Tuesday, August 1, 2017

Events, Dear Boy. Events!

Before today's Labour Party ructions I was planning to have a look at opinion poll trends and extrapolate them out to election day, in much the same way I used to chart stocks and shares using graph paper in the early seventies.  (One could predict rises and falls in prices and over three months I made a fortune on paper.   The first company I bought into went bankrupt within six weeks.)

I haven't been able to get hold of a trend table for a poll of polls so I'm going to make do with DPF's current version.  (Which I'm unable to embed.)

From memory, National and Labour have been trending down, Labour more severely while NZ1st and Greens have been on the rise.  I'm going to allow for a typical rise of two points on election day for National and ACT and a decline of three points for Greens.  I'm also going to assume that the nigger in the woodpile, thus far ignored by the media, Tukuroirangi Morgan will bring home four seats for the Maori Party.

Of course, all this was figured out yesterday so what changes must be incorporated now that Helen Clark is back in charge via her toothy apprentice?  (And THAT should worry the Gnats!)

Well, I reckon Adern will do a Rudd and save some of Labour's furniture but not enough to bring any effective change.  Hell, she might even save Little if he's stupid enough to hang around.  I think she'll pull beck some of the Greens' lead.

Anyway, here is the prediction:-

Party Now Projected Adjusted
National 46% 42% 43%
Labour 21% 17% 23%
Greens 14% 17% 13%
NZ1st 12% 15% 13%
ACT 1% 1% 2%
Maori 1% 2% 2%
Top 2% 2% 2%
Other 3% 4% 2%
100% 100% 100%

Let's see how this reflects when overhang is taken into account.

Party nameParty Votes wonParty seat entitlementNo. of electorate seats wonNo. of list MPsTotal MPs% of MPs
ACT New Zealand2.00%31232.44%
Green Party13.00%160161613.01%
Labour Party23.00%292362923.58%
Māori Party2.00%2404*3.25%
National Party43.00%5435195443.90%
New Zealand First Party13.00%160161613.01%
United Future0.00%0101*0.81%

Looks very much like a hung parliament.


weka said...

Option one: Nats plus ACT plus NZ first give 63.
Option two: Labour plus greens plus Maori plus NZ first gives 65.

Winston will be able to cut a better deal with the Nats...or would he demand the PM post nwith Adern as his deputy?

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

He will go with whoever offers him PM.

George said...

A hung Parliament eh ...
Can I bring the rope ?

Anonymous said...

The return of the Maorimander. A Labour / Maori coalition in such a parliament will widely be seen as illegitimate.

Luckily, it's now more likely the Maori will go to Labour, thus removing the Maorimander and supporting a continued National government.

The worst result - the #1 reason why MMP must go - would be that - I dunno, Labour dumps Little for Adern, admitting they can't win. Adhern is on record admitting she doesn't want to be PM, cannot be PM. Labours party vote splits to Greens, NZF, Morgan,
**but Labour keeps most of it's electorate seats**

result: Labour led communist government thanks to what we could lonely call the Labourmander.