Sunday, July 23, 2017

Events Dear Boy, Events!

Attributed to British PM the late Harold Macmillan, the phrase has become another much overused but pithy and accurate observation on the gentle art of politics.

Take, for example, the political deathbed confession last week from Meteria Turei, that for a number of years, perhaps as many as nine, she was a serial, recidivist benefit cheat.  A fraudster, preying upon the country's tax payers even while she twice unsuccessfully attempted to get herself elected to parliament.

I wonder what unanticipated side effects this event will precipitate?

Here's a wild speculative prediction.

What if the September election throws up a decline in the Green vote apropos its corpulent crooked co-leader; a boost for NZ First on account of its policy to abolish the Maori sets in parliament, and a lack-lustre result for National due to it's leader being pretty boring?   Imagine the final figures go something like this:-

National             43%
Labour               21%
NZ1st                 19%
Greens                 9%
Maori                   3%
Act                       2%
Other                    3%

After reallocating the also rans, the larger parties have the following:-

National              47%
Labour                23%
NZ1st                  22%
Greeens               10%

That leaves a parliament with 121 seats allocated as follows:-

National                56
Labour                  27
NZ1st                   26
Greens                  12
Maori                     2
ACT                       1

So Winston Peters trots off and starts his usual shenanigans of appearing to negotiate when his mind is already made up.  He talks first briefly to National and makes demands which never ever could be met.  Then it's off to court Labour and the Greens while National comes to its senses..

And that's when madame Turei's venality and dishonesty come into play. (Yeah yeah, I know it's taken a while to get this far.)

National calculates it can't manage an NZ1st coalition, even with Shane Jones in the mix, so it slips across to the Greens and stitches up a deal whereby in return for turfing out Turei, the Greens get ministerial portfolios and some important policy concessions on environmental issues.

Winston goes along to negotiate the next day and is told it's all too late.   He is consigned to the back bench from which he can slide into oblivion.  Just for salt in the wound, when the new cabinet is presented to the public, PM English announces a binding referendum of all voters on the abolition of Maori seats in parliament.

Shades of Pearl Harbour.



9 comments:

Paranormal said...

On your percentages National would have over 61 seats with Act & Maori.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

How do you make that out?

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Paranormal

Percentages don't count where a party fails to make 5%.

Act and Maori's percentages are put aside. Their seats result in an overhang.

Get it?

Paranormal said...

If Act & Maori retain their seats they get the seats that equate to their percentage. 1.2% of the vote gets Act 2 seats, one of which is Epsom. In 96 3.6% got Act 5 seats.

Psycho Milt said...

Apart from the wishful thinking reflected in those results, there's the problem that you don't understand the Green Party. Unlike the Maori Party or NZ First, its MPs can't sell the party members out in exchange for cabinet positions. The membership would have to be consulted both for getting rid of Turei (which wouldn't happen because the membership is pleased with her for getting social welfare issues into the news), and for joining a National government (which wouldn't happen because National is the opposite of an environmentalist party). There's also the significant obstacle of a memorandum of understanding with Labour, and of the policy concessions National would have to make being unacceptable to its core constituency (Greens' top priority is clean rivers, National's top constituency is farmers).

In short, the idea of a Nat/Green coalition is a fantasy conjured up by Nat spin doctors in an attempt to sow suspicion and confusion in the ranks of the left. Unfortunately for them, it's about as plausible as a Labour/ACT coalition.

Johno said...

The MOU ceases to exist on election day but other than that, yep. The Greens lack the wit, and are too ideologically bound, to enter into a coalition with the Nats. They'd rather cut of their nose to spite their face and live in perpetual, impotent opposition.

Where they belong, in their current incarnation.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Well to be fair Milt, in this case it was conjured up by me, albeit with tongue somewhat in cheek.

I'm grateful for your lesson on Greens' procedures. I had wondered about that.

Anonymous said...

If the Greens are pleased with Turei then that says it all about them.

Cadwallader

paul scott said...

Did i read that Psycho called the Greens an Environmental party >"because National is the opposite of an environmentalist party" < Whart ?
The Nat dirt roller is starting up soon, Farrar is back from the meeting, watch for the stuff on Winston's health coming .