Thursday, August 3, 2017

Cynical and suspicious political musing of the day

I have a theory.  Allow me to share it.

Metiria Turei came out and acknowledged her fraud knowing that it would do two things: Galvanise support from the hard core lefties & turn off middle class Chardonnay socialists, making the alliance with Labour harder to stomach for them.  She knew it would be toast for a Little and Labur, but not detrimental to the Greens.  She also knew Ardern was likely to step up, and possibly had discussed it with her.  Turei and Ardern are both female.  Turei might have surmised that even though the fraud admissions still exist, Ardern is likely to be more appealing than Little, and turn off not as many Labour supporters: A win/win for the left.

Paula Bennett is also a female.  National is likely to put Bennett up against Ardern a lot during this election to avoid the male/female battle.  Turei probably knew this too before her admission - it makes sense.

But Bennett will have no credibility if any evidence surfaces that confirm the current rumours.  Turei and Ardern can both emphatically announce that they were up front, and Bennett tried to hide it.

Bang.

Every day I read something about Bennett's problems.  So far she has lawyered up.  To me that's a worrying response.  Turei could have done that, but didn't.  Turei wants Bennett's job.

Turei and Ardern have planned this.  It's a calculated strategy to burn Paula Bennett and have Ardern face English, thereby put a male/female battle in place and garner empathy from that, because men are arseholes and mysogynists - apropos Brash/Clark circa 2005.

This is Turei's shot at it.  I might be reading too much into it, and giving these two too much credit, but I distrust them immensely.

Am I too Machiavellian?

16 comments:

Waikikamukau News said...

Yeah, probably. But at least you can spell the name correctly, unlike that DLT Adolf.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Nick

Just had a look at the accusing site and nobody possibly could take it seriously. It happens to be full of rabid Jewish conspiracy theories, accusations of child molestation against John Banks, prostitution against Christine Rankin and much other juvenile crap.

Further, I think your musings credit Turei with far too much intelligence.

Psycho Milt said...

I think the idea of an Ardern-Turei conspiracy to replace Little with Ardern is a very long bow to draw, but share your suspicion that Turei's admission of omitting to tell WINZ certain things when she was on a benefit is related to the accusations about Paula Bennett.

This bit I think is bang on:

Every day I read something about Bennett's problems. So far she has lawyered up. To me that's a worrying response. Turei could have done that, but didn't. Turei wants Bennett's job.

Turei now looks up-front about things while Bennett looks like she's got something to hide. That's good politics.

The Veteran said...

NK and PM ... you might just have to 'lawyer up' if you keep on about Bennett with exactly zip, zero, no evidence to back up your smear. I thought both of you were better than that.

Psycho Milt said...

Nick K on Bennett:
But Bennett will have no credibility if any evidence surfaces around her (currently) alleged benefit fraud.

And:
Every day I read something about Bennett's problems. So far she has lawyered up. To me that's a worrying response.

Me on Bennett:
Turei now looks up-front about things while Bennett looks like she's got something to hide.

The first statement is demonstrably true and the other two are clearly matters of opinion. Nothing actionable there whatsoever.

Nick K said...

Vet, your comment has me even more concerned!

The Veteran said...

NK/PM ... just because Donna Huata, ex ACT MP, is a convicted fraudster and Metira Turei, Green MP and co-leader is a self confessed fraudster may be uncomfortable for you given your clear political allegiances, your attempt to blacken the name of another MP by innuendo is pathetic and reminiscent of Labour's pathetic and failed campaign to link John Key with the H-fee scandal.

Matters of opinion based on ??????????????? wishful thinking methinks. I repeat ... I thought both of you were better than that.

For PM ... Be very clear and let's, for the sake of argument, say you're right. I'd be calling for her immediate resignation from Parliament and not trying to defend her like you have been doing with Turei. But I guess I have different standards.

Nick K said...

Geez, you need to lighten up Vet. You're getting like Colin Craig!

I haven't blackened anyone's name, and neither has Milt. I don't see the relevance to JOhn Key and H-fee. You're reading too much into it.

I'm glad you brought Donna up. Do you know who prosecuted her? The leader of the party at the time.

Nick K said...

Actually Vet, in hindsight, the word "allegations" is too strong. I've update the post.

Psycho Milt said...

...your attempt to blacken the name of another MP by innuendo...

...doesn't exist. Someone who claims to be a witness has made accusations. I don't have an opinion on the truth or otherwise of those accusations, but I do have an opinion on Paula Bennett's response to those accusations and to questions from journalists, as I'm fully entitled to.

The Veteran said...

Nick ... I don't do innuendo based on wishful thinking and that's what both of your appear to be doing. If you can't see the relevance of H-Fee then I can't help you.
As for your comment about 'lawyering up' and I don't know if that is the case but people do that for two reasons; either because they have a problem or to protect their reputation from malicious statements. Go figure.

As for DH and while the ACT Board expelled her from the Party her fraud charges in respect of the Pipi Foundation were laid by the SFO and prosecuted by the Crown.




Paranormal said...

Got to say MTs calculations have hit a snag with her electoral role address the same as the fathers at the time.

Psycho Milt said...

...people do that for two reasons; either because they have a problem or to protect their reputation from malicious statements.

Actually, three. There's also: to make it clear to someone that they have a lot more money than you and are willing to use it to fuck you up if you don't back down.

Who can say which it is? None of us here, that's for sure.

Johno said...

PM: "Turei now looks up-front about things while Bennett looks like she's got something to hide. That's good politics."

That statement held some water until yesterdays revelations. Certain elements in the media smell blood now and I bet they'll be chasing up the flatmates etc.

Not that this is all bad for the Greens though. If they get rid of the massive liability that is MeTu and get Genter up as co-vagina they'd be a more palatable option for more voters.

The Veteran said...

PM ... your three is my two and those who seek to destroy a persons reputation based on zip, zero, nothing but a desire to deflect attention from someone else in their own Party who f****d up big time deserve what they get.

Johno ... last para, on the money.

Psycho Milt said...

Not that this is all bad for the Greens though. If they get rid of the massive liability that is MeTu and get Genter up as co-vagina they'd be a more palatable option for more voters.

The conviction among right-wingers that the Green Party could do better if it appealed more to right-wingers is just bizarre. It's as though I were to claim ACT would do better if it ditched those classical liberals and adopted some socialist policies. The point of ACT isn't to appeal to socialists, and the point of the Green Party isn't to appeal to right-wingers.

The latest poll suggests Turei's already lifted the Greens' support. Her press conference yesterday nailed it when it comes to appealing to potential Green voters:

"Politicians decide if we have poverty in this country, politicians decide if we end it. That is the point of my story."

Yep, sure is. I'm switching from Labour to Green this election - it's up to Labour to go chasing those so-called "centre" voters, not the Greens.

Re Paula Bennett, I'll just say this: if National has genuine confidence that she has nothing to hide about her time as a beneficiary, she's their best weapon against Turei - so let's see if they use that weapon.