Sunday, September 24, 2017

COUPLE OF OBSERVATIONS POST THE ELECTION

Marama Fox's comment that the Maori seats going back to Labour is akin to the battered wife going back to the abuser has a ring of truth about it.   Labour have viewed their Maori MPs as voting cannon fodder; generally treated them with disdain and fed them scraps.   Maoridom had a unique chance to establish an independent voice in Parliament.    They blew it.

David Seymour's decision not to be part of any National/NZ First coalition is the right one.   He can now concentrate on growing ACT's vote without the constraints of being in government.   But there will be challenges in doing that.   ACT now is not the ACT of yesteryear.   Come the next election  National will need a strong coalition partner if it is to win a fifth term.   Minor parties in coalition governments tend to perform less well than their senior partner.   Should Winston call it quits the NZ First could well sink without trace.


11 comments:

Angry Tory said...

If he keeps to the foolish promises he made during the debates, Bill English's National Government will be very different to John Key's government.

Sure Jacinda ran to the left of Bill - although, actually, not that far, as did Cunliffe - but Bill ran well to the Left of Labour under Goff, Shearer, probably even Little, and certainly Helen Clark.

If ACT aren't should be looking at 4-8 seats after the next election, finally giving some real steel to the 2020 National government.

Anonymous said...

It seems that the vision National handed to ACT in making Seymour Associate Education Minister was wasted on him. His immature performance over the last year really makes me wonder if this will be their final gig in Parliament. Unless he grows up quickly, all the work party members have done over the years will be undone. Paul Goldsmith next MP for Epsom?

MarcW

The Veteran said...

Angry Tory at it again. I suggest he reads Labour's industrial relations policy just for starters assuming of course AT can read ....

pdm said...

marcw - what ACT party members?

They are invisible in Hawkes Bay.

paul scott said...

It would be fine if ACT could regenerate but look we had a complete nut case Morgan taking 2% of votes and ACT with 0.5%. I really don't know how the right can recover.
The Winston campaign was dreadful, but Seymour's obsessional hatred is really unsettling.
His attack on Richard Prosser's shape was just sad.
Winston needs a Hosking media type or a sports hero type.
Common sense, talent, provision for the future are not cutting it.

Nick K said...

The very basic fact with Act is that it gets 95% of its support from dry National Party voters. We've done the analysis year after year. We have near 20% that will either vote for us, or would give us their second vote, if there was one (I think the term is "seriously consider voting Act"). But the reality is these are dyed-in-the-wool Nats who just don't stray from the GOP. When they did stray in 1999 & 2002 Act benefited hugely.

It's also a chicken/egg thing with Act. I was at a National Party household on Saturday night and all 20 people there said they thought David was excellent and would have voted for us but they needed to ensure National got the most number of votes because it was so close. So they won't vote for us because it's too close, yet if they all voted for us it wouldn't be close.

I've been through all of this for years and because of this, Act loses members and supporters, because they just don't see Act as viable. It's self-fulfilling. That's why electorates like Hastings suffer, pdm.

National is never going to hand over power or votes. In politics, power is never given, instead it's taken. National will never have options on the Right because it is a born-to-rule party that never wanted MMP in the first place. It still operates as a FPP party in elections. That's fair enough. I understand that. Their MPs rely on votes for their careers, and they'll not going to give them to another party.

So it has become too hard. Standing as a candidate delivering 5,000 items of mail for 35 votes is a waste of my time. After 21 years and 7 elections I'm finished with it. A half of one percent is demoralising and embarrassing - Nats will be pleased though.

But now, in all of short, medium and long term positions, National has no friends. I don't believe Act can survive not being in government and having just 1 MP. The only hope is if Winston goes with Labour (and I think he will, with the Greens offering C&S outside Cabinet) and the Nats give David some support in opposition (funding etc).

For the country, it will mean either Left-Centre or Centre-Left government. No one should pretend the Nats are a centre-right party. They give as many handouts as Labour these days. I understand why they do it - to lock in a constituency or three - but it doesn't make it right. And everyone should forget instantly the thought or belief that another party can be formed on the Right. If this election is anything to go by, surely every half-intelligent person can see that in this country, with the odds so stacked against small parties, it's a mathematical and statistical impossibility for that to happen.

Anonymous said...

Excellent post Nick, a thoughtful summary. I still believe that Labour would gain huge credibility and public trust in the bank for the next election if they gifted Winston First to the Nats. WF has the potential to destroy which ever party he goes with.

I see the Premier of China managed to deliver his message to the Norks without donning an orange fat suit and hurling threats........statesmanship is not dead.

Lord Egbut

pdm said...

Excellent Nick - I should have read this before I posted a few minutes ago.

Angry Tory said...

I didn't say the Nat's ran to the left of Jacinda (although, frankly, there isn't much difference)

by the end of the campaign, after all Bill's billions in promises, the Nats ran to the left of Goff, left of Shearer, left of Helen Clark.
Helen Clark's government taxed less than Bill overall, and taxed less than Bill after his "tax cuts"

ACT's only hope is to run hard *against* National. It's not hard, the policies are obvious:
- charterize all schools
- eliminate all corporate taxes and all CGT on houses
- eliminate RMA and all zoning
- cancel Kiwisaver and sunset National Super
- cap income tax so no married family pays more than $50,000 in any year

so long as ACT does't have the guts to have any real polices, why would anyone vote ACT?

National keeps putting up benefits, putting up taxes on the hardworking, putting up barriers to building and development and mining and farming --- if ACT won't call them on it, who else will?

Paulus said...

I would expect Taxinderella to shun the Maori in the same way that Helen did despite they being on a Labour ticket this time.
She will give lip service to them, reminding them as to who they owe their loyalty and their huge pay that they would not get anywhere else - so shut up and vote as you are told.

The Veteran said...

Nick ... good post. Re ACT et seq. Simply fascinating to me that the Conservatives managed to poll 5,318 despite everything ... half that of ACT and while ACT is libertarian and the Conservatives definitely ain't one has to wonder if something might morph out of those two parties. Perhaps I am hoping for too much.

Angry Tory continues to amuse (although he does give good Torys a bad name). In his world anything to the left of Genghis Khan is a pseudo communist. A true believer that Marie Antoinette was right with her attributed 'Qu'ils mangent de la brioche' comment.