to white ant Bill English and boot him out of Government and in all likelihood effectively retire him from politics.

The legacy of Bill English will be as a two time loser.
Whether 20% or 46%, as Hillary Clinton might say, "What difference, at this point, does it make?.

Anonymous said...

Bollocks. NZ First would be destroyed if Winnie did that, and so would Winnie's credibility. He knows that the Greens are toxic to his supporters, would never happen.
There would be rioting in the streets, National have a very strong moral mandate to govern, despite MMP. My prediction is a National/NZ First govt with Winston as deputy PM or Finance Minister, with immigration numbers cut back and a long-promised referendum on the Maori seats. Jacinda and co can squeal that there is a mood for change for as long as they want, but National's awesome result (and the Green's and Labour's dismal one) shows that there really isn't.

Blake

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Milt

"There is no protocol saying that the largest party gets to form the government,..."

If you look hard I think you will find its origin in the Gospel according to Winston.

Psycho Milt said...

National have a very strong moral mandate to govern...

Above 50% is a very strong mandate to govern. Below 50% is a very strong mandate to be the Opposition. Under MMP, "mandate to govern" is usually a matter of what coalition partners you have - with no coalition negotiated, nobody currently has any mandate whatsoever to form the government.

...National's awesome result (and the Green's and Labour's dismal one)...

Once special votes are counted, we're likely to be looking at 45% National and 43% Labour/Green. No famous victory to be had out of that.

The Veteran said...

Nick ... your scenario is certainly plausible but much will depend on how the specials fall. But voting patterns are changing ... in previous elections there has a late night surge to Labour and Greens from the big city booths. This time it didn't happen.

The vote share of National, Labour and NZ First remained remarkably static during the night while the Greens share dropped a tad. If the specials follow the same pattern then nothing much will change.

I agree with your assessment that there is a certain synergy between the policies of Labour and NZ First. Both are interventionist. But Labour can't agree to the NZ First bottom line of a referendum on the Maori seats while Winston would be crucified by his 'oldies' constituency were their tax cuts due to come into force on 1 April be reversed. I have previously referred to the enmity between English and Carter and Winston and that could be a factor.

But one thing for sure. THe decision will be made by Winston and rubber stamped by his dwindling band of MPs and his Board. Its the way he operates.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Milt

Once special votes are counted, we're likely to be looking at 45% National and 43% Labour/Green.

We are blessed indeed to have such a reliable psychic in our midst.

Oh I forgot. That's how you got you name, in'it?

Nick K said...

Vet, I kinda expect this prediction will end up like a lot of Adolf’s ones do!

By the way, really well done in Northland. I’m very pleased for Matt (and you). You have got some good ‘uns this time – Chris Penk is a great guy and Erica Stanford has a seat for life if she wants it.

I can’t say I like Simeon Brown, but that’s life. I will be sad if Nicola Willis loses out as

I think she’s a future cabinet minister.

Psycho Milt said...

Adolf: it is of course a guess and could be wrong. But it does have some basis for its assumptions: Election 2017: the Special Votes.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Milt

Many thanks for that link.

We must be very close to the stage where
ordinary votes are a minority.

I must say I think such a long period of early voting is more than ridiculous.

The Veteran said...

Adolf/Milt ... that analysis was predicated and admitted as based on what happened in 2014. I have already pointed out that the election night vote pattern was different to 2014 to Labour's and the Green's disadvantage.

But I guess all this is moot and all will be revealed come Friday week.

Psycho Milt said...

From memory, the Greens in particular tend to do well out of special votes and National tends to lose party vote share. I'm kind of hopeful that the large number of special votes resulting from people who enrolled and voted at the same time means this year's special votes will be even better for Labour/Green, but there's really no telling.

Anonymous said...

Having the most seats in Parliament and the biggest share of the vote by ten per cent, National do indeed have the moral mandate to form the new government. For Winston to for with Labour and the Greens would be going against the will of the people and the will of the majority. Even the leftie Herald is calling it for National.
MMP is a dog of a system, allowing the collective voice of NZ voters to be ignored, whilst the will of one man and one party, with less than ten percent of the vote, to be able to choose the govt. Second time running, a frigging joke. If he does go with Labour and the Greens, it will be a short-term deal.

Blake.