Monday, July 25, 2016

TREVOR MALLARD WAVES THE WHITE FLAG

With his announced decision that he will be walking away from his Hutt South seat to stand as a List only candidate  in the 2017 election.    In doing so he has anointed himself to be Speaker in the event that pigs fly.

One suspects he is reading the tea leaves.   Hutt South has become 'gentrified'.    Once fortress Labour their majority has been steadily whittled away to the point where Mallard won the seat last time round by just over 700 votes while, in the Party vote, National creamed Labour by almost 7,000 votes.

Mallard has acknowledged National's Chris Bishop as an effective campaigner who has an established profile in the electorate and an office deep in the Labour Party heartland of Wainuiomata.      It is common wisdom that a good electorate MP (and Mallard is a good electorate MP) can attract a personal following of about 5%.   Without those votes Bishop would have probably won last time round.   Now they're up for grabs,   This seat will be one to watch on election night.

As for Party rejuvenation ... go figure.


1 comment:

gravedodger said...

Good summary Vet I have one wee correction, Mallard "was once" a good electorate MP, lately it is just too much work and he has some 'new' interests.

Local lad Chris Bishop opening an electorate office in the last little bit of Trev the Muss' fiefdom over the hill maybe allowed the message to filter through.

Don't know about his "List" hopes though with His Little master plus the next Media Party nomination for saviour suggesting on current polling to make a winnable position rather problematical.

Of course any talk of Angry standing against Bishop could only raise Chris Bishop's hope more if it was perennial and many times greater success as a National vote achiever Moroney who stepped up.

Little has only increased Young's numbers in New Plymouth (Andy's home town) twice from marginal 709 to a solid 10 times, 7000 plus. Moroney has assisted National candidates I think seven times in various Waikato seats.