Wednesday, August 2, 2017

Will She? Could She? Might She.... a Trump, that is and totally confound all the pundits?

Image result for jacinda ardern

Of course, I'm talking about Jacinda Adern who has been written off by most observers (including me) as a lightweight, vacuous, inexperienced giggling gertie.   On the same day David Farrar pronounced her an excellent debater, Cameron Slater observed that she can't debate.  So much for the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy.

I have a feeling in my bones that she might ring in the political upset of the century and thrash Bill English in September.  The foundation for that feeling is the appearance on the scene of one Helen Elizabeth Clark which, while briefly reported, has gone largely unremarked.   She is the game changer.

Image result for helen clark

Adern has only to do a very few very simple things and do them well to pull it off.  If I were her, here's what I would do.

I'd call a press conference for noon Friday at which I'd announce the following:-

  • Repudiation of the disastrous MOU with the Greens
  • Dismissal of McCarten
  • Hiring of Clark, Pagani and Quinn for positions in the Leader's Office
  • A reluctance, if not refusal, to have a self confessed and unrepentant tax cheat at the cabinet table or a convicted tax cheat on her staff
  • The end of Key Derangement Syndrome within Labour - therefore an intention to fight and win the election without resorting to mud slinging or opposing what is obviously sound policy.
  • Labour Party approval for current and new Charter Schools
  • If elected, an immediate and substantial tax cut with associated reduction in spending  **
  • A new election slogan ' A Bright New Team'   (Nothing could be duller than "A Fresh Approach.")
On Thursday I would have;-
  • Invited Helen Clark to sit in on a special caucus meeting at which I would make very clear that any unauthorised leak to the media would invite a one way ticket to the back benches and possible deselection.
  • Phoned the party president to inform him there was a need for at least $500k within four weeks and he'd better get on with it.
  • Changed the advertising strategy to reflect the 'Bright New Team' theme.***
  • Booked space in all major daily newspapers along with TV and radio time.
Clark's job is to maintain caucus discipline and to provide Adern with daily advice during the campaign.

Adern must avoid the Clinton campaign mistakes.  (She has the advantage of being a far better candidate.)  No 'deplorables' gaffes.   She must campaign hard for the party vote and forget about electorates.  Every day they both must use the phrase  'Kiwi Jobs and Opportunities' frequently.   No campaigning in New York and California when the critical votes are in Michigan and Wisconsin.  Her whole campaign must be aimed at Middle New Zealand - Chris Trotter's legendary Waitakere Man - for whom the important issues are not those beloved by the left.  They are jobs, taxes, health, education and security.

Every Friday there should be a further press conference with new policy announcements.   These should all be aimed at winning back the Labour voters who flocked to National, and NZ 1st.   She should steal policy from ACT and NZ1st.  (For example, how many new party votes would she pick up in Auckland if she promised to amend the Local Government Act to prevent annual rate increases exceeding the rate of inflation?)

In short, she must do many of the things many National supporters wished John Key had done but didn't.


 Newspaper adverts should feature a black and white background picture of the Gnats and a foreground technicolour spread of Adern and Davis, with the slogan 'For Jobs and Opportunities,  Party Vote Labour.'

Not too far in the background run the rhetorical question:-

Why vote for a Dull

When you can have a Bright 
                                    Intelligent   (Just couldn't resist that one)

If she does all these things and performs well against Bill English during the debates,* she may well find herself in the office of the Prime Minister for three years, with poor Winston standing on tippy toes in the eighth floor shrubbery, trying to peep through the lower window pane.

**Tax cuts funded by:-

  • reduction in Working For Families
  • elimination of forty 'commissions' with their tasks returned to departments without extra funding
  • elimination of corporate welfare
  • cessation of 'renewable energy subsidies' (If there are any.  I've been in Australia too long.)
  • cessation of payments to the Clinton Foundation
  • increase in GST receipts

*  A couple of zingers:-

"Mr English we will not be running around throwing millions of taxpayers' cash at incompetent businessmen whose companies immediately go broke."

