Friday, June 9, 2017

ON THE UK ELECTIONS

No doubt there will be crowing from our resident lefties based on the headlines but a more balanced view would be that this election saw a return to two party politics in the UK with both the Conservatives and Labour taking between them 84% of the vote.

Labour did well and clearly 'Red' Jeremy outperformed Mother Teresa on the hustings.   Indeed, I am attracted to the comment of one political analyst who opined it was as if the Conservatives had picked up Hillary's 2016 campaign and said 'We'll run with that'. 

The result ... Labour increased its vote over their 2015 result by 9.5%.  The Tories too increased their share by 5.5%.   The big losers were the Liberal-Democrats (who Egbut was touting to do well based on their anti-Brexit stance) down by 0.5%; the Scots Nationalists by 1.7% (losing 12 seats to the Conservatives with Referendum #2 now dead in the water) and UKIP down a massive 10.8% and about to be consigned to the dustbin of history.

With a projected 319 seats the Conservatives are five seats short of being able to govern in their own right remembering that the seven Sein Fein MPs will not be taking their seats in Westminster in accordance with their long standing policy of refusing to swear the oath of allegiance to the Queen.  The Tories will be reaching out the the Democratic Unionist Party as natural allies (up until 1965 it was the Conservative and Unionist Party) and will form the next government.

As for Corbyn and May ... well the former will be 73 years old at the time of the next election assuming Parliament runs full term.   I can't see him doing a Churchill.   May gambled in calling the early election and lost seats and, in doing so, lost much of her authority.   The Tory Party deals to losers and I would expect they will deal to her ... maybe not today, tomorrow or the next day but it will happen and sooner rather than later.   That's politics.


17 comments:

Anonymous said...

I suspect the commonality with Clinton is more along the lines of the following:

- An overwhelming sense of entitlement to power (arrogance)
- Due to the certainty of victory, common electioneering amongst the riffraff is seen as being beneath their dignity.
- Old, grey, and wrinkly - shouldn't affect voting intentions but seems to in relation to female politicians. (Maggie was an exception)
- Both believed and acted on polls that predicted certain victory - polls change.
- Both had past baggage - Clinton as Sec State and May as Home Secretary. Cutting Police budgets over many years is not a good response to an increasing terrorist environment.

I think this election was a good result - hopefully we may end up with PM Boris as should have happened last year.

Jimmie

david said...

If there was a common thread it was that when i read that Hillary was concentrating on attack ads i said she was going to lose. When i saw that the conservatives were running attack ads on Corbyn i said that she might lose after all. Attack ads put your opponent centre stage. You might think what they say is the subject of ridicule, but others may not share your view.

Anonymous said...

Bonkers Boris the Bullngdon Buffoon.....He has lost any credibility that he had and it will be impossible for him to negotiate with the EU leaders as he has blotted his copybook by lying to the British public over Brexit and insulting Brussels.

Veteran...given that it was a snap election with decisions made on the hoof and only 8 working days to get the message across Labour has rewritten a bit of polling history with what is extraordinary result. Imagine how well they would have done if they had the six weeks to tweak the campaign. A good comparison..May and Hillary. Both locked into their own little world of superiority and handpicked spin doctors.

Lord Egbut

Anonymous said...

The strategy is now clear.....to prop up her Govt she has made a deal with the Ulster DUP.......this from a woman he has spent two years calling Corbyn a terrorist sympathiser.....vomit making.

Clinging to power when you are totally fucked is a right wing trait that should be discouraged at the earliest. I hope Little is taking notes.

Lord Egbut Nobacon

Anonymous said...

Clinging to power etc ... is a political trait that should etc ...

Fixed it for you Egbut.

3:16

The Veteran said...

C'mon Egbut ... rhetoric is getting the better of you. Yes, Labour had a good night and the Tories squandered a once in a lifetime chance to put the sword to Labour good and proper but I'm not sure how increasing your share of the vote by 5.5% and winning 842,000 more votes than Labour equates to the Tories being 'totally fucked'. Nevertheless, if it rings your bell by saying that then sobeit.

I should have included among the losers two other Northern Ireland Parties ... the Social Democratic and Labour Party lost its three seats to Sinn Fein while the Ulster Unionist Party lost both its seats to the Democratic Unionist Party. That means the DUP is the sole voice of Northern Ireland in Westminster given that Sinn Fein refuses to take their seats in Westminister.

What's very clear is that negotiations on Brexit have just gotten a lot harder for the UK. Soft Brexit and Hard Brexit are meaningless terms. The Europeans will set out to screw the UK across the negotiating table and will take some perverse delight in doing so.

Psycho Milt said...

...to prop up her Govt she has made a deal with the Ulster DUP.......this from a woman he has spent two years calling Corbyn a terrorist sympathiser.....vomit making.

Yeah, but the DUP's links with terrorism involved terrorist attacks against Irish people, so don't count as far as Tories are concerned - they and the British press are more likely to cheer that on than condemn it.

Noel said...

David this may be of interest.
https://journalistsresource.org/studies/politics/ads-public-opinion/negative-political-ads-effects-voters-research-roundup

The Veteran said...

Milt ... alternative view. The DUP supported the UK government (Labour and Conservative) in its fight against IRA terrorists whose objective was to unite Ireland by force.

Jobson Growth said...

Sorry, Vet, but your assertion of an alternative fact is simply wrong.

Theresa May's new partners in government have strong historical links with Loyalist paramilitary groups. Specifically, the terrorist group Ulster Resistance was founded by a collection of people who went on to be prominent DUP politicians. Peter Robinson, for example, who was DUP leader and Northern Ireland’s first minister until last year, was an active member of Ulster Resistance. The group’s activities included collaborating with other terrorist groups including the Ulster Volunteer Force, to smuggle arms into the UK, such as RPG rocket launchers.

