Friday, August 4, 2017

ON SAINT JACINDA

Can I offer my congratulations to Jacinda Adern.    It's an honour to be elected to lead a major political Party and she takes the job with a certain advantage knowing that Labour has probably reached rock bottom in the polls and the only way for them to go is up.

She is helped by the fact that sections of the media have already conferred sainthood upon her despite the fact she is generally considered a weak performer in the House and, apart from a period as their social wefare spokesthingy which she 'bombed', has had an undistinguished performance in second string, also ran, portfolios. 

Nevertheless National would be kidding itself if it didn't treat her elevation as a real threat.   Peters is probably right in suggesting her election might be worth a seven point jump in the polls for Labour.    Consider this ... Labour with 33% and NZF with 16% and with the wasted vote taken into account you have the makings of a centre/left government without them having to call on the Greens.  

Bad news for the Greens but good news for Peters on a number of fronts.   A two Party Labour/Greens coalition government where NZ First had a third of the seats would put him in a much stronger position than would say a National/NZ First/Seymour/Dunne arrangement where, in that same scenario, he would likely only command a quarter of the seats.    Note too the strong links the Winston First hierarchy has with Labour.   Winston's sister stood for Labour (in Northland); Mark tried (unsuccessfully) to stand for Labour (in Waimakariri); Jones is ex-Labour.    Add into the mix that both NZF and Labour are anti-free trade; that both are committed to expanding KiwiRail (never mind the cost-benefit analysis) and Peters' personal antipathy towards both English (who helped orchestrate his 'departure' from National) and Speaker Carter and I rest my case.

The one 'nigger' (pun intended) in the woodpile is Peters' bottom line demand for a referendum on the Maori seats.   Labour cannot agree to that.   It would be a second 'red line' for Davis who is in trouble enough with his pledge to resign if Labour goes ahead with its manifesto commitment to repeal the legislation providing for Charter Schools.

But we all know Winston First's bottom lines ain't bottom lines witness his pledge to decline the 'baubles of office' which he promptly grabbed when offered by Labour.

One thing for sure ... the election  has just become a lot more interesting. 
 

8 comments:

Andrei said...

Make sure you have your vomit bag at hand before you click this link!

Andrei said...

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/95467650/jacinda-ardern-shows-her-steel-in-week-one

George said...

Every Liebor leader so far (and there have been plenty) have ALL had the same overblown rhetoric in the first weeks of their arrival.
Then they become the familiar face, their utterances go from a gospel to a gossip.
I expect the numbers to rise and then return to the same 20+ percent

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Andrei

The Herald is just as bad. These are the same people who gushed over Obama.

gravedodger said...

For an "impromptu effort" St Jacinda was remarkable, even down to her choice of jacket colour, while accepting her off the cuff remarks totally at odds with the carefully scripted media priming for a much delayed tilt only weeks earlier.
Truly outstanding for a cast in "the dark" until the clock ran down to an hour to go when Andy, the waning star, had his office cancel scheduled media appointments to kick off pre match entertainment for the super bowl.

Very slick for people so un-prepared.

Normmal transmission resumed as deck chairs are rearranged.

Nick K said...

Historically in NZ, MMP gives us close election results. This will be no different. The options appear to be Act or Winston.

I'd be interested in Milt's choice of those two!

Psycho Milt said...

Oh, I'll take libertarians over conservatives any day. At least I can find some things to agree on with ACT (eg, good on Seymour for putting in that private member's bill on euthanasia), but Winston's lot always make me think the nation's old-people's homes must have gathered all their grumpiest and most deranged geriatrics together for a policy brainstorming session.

The Veteran said...

PM 5.39 ... at least we cab agree on lines 2-4.