Friday, May 5, 2017

NEWSFLASH

Early results from the UK local body elections suggest that both Labour and UKIP are being routed while the Lib Dems are standing still at best.

The Conservatives have already taken control of the Gloucestershire, Lincolnshire and Warwickshire Councils; Labour has suffered major reversals in its Welsh heartland with the Labour Leader of the Merthyr Tydfil Council losing his seat while in Bleanau Gwent Labour has lost four of the six seats it was hoping to defend. UKIP has lost everyone of the 34 seats it was trying to defend while the Lib Dems have suffered a net loss of ten seats in England.

Already there is acrimony.   The Chairman of the Labour Group on the  Warwickshire County Council who lost his seat lashed out at Jeremy Corbyn saying that 'his style (of leadership) is putting people off from voting Labour'.

Only the most diehard Labour supporter would argue these results will not have an impact on the General Election to take place in just over four weeks.

Updated ...  as of 0320 BST and across the nine English and Welsh authorities that have fully declared the Tories have a net gain of 70 seats; Labour a net loss of 39; the Lib Dems a net loss of 14 while its wipe-out time for UKIP.     Scotland is gonna prove fascinating.   They don't start counting their votes until later tonight.

Updated ... as of 0530 DST.   19 English and Welsh authorities fully declared.  Tories a net gain of 132 seats.  Labour a net loss of 117 seats.  Lib Dems a net loss of 21 seats and the UKIP wipe-out continues with a loss of 41 (all their seats).

Updated ... final.  The rout continued.    England, Scotland and Wales have all declared.   Taking the country as a whole the Conservatives gained control of an additional 11 Councils bringing their total to 29 and picked up an additional 563 seats.  Labour lost 4 Councils and now control only 9.   They also lost 482 seats.  The Lib Dems have no Councils and lost a net 28 seats.  UKIP too have no Councils and lost a net 144 seats ... they now only have 1 seat which they won off Labour.

The Conservatives made gains in England Scotland and Wales.   They took control of a Council in Wales (Monmouthshire ... gained from No Overall Control) while in Scotland they are second only to the SNP in the number of seats held beating Labour into third place.

If there's any suprise to me it was the performance of the Lib Dems.  While you can argue Council elections are focused on local issues I thought the Lib Dems, as the only Party with a national presence opposed to Brexit, might pick up on the supposed anti-Brexit feeling.   Didn't happen.   They suffered a net loss of seats.   I do think the reported attempt last week by EU heavies to 'heavy' the UK Government with talk of a hard Brexit may have backfired.   The Brits do not take kindly to bullying.

I'm sure Mi-lord Egbut with have an interesting take on all of this. 
 

16 comments:

The Veteran said...

Wot!!!! all our 'Defenders of the Faith' gone quiet. Wonder why ... not difficult.

Anonymous said...

Veteran...as you say "reported" event. Faux outrage by four main papers who are stoking emotions by spinning headlines. There was no attempt by the EU "heavies" to undermine No10. Quite simply May wishes to keep all brexit talks confidential and the EU are saying it will all be transparent and daily updates will be printed in all the EU languages......as an ordinary citizen which do you prefer?

The article in the German paper that started this all was never translated in any of the British papers...lazy. https://medium.com/@20sthredhead/i-translated-that-infamous-german-article-concerning-the-may-juncker-dinner-that-everyones-been-ac5f952b92e .......worth a read for a balanced view.

Council elections....no comment until I know the percentage of vote. Historically they do not give an indication of future events and and by tradition it is only the over fifties who vote in these elections anything under 25% I would dismiss as it is aways about local issues ie the state of the roads.

Lord Egbut






you

The Veteran said...

Egbut ... low turnout and I'm not sure you can legitimately play the % game. After-all the Lib Dems got 18% despite suffering a net loss of seats. If they got that next month they would be ecstatic.

Nah, what I found hilarious was Corbyn talking up a single seat victory here and there. No mention of the nearly 500 seat net loss. He is delusional and toxic and one can understand why Andy Burnham refused to appear on stage with him following his (Burnham's) victory in Manchester.

Corbyn is the Tories gift that keeps on coming and that's sad because democracy is all the better for a functioning Opposition.

Anonymous said...

Veteran.....The complications here are the Mayoral elections.. Don't rush, read and wait out. https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/files/47182601/Prosser_2016_Do_local_elections_predict_the_outcome_of_the_next_general_election.pdf

Lord Egbut

Anonymous said...