(...)

The DUP also fights hard against women’s right to choose to have an abortion, making them the biggest pro-forced pregnancy party in the UK. The results in Northern Ireland are utterly grim for the many women each year who are in need of an abortion.

(...)

And possibly the most damning passage of al.

The party backed Brexit, and as openDemocracy exposed earlier in the year, accepted a donation of £435,000 to pay for campaign materials across the UK. Under pressure, they admitted that the cash came from a shady group called the Constitutional Research Council, which is chaired by Scottish Tory Richard Cook. openDemocracy research showed that Cook founded a company in 2013 with the former head of the Saudi intelligence service, and a man who admitted to us that he was involved in a notorious incident in which hundreds of Kalashnikovs were flown to Hindu terrorists in West Bengal in 1995.

Theresa May will willingly climb in to bed with known terrorists, terrorists that inflicted much pain and suffering on British people, home grown terrorists, as long as she can keep her cushy Number 10.

Jobson Growth said...

As for Corbyn and May ... well the former will be 73 years old at the time of the next election assuming Parliament runs full term.

Well, it won't go full term, the Tories will be torn and anxious to get rid of May. Boris will want to win his own mandate and we will see Corbyn sweep to power. All in less than 18 months.

Trump is 70, Clinton 69, Sanders 74, age will not weary Corbyn, nor the years condemn him to opposition. At the going down of the sun on the Tory party, we will elect him.

The Veteran said...

Jobson ... your faux outrage does you no credit. Consider this from John McDonnell, close confidant to St Jeremy and Shadow Chancellor of Exchequer, a few hours ago ... Labour stands ready to form a minority government ... errrrrrrrrrrrr. In order to do that and always assuming they could cobble together the support of the SNP, the Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru and the Greens, they would also need to secure Supply & Confidence from ... wait for it ... the DUP.

Sad when 'Holier than thou' transpires to bite you in the bum.

Psycho Milt said...

The DUP supported the UK government (Labour and Conservative) in its fight against IRA terrorists whose objective was to unite Ireland by force.

It did that as well as being involved with terrorist acts by Protestant paramilitary groups, yes. However, things it did in addition to being involved with terrorists are not really relevant to the subject of whether Theresa May is a terrorist sympathiser, are they?

Don't get me wrong - as far as I'm concerned this "terrorist sympathiser" bullshit is exactly that. I'm just pointing out the hypocrisy of the Tories and their propaganda arm (the privately-owned UK media) peddling it as propaganda against Corbyn when they're about to rely on ex-terrorists to form a government.

David said...

hey Vet, you may well criticise Jobson for, as you call it, faux outrage, but I've just opened my doors this morning to the following headlines

Financial review - Crisis in Democracy

The Advertiser - Anarchy in the UK

The Australian - PM Hangs On As mayhem rules.

Their poster declaims - Britains Vote For Chaos.

All of that sounds as though the dogs are at the gates and the city is about to fall. But, guess what, life will go on, politicians will rise and fall like the tides, people will still eat, drink and reproduce. It's just a shame that failed leaders can only be put to the metaphorical sword.

May has cost the country a fortune in staging an unnecessary election, all the while crying the country is broke and police need their funding reduced.

The Veteran said...

David ... that's a far better post than Jobson's. May should fall on her sword before someone knifes her in the back. She gambled and no matter the result, she lost. Her moral authority is diminished and one thing the Tories don't like is losers.

In politics you can only deal with the cards as dealt to you. Northern Ireland's 12 DUP members hold the balance of power whichever way you look at it. You might consider their 'Hard Brexit soft border' stance to be mutually exclusive. Interesting times.

Anonymous said...

Veteran......I'm afraid you have been reading the wrong runes if you can write off the election as a good night for labour.
I was looking for an example to to sum the scale of the Tory defeat. Kensington, one of the wealthiest constituencies in the UK, average house price $NZ2.8 million, which has been Tory since Moses was a mason has fallen to Labour after a recount. This is the equivalent of Little taking Remuara.

There is also a crisis in Northern Island which will render the DUP's contribution meaningless in the Brexit process. I'm afraid, whether Brenda from Bristol likes it or not, there will be another election soon. Brexit is finished, there is either in or out and nothing in between and the DUP would be strung up on those sturdy Northern Irish lamposts if any decision they made resulted in a hard border. Everyone will talk the talk but in reality they are hoping it will just go away.

Lord Egbut

The Veteran said...

MiLord ... don't know how I could describe it as anything but a good night for Labour. A brilliant night would have been appropriate if they had won ... but they didn't.

You nailed it with your comment on Kensington. The Tories are paying the price for an arrogant campaign which misjudged the mood of the country ... in particular the mixed messages they sent to 'their' older demographic ... shades of Ruthless Ruth's MOAB when she/Bolger reneged on the promise to get rid of the surtax on NZ Superannuation ... a decision which gave Peters a springboard to the establishment of his own Party.

There have been minority governments in the UK before ... the Tories/Lib Dem coalition being the most recent example. They normally end up in tears with the junior Party the big loser. Time will tell this time round.

Back here and with MMP it is almost a given that no Party will ever be able to govern in its own right. However we, (the Royal we) are a little more sophisticated in managing coalition outcomes but, even here, they can end in tears (Nat/NZ first ... Labour/Alliance). A successful coalition is predicated on give and take ... problems arise for the dominant Party when it's seen by its own constituency as giving too much away while the minor parties take hits when supporting policies at odds with the manifesto commitments.