Thursday, September 21, 2017

All Over The Place (Updated)

The last two major polls are not consistent so everything is up in the air.

I'm going to average these two polls and then make a prediction, slightly tinge with wishful thinking.

Poll average:-

Party                  Party Vote                  Seats

ACT                          0.5                      1
Green                        7.5                      9
Labour                     37                      45
Maori                        0.8                      2
National                  46                       57
NZ1st                       6                         7

I reckon ACT will do a bit better than the poll average and might get up to 2.0% which would give them two seats.

So my prediction is for a Nat/Act/Maori coalition by a slim majority.

So, now all that remains is to reserve a fine bottle of Coonawarra Shiraz for Saturday, sit back and watch the results come in.

Update

I meant to add, it's a shame the two major polls do not use a larger sample, say 1500, for their final two polls.





4 comments:

paul scott said...

Close Adolf, but a truly wicked conclusion I have >
Nat = 45+ Lab = 36 NZ First = 8, Green = 5 Rest = 5 1 spare > NZF

This is in line with Charles Lennox polls. Thank God not enough to govern without NZF
Without the bloody socialist NZF would have taken 12% but too bad.

This way we relieve ourselves from more catastrophic arrogance, dual sovereignty, corporate welfare, RMA madness, Water which Nat would give to Maori chief, Immigration chaos, housing shambles, Selling NZ land to China.
We also get rid of Smith, Whitehouse, Finlayson, extradite them to me in Klong Toei no more worries. Also Paula Bennett has to go > scandal and Anne Tolley MSD data base.

Anonymous said...

Paul.......For once I'm speechless...... I couldn't do that, even after two bottles of Cote du Rhone 2005.

Lord Egbut

Anonymous said...

Paul, Winston is the biggest socialist of all you dipshit.

The Veteran said...

Egbut ... I could do that after a few slurps of Chateau Cardboard.