Veteran.....Andy Burnham had already made arrangements for that evening and Corbyn was aware of these before the election (win, lose or draw). A statement, by Burnham, has been released setting the record straight. Don't fall for the Tory press headlines.

Brexit was not a factor as local councillors have no power. What is obvious is that people are fed up with bad roads, failing schools and crap health care for he aged mostly laid at the door of Tory austerity measures and central Govt. capping council fees. Might as well vote a Tory in as they hold the whip hand and things might get better if you are inside the Tory tent.

Lord Egbut.

The Veteran said...

Milord ... that is a REALLY interesting take on the reason for the rout. Using the same logic and Labour will be able to caucus inside a telephone box following the election.

What I find quite fascinating is that the Tories have made inroads into areas previously off-limits to them in the Midlands and Scotland. You can question whether this the start of a realignment of working class (hate that word) politics or the rejection of Corbyn as a person. I tend to think it is the latter. Labour, led by someone like Dan Jarvis, would attract back lost middle ground support and, one thing for certain, both here and in the UK, elections are won from the middle ground.

Anonymous said...

Veteran....except the middle ground is being hijacked. It is becoming more like George Orwells 1984.. I advise everyone to read this and pass it around. The Observer is a well regarded and serious newspaper with a high ethical standing, nor do they print clickbait nonsense. This article would have been gone over with a fine tooth comb. Just because NZ is surrounded by sea does not mean you are immune to events taking place.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/may/07/the-great-british-brexit-robbery-hijacked-democracy

Lord Egbut

The Veteran said...

Egbut ... one could argue that the article represents the view of the pro EU liberal effete looking for a conspiracy theory to explain why the other side won. Fact is millions of working class voters said 'we want our country back'. Conspiracy vs cock-up and I tend to go with cock-up 99/100.

The issue now is not that the the UK will leave .. it's a done deal. It's on what terms.

Anonymous said...

Liberal effete.......do my my eyes deceive me.....48% of the UK liberal effete. Fuck my old brown boot. The far right fascists, despite the major hacking and far right clickbait paid for press releases have been put back in their box ..Macron vs Le Bic a one sided fight from a politically passionate people who know their history.

Consider this.......

Thersa Mays’s speech on 26 April 2016:

“We export more to Ireland than we do to China, almost twice as much to Belgium as we do to India, and nearly three times as much to Sweden as we do to Brazil. IT IS NOT REALISTIC TO THINK WE COULD JUST REPLACE EUROPEAN TRADE WITH THESE NEW MARKETS.

“If we do vote to leave the European Union, we risk bringing the development of the single market to a halt, we risk a loss of investors and businesses to remaining EU member states driven by discriminatory EU policies, and WE RISK GOING BACKWARDS WHEN IT COMES TO INTERNATIONAL TRADE.

“Outside the EU, for example, we would have no access to the European Arrest Warrant, which has allowed us to extradite more than 5,000 people from Britain to Europe in the last five years, and bring 675 suspected or convicted wanted individuals to Britain to face justice.

“IN A STAND-OFF BETWEEN BRITAIN AND THE EU, 44 PER CENT OF OUR EXPORTS IS MORE IMPORTANT TO US THAN EIGHT PER CENT OF THE EU’S EXPORTS IS TO THEM.

“The reality is that WE DO NOT KNOW ON WHAT TERMS WE WOULD WIN ACCESS TO THE SINGLE MARKET. We do know that in a negotiation we would need to MAKE CONCESSIONS IN ORDER TO ACCESS IT, and those concessions could well be about accepting EU regulations, over which we would have no say, making financial contributions, just as we do now, ACCEPTING FREE MOVEMENT RULES, just as we do now, or quite possibly all three combined.

“It is not clear why other EU member states would give Britain a better deal than they themselves enjoy.

“REMAINING INSIDE THE EUROPEAN UNION DOES MAKE US MORE SECURE, IT DOES MAKE US MORE PROSPEROUS AND IT DOES MAKE US MORE INFLUENTIAL BEYOND OUR SHORES.

“I believe the case to remain a member of the European Union is strong.

“I believe IT IS CLEARLY IN OUR NATIONAL INTEREST TO REMAIN A MEMBER OF THE EUROPEAN UNION.”

http://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2016/04/theresa-mays-speech-on-brexit-full-text.html

She in another era would have been charged with treason. Never has any country enabled a such an act of catastrophic economic self harm as the the UK, shortly to be England, is doing.

Lord Egbut


The Veteran said...

Egbut ... sorry, you've completely lost the plot on this. May guilty of treason for implementing the wish of the people expressed through the ballot box!!!! Give me strength.

