Thursday, October 27, 2016

IS IT ALL OVER BAR THE SHOUTING?

If you go by the RCP polls the US Presidential election is all over bar the shouting.   They show Clinton leading in all but one poll with a margin of between one and fourteen points.   The one poll to go against the trend is the LA Times/USC Tracking Poll which has it for Trump at plus one.

My one word of caution.   I have to wonder if the huge barrage of negative publicity about Trump has resulted in Trump supporters being reluctant to declare themselves as such leading to an under-reporting of his actual strength ... that in the privacy of the ballot booth people will vote from their anti-Washington establishment heart rather than their head.   A long shot but a shot nevertheless.   

The website to monitor now and on election day fivethirtyeight.com ... hat-tip to the US Ambassador for that.

   

1 comment:

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

For a moment I thought the headline read:-

"Is It All Over Bar The Shooting?"

Sadly, this election,nothing would surprise me.