Tuesday, March 14, 2017

WOT GIVES ANZ?

Like many tens (hundreds?) of thousand Kiwis the Veteran and Mrs Veteran are 'investors' in Bonus Bonds hoping for that $1m monthly first prize.   Over the near half a century that Bonds Bonds have been in existence we have enjoyed some reasonable success although perhaps not as much if we had placed the money in term bank deposits or bonds.   You accept that as part of the deal.

Since since 2000 when I started keeping records up until November last year there were only three months when we didn't receive a prize.   That's 3 months out of 190.    From November 2016 to March 2107 (5 months straight) we have received zip, zero, nothing.    Based on those numbers someone better versed than I in probability distributions can no doubt come up with a precise figure on the likelihood of this occurring.   I would put it at several millions to one.   

A more likely scenario is that the ANZ owner of Bonus Bonds has rejigged (reduced) the prize list and, if they have, surely it is incumbent upon them to advise all bond holders accordingly.   One thing for sure ... apples to donuts, they won't have reduced their management fee one decimal point.   For the bank, Bonus Bonds are a money making machine but they would do well to remember that investors have choices.


11 comments:

Jobson Growth said...

Based on those numbers someone better versed than I in probability distributions can no doubt come up with a precise figure on the likelihood of this occurring. I would put it at several millions to one.


Then you know nothing about probability at all. Each draw operates under the same probability as each preceding draw. There is no connection between one draw and the next. The draw doesn't know if you won or last and adjust itself accordingly.

The odds of tossing a coin heads is 1/1. The odds of the next toss also being heads is still 1/1. You have fallen for the gambler's fallacy, the thing that makes Casinos rich.

A more likely scenario is that the ANZ owner of Bonus Bonds has rejigged (reduced) the prize list and, if they have, surely it is incumbent upon them to advise all bond holders accordingly.

Ah yes, following Adolt down the post truth rabbit hole. You don't have any evidence, you don't have any knowledge, so you make shit up and claim it to be fact.

Even if your assertion were true, you would still have the same chance of winning a prize per bond as every other bond holder.

A quick search on that new newfangled googly thing that is no doubt too hard for oldies to use turns up the following:

http://www.bonusbonds.co.nz/importantChanges.html

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/86901113/anz-has-no-plans-to-cut-bonus-bond-fees-despite-dwindling-odds-and-prize-pool

Get a 4 year old the show you how to google before your next rave.



paul scott said...

Jobless. Vet is not really suggesting a probability swerve, He is suggesting the thing has been rigged . Comprehension 101 smart arse scum bag,

Anonymous said...

I won 5 bonus bonds at a old rellies birthday about 45 years ago and have won nothing. Bastards.

Seriously, I recall a discussion about BB's with a bank guy years ago and he claimed the draw was completely random etc... which may be true but he did say that there seemed to be a pattern of newer numbers cropping up more frequently than older ones so if you didn't win swap for newer numbers. The ghost in the machine perhaps. If the ANZ has moved the goal posts that may not help but it may be useful to check what numbers win with a view to improving your chances in light of the above before storming the parapets.

3:16

The Veteran said...

Thank you jobson growth for your classy comment NOT ... like the personal abuse. Of course each draw is separate, of course the computer takes no account of what happened previous. But when what I described happens you ask yourself ... why so.

I went on to say (and you highlighted it in your post) ... "A more likely scenario is that the ANZ owner of Bonus Bonds has rejigged (reduced) the prize list and, if they have, surely it is incumbent upon them to advise all bond holders accordingly."

Your response to that ... "Ah yes, following Adolt down the post truth rabbit hole. You don't have any evidence, you don't have any knowledge, so you make shit up and claim it to be fact".

Then you shoot yourself in the foot (and head) by posting a link which sez exactly what I surmised to be the most likely scenario. So thank you for confirming that ... see, no personal abuse. Just pointing out that in your rush to denigrate you lost the plot.

Enjoy your day.



Anonymous said...

Bonus Bonds is a gambling scheme. The attraction is sold as you don't get to lose your original stake.
In gambling there are two ways to consistently make money. The best way is to provide the facility, become the 'house', don't gamble yourself, but take a cut of every game. That's the government in the first case and ANZ who have leased the house from them.
The second way is not to be the very best player as in winner-take-all type tournaments, but its to be low key, surround yourself with many losers, encourage them to do it consistently by recounting the great moves they made when the suckers actually do fluke a pot.
That's the joyous winners scenes. The lumpen proleteriat losers look on in hope and keep their ante in for the next round.
Bonus Bonds is a combination of the two strategies.
A third way is to change the house rules when a player wins consistently.
Like 3:16 I owned a BB from it's first issue, [1973?] and forgot about it until it fell out of a photo album. The unclaimed prizelist was scanned, turns out my $2 had got me $37.
Alas, it vaporized, the kind folks at ANZ informed me I have to have a minimum of $20 invested to be eligible. I get shafted by them on bank charges for that amount any month anyway. I'm not bitter.

Mick

Noel said...

I remember when it customary for parents to buy their children a 10 dollar bonus bond to encourage savings.
I talked about probabilities with the local maths teacher where I was the PTA President.
Came away believing the only way to make it work was to have big lot of sequential numbers to increase the odds. 10 dollars didn't cut it.
A bit like taking tickets in the local club 2 dollar meat raffle. Better to buy 10 dollars worth than a single ticket every time.

Of course the down side is when more players are added

And that's what happened with Bonus Bonds. I don't have the figures but it wouldn't surprise me given the investment returns elsewhere over the last decade many more numbers have entered the Bonus Bond gamble severely affecting the spread of payouts.

Rejigging of the prize list. Not allowed in the operating rules they inherited.

Noel said...

The Trust
Deed requires us to manage the prize pool so that your
chances of winning a prize are no better than 1 in 9,600.

Noel said...

Sorry forgot to add
bonusbonds.co.nz/pdfs/prospectus.pdf

The Veteran said...

Noel ... thank you but the no rejigging comment seems to fly in the face of the Stuff articles reference to a reducing prize pool.

Anonymous said...

Heh you could send some of your monthly prizes our way. I bought $50.00 worth in 2001 and haven't won 1 cent.

Having said that $50 isn't a big investment but hasn't given me any confidence to invest any more.

Jimmie

Anonymous said...

I question the probability issue as raised here. The chances of winning are pinioned on the number of bonds owned at the date of each draw. In the instances cited the number of bonds held appears to be assumed as constant. I know people (myself included) who buy a further bond(s) each time they have a success in a draw (albeit modest.) I originally bought $4000 worth in about 1988, and currently have about 13,000 bonds. My rate of return averaged out over the years is about $25 per week. How this compares with fixed interest is unknown to me and I don't really care as it has always been a diversion rather than a serious investment.

Cadwallader