She was anti Brexit. For better than Corbyn who was luke warm on the issue. Look, the people have spoken and in the words of a well regarded senior Labour politician ... 'the people are right even when they're wrong'. That is democracy and to argue otherwise and you are you are aligning yourself with arrogance personified. Those who would argue ... you've said no but you are the great unwashed and 'we' know better. The next step ... why even bother with elections ... we know better and we need to guard you from yourselves.

Fascist thought is clearly alive and well in certain quarters.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Arrogance personified. How apt!

David said...

May guilty of treason for implementing the wish of the people expressed through the ballot box!!!!

As it was non binding, May could have had the courage of her convictions and stood by her earlier comments and attempted to carry parliament with her.

Now, she is stuck with trying to negotiate multiple free trade deals to replace the one, over arching one they already had.

The next step ... why even bother with elections

Governments are elected to govern, not to bend with the changing winds, but to make beneficial decisions. The British government would be within its rights to reject Brexit.

Part of the problem with Govt in Oz is that Turnbull's policy is made by the front page of tomorrow's Australian.


Anonymous said...

Juncker is right, this is no longer about the "will of the people" it is a cat fight in the Tory party and a naked power grab putting party before state. The lies that lead to Brexit have now been exposed. Everyone is now far more informed on immigration, trade and how the EU works and on that basis almost everyone in business, commerce and opposition parties are calling for a in/out vote on the final deal.

The cracks in the UK media are now screamingly obvious. The five main papers have lost their independence and objectivity. They gave Le Pen big right ups and huge amounts of publicity prior to the French election. Now she has lost by a landslide in one of the most important EU elections for generations they cannot find room to report it on the front page. In most cases not even a breakdown of results. The only paper that has any credibilty on the subject of Brexit is the Guardian.

Want to see the drip feed of poison by the UK Tory press over the years...
http://blogs.ec.europa.eu/ECintheUK/euromyths-a-z-index/

Lor Egbut

The Veteran said...

This is getting surreal. David ... Parliament is sovereign and voted 498-144 to invoke Article 50 in accordance with the will of the people democratically expressed. For it to do anything else would have been to invite mayhem and put the democratic process at risk.

You, along with others, now clearly fall into the category of 'show me a bad loser and I'll show you a loser'.

I can accept the will of the people freely expressed even if I think they're wrong. Fascists can't. Are you a fascist?

For Egbut. Le Pen was never going to win simply because on a one-on-one vote the demographic was stacked against her and anyone who thought otherwise was kidding themselves. She represents a right/far right constituency and was never going to cut in in a race where the centre right/centre/centre left and left allied themselves in support of Macron.

Anonymous said...

Veteran...Le pen was never going to win but you would not have believed that if you read the Tory press.

You don't seem to have fully grasped the situation. The parliamentary vote was the result of a privately bought court case and was just a rubber stamping of the brexit vote because of three line whip brought in by Tory and Labour.....nothing democratic about that.

When you vote in a general election you have a parties manifesto to base your vote on. The Brexit vote was based on lies and raw emotion, no voter knew about Irelands hard border, no one knew that there would be a high divorce bill, no one knew that the cost of fresh fruit and vegetables would double on exit, no one knew about the loss of research funding to Oxford, Cambridge and other top universities, no one had ever heard of Galileo or the Copernicus project or the commitments mad by Britain, no one knew that Cornwall (a high leave vote) was kept afloat by EU subsidies because it is considered a deprived area, no one knew that on exit it will take between six and ten hours to board a car ferry to the continent. No one knew about bank passporting and that the exchequer is great danger of losing it's biggest contributor.
The whole campaign was focused on EU immigration which then got wrapped up in a Muslim package and sold to gullible public...some of whom still believe in spite of evidence to contrary.

It is people like you who blindly accept the shortcomings of the democratic process and have no interest in changing them for the better who are the danger.

When the Russian hack of Macrons emails took place two days before the election the French Parliament acted immediately in an emergency session passed a law making it a criminal offence to print or distribute them in France. If that was the UK they would still be talking about it six months. Democracy as we know it is changing and we acn either change with it or stick our heads in the sand and blather on about the will of the people.

If I hear the words "will of the people" again I swear I will throw up.

Lord Egbut

The Veteran said...

Egbut ... I'm not going to respond because there is no common ground for us to debate on. Your position is clear but so too is the fact that your side lost. You can spend time looking back in anger if you wish but that's not going to change the reality of the situation. My last word.