Tuesday, August 8, 2017

What Are The Odds..........?

........of The Greens crashing out of parliament in September?

Unthinkable just a month ago, this question now is seriously being asked and discussed.  Back a few short weeks, the answer was 'a thousand to one.'    With the resignation of Graham and Clendon I'd suggest they are now somewhere better than two to one.

(Politics is such a wonderful sport!)

So, what happens to the other parties if the Greens kark it?  (My instinctive prediction would be a Labour/Winston coalition with Peters as PM but on the figures, that won't happen as they would need the Maori Party for a majority and Winston wants to abolish their seats.

Imagine the result is as follows:-

          PV     Adjusted
National 44 49
Labour 26 29
Greens 4
NZ1 21 23
Act 2
Other 3

Party nameParty Votes wonParty seat entitlementNo. of electorate seats wonNo. of list MPsTotal MPs % of MPs
ACT New Zealand2.00%31232.46%
Labour Party26.00%342593427.87%
Māori Party0.00%0202*1.64%
National Party43.00%5632245645.90%
New Zealand First Party21.00%270272722.13%
Totals92.00%1206062122 100.00%

And wouldn't you know it?  A hung parliament again!

What price a National/Labour coalition?


alwyn said...

Great fun I am sure but why did you leave Peter Dunne out of the calculation?
Even my Labour Party member friends in his Electorate are becoming resigned to him winning.
Very unhappy they are about it.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Sorry about that Alwyn. Must have been wishful thinking.