Thursday, November 3, 2016


Less than a week out from election day and the lag effect of the fallout from HRC's email scandal (which may or may not be) is showing through in yesterday's poll numbers.

First with which has Clinton at a 68.8% chance of victory ... that's, down from 85% when the story first broke.   Next the Real Clear Politics (RCP) poll numbers ....

IBD/TIPP Tracking ... statistical tie
LA Times/USC Tracking ... Trump +6
ABC/Washington Post Tracking ... statistical tie
Rasmusson Reports ... statistical tie
Economist/YouGov ... Clinton +3

I think 538 more accurately reflects reality.   It incorporates the Electoral College vote which decides the election while RCP reflects the popular vote. 

Two further points ... if Julian Assange is to be believed there is going to be a further dump of  Clinton e-mails by Wikileaks.  Second, my understanding is that by election day upwards of half of those going to vote will have already exercised that right.   How that plays out is a moot.  

Still think crooked Hillary will win.


Adolf Fiinkensein said...

It's about time they canned their ridiculously long early voting window.

Anonymous said...

Given that the Ecuadorian Embassy cut off Master Julians internet on the basis that old emails might influence the election outcome, do you not think that that Ecuador should actually supervise US elections as a fair and disinterested party?

Lord Egbut

Anonymous said...

The radio was bleating on about some bloke in the US who has correctly predicted every election since he started doing so and he says Trump. Awful he may be but at least he's not part of the political elite so he's better. Swallow and pray while the US returns to its core values of old - I hope.


Adolf Fiinkensein said...

It seems strange that people talk glibly about Obama pardoning Hillary.

What for? She hasn't been charged or convicted of anything.

Is he going to pardon her for any crime she might commit in the future?

David said...

Adolf, "people" are not talking "glibly" about pardoning Clinton.

Only you and the right wing fever swamps are talking about this. There is no evidence, but since when has the right ever wanted evidence before it stirs up FUD? The GOP is a policy free zone, it's backers have nothing to support, so all the can resort to is fear.

These rumours and rumours of rumours are in the same category as Fuckface Von Clownstick claiming the election is "rigged"; but only if he loses, of course.

Fairfacts Media said...

I remember going to bed around 11pm on June 23 UK time.
Even Nigel Farage had effectively conceded about the EU Referendum result.
But a few hours later, it was all different.
And by 4am the leave campaign was home and dry.
I guess we won't really know until Wednesday.
Let's hope Trump wins and Clinton fails.
It ain't over until the fat lady sings be it Hillary Clinton or that tart that Donald Trump was accused of being fat.