"Mr English, how can you manage the country when you can't even manage an electorate office in Southland?"


Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Ye Gods!

I just glanced at the Herald and all they can talk about is 'Will she have babies?'

The whole election game has changed and these juvenile fuckwits ask questions about babies?

BTW my score so far is not too bad. 24 hours later and Labour has received $100k in donations.

About now Bill English should start worrying.

Johno said...

If she does all the above I'll vote red!

And at the same time I'll load double-ought buckshot as it must be flying bacon season.

Paulus said...

Where did you get Helen Clark's photo ? - have you seen her recently - not the same woman.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...


You just proved my point.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...


Google Images.

That one is a damned sight more realistic than her photo shopped, airbrushed election mug shots were.

gravedodger said...

When Simon English was reinstated to lead National following Mr Key's departure I had moments of reflection, thinking back to what a disaster his first effort had turned out in real time.

I still feel uneasy, Bill was a well above average financial mananger, a good number two for Key and had made a good recovery from his early false steps in the first five years of this century.
He has done very little to alter my unease in the last eight months. What you presented above is far more possible that the inept utterings on KB for Two Ticks Blue that will be in vain I fear, ending in blue tears.

Too many Nats are in denial,
Woodhouse on Immigration,
Smith well past use by date confused utterings on housing.
Joyce being given another run at Campaign director after a very serious fail in the Northland By election,
Adams a propensity to hand out money based on polls and purchasing peace,
The cluster whatsit that was Barclay and now made worse by the emails that newly aligned NZF ex Cluthea Sthlnd office manager and Blenglish swapped that have fallen into Peters grubby hands,
Total reliance on the Economic miracle that is increasingly being seen as what they should deliver anyway, by more voters every day.
Racial divisions being enhanced by collusion with the Maori Party that under Marama Fox and a waning Flavell who are nowhere near as supportive as Sharples and Auntie Tariana that seemed such a good idea then.
Wasting one point four billion dollars a year on the Climate change scam when as a nation fossil fuel use is minimal in real terms.

It is amazing that like the common cold. Third termitus seems so very hard to avoid and a cure is still years away.

Good analysis Adolf, sad it will never see the light of day in MSM, could be useful to ostrichs who think struggling to the ballot box on election day is enough.

Anonymous said...

Dream on. This won't change much. English will romp home, with Winston snapping at his heels. We will have a National/NZ First govt, with either English or Winston at the wheel, whilst labour will be given a thorough thumping, as polls keep suggesting.
What land are you living in?? Noddy is not at home.

Ronald J

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Ronald J

Which particular polls have you seen in which sampling took place after 1000hrs yesterday? You may well be in for a nasty shock.

If you are going to comment, do try a use your brains.

BTW I see Audrey Young agrees substantially with my analysis. In other words, National is shitting itself which probably is no bad thing because that might get them to campaign actively rather than continue sleep walking.

Anonymous said...

Yesterday the Labour party admitted not only they were not going to win the election, but that they were close to being wiped out.
There's absolutely no excuse for this not being the biggest National+ACT landslide in history.

Anonymous said...

Exactly Anon at 3.38 pm, exactly. Just because the media are going gaga over Lady
Jacinda, it doesn't change the polls. On current numbers, Labour are just about neck and neck with the loony Greens. There must be much clashing in caucus as list mps
are now on very rocky ground!!

Bring it on, can't wait to see National/NZ First and possibly Act, make electoral history. This is a first past the post election, stuff useless MMP. National are going to get two more terms. Oh, it must feel good to be come-back Bill.

Ronald J.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Ronl J

Please explain.

How is this a first past the post election?

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

I'm still laughing after reading Chris Trotter's analysis of "How Jacinda Can Win."

Here's the comment I left for moderation.

"Oh! Now I get it!

Labour lost by going too far left, so had to get a new leader who now can win by going further left?

Why didn't I see that before?"

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Looks like Adolf isn't too far off the mark. Today Labour prepares itself to tear up the MOU, thanks to Turei's orchestrated litany of larceny.