Tuesday, July 26, 2016

SO FAR IT'S DEMOCRATS 1 VS REPUBLICANS NIL

I thought the sight and sound of Ted Cruz being booed off the stage at the Republican Convention last week would be hard to beat but I was wrong.

But watching 2,000 Bernie Sanders supporters march through downtown Philadelphia on the way to the 'Philly' Convention Centre where the Democrats are meeting and all the while chanting "Jail Hillary" and clearly I was wrong  ....  you expect bruised egos from the losers in any sort of race, political or otherwise, but the underlying nastiness evident at both political conventions is evidence yet again of a paradigm shift in US politics.

I still think Hillary will be hard to beat but the CNN Poll released a few hours ago which shows Trump leading Clinton by 3 percentage points (48% to 45%) will be a considerable boost to the Trump camp.  


18 comments:

Alan Hancox said...

Trump will bolt in, you are way off the mark as are most of your posts.

The Veteran said...

Alan ... pray tell where I am 'off the mark' .... interested. Thought the post was balanced in acknowledging a potential paradigm shift which could result in a Trump win but, to suggest he will win in a landslide, and clearly you need to check with your supplier to ensure he's not lacing the weed with something more potent.

Redbaiter said...

"where I am 'off the mark' .... interested."

You're off the mark because your posts frequently show a heavy mainstream media influence. When anyone with a brain knows they are full of utter bullshit.

In this case, the statement that Cruz was "booed off stage".

This was a media phrase we saw everywhere after Cruz's speech, but in fact he finished his speech and left as per normal.

It is a lie.

Only the brain dead bother which such sources as the NYT, the Washington Post, the NZ Herald and Fairfax media. As for broadcast media, #DNCLeaks shows what we have always said about them was perfectly true, in that they're not news and opinion at all but dedicated propaganda operations for the Democrat Party.

Just trying to help.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Bula

538 now has Trump at 56% odds on to win the electoral college.

The Veteran said...

Red ... I heard what I heard. I saw what I saw. Media spin bullshit ... next you'll be telling me that the Sanders supporters I saw waiving placards reading 'Jail Hillary' is just media spin too ... but you won't because that doesn't suit your narrative.

You can't cherry pick ... you can't label everyone who doesn't sing from your crumpled song-sheet 'progressive' or 'communist'. Just makes you look stupid but go2it if that's what you want.

For Adolf ... how goes the FB? 30 degrees today I see.

Alan Hancox said...

There is an unseen vote for Trump, about 8%. The polls are mainly from left leaning outfits and are about 4% askew in Democrats favour. If you look at the main pollsters the breakdown is always at least 5% more Democrats polled than Republicans with the possible exception of Fox news.

The Veteran said...

Alan H ... OK, I get it. My suggesting that Trump 'could win' as opposed to your 'Trump will bolt in' constitutes being way off the mark ... interesting interpretation..