Tuesday, January 24, 2017


Naah, nothing to do with climate change but rather a break from all thing Trump.    The Mt Albert by-election is going to be a real tester for the Labour-Greens marriage of convenience.    Ardern and Genter going head to head.   Both personable in their own way and both astute debaters although Ardern has 'distinguished' herself in parliament through her inability to land any serious hits on the Ministers she is shadowing.  

Mt Albert is working class (however you want to define that). Neither National and NZ First are contesting the by-election.   Both Labour and the Greens will be able to throw their entire Auckland resources into the fight.   From where I sit it seems to me that the Green activist base is more passionate and committed than Labour.  They will campaign on being the 'real deal' rather then a Party that has moved away from its working class roots.  I think too the ability of ex-mayoral candidate Chloe Swarbrick and now aspiring Green MP to motivate the youth vote could well have an impact on the election result. 

And what about the centre-right vote?    I suspect NZ First voters, being somewhat unsophisticated souls, will look for an indication from on high as to what they should do.   I suspect they will be left wanting.   On the other hand National voters might seize the opportunity to create a little electoral mischief.  

If the vote is anywhere near close or if the Greens were to take the seat then the Labour Greens pact, already under strain because of the inability of Labour to make in real headway in the polls, could rupture.    This would not necessarily be a good thing for the centre-right as it could open up the door for Winston to do a deal with Labour leaving the Greens on the sidelines with nowhere to go.  

Whatever,  I do enjoy blood-sports.

One final point.   I do regard David Shearer as an inherently decent man who deserved better than what he got from a disloyal caucus.     


Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Isn't it ironic that so many of Auckland's 'working class' now live in houses worth over $1.5 million?

They've never had it so good. (With apologies to Gough Whitlam.)

Paulus said...

It looks though Union Labour are taking Mt Albert as done deal.
Foolish sentiments as Greenpeace can throw a lot of muscle into this bye election.
Should National voters, if they wish, they can destroy Little by voting Greens at least until the until the election.

pdm said...

Paulus - the way I have seen some of the Greenpeace supporters soliciting donations in various places they may equally be a disincentive in getting Green votes. Rude, arrogant and unlikeable were the last lot I saw in Hastings and no doubt once freed from harassing Fonterra they will rally to the cause from all over the country as none of them appear to work..

The Veteran said...

pdm ... erstwhile Labour voters probably can't tell the difference.

Anonymous said...

She who can eat an apple thru a tennis racquet will breeze in. There is no appreciable centre-right bloc there or the Nats would've contested it.

Drive thru Mt Albert during the day you'd be forgiven for thinking you were in Afghanistan. Bearded Muzzies with Taqiyah and the wimmin in black burqa. Head across to Dominion Road in Mt Eden and you'd think you'd teleported to China.

The Veteran said...

Anon 8.08 ... sorry to rain on your parade but Nation al won the Party vote there in 2014. As for your assessment of how the electorate looks ... on that basis the Greens should be a shoe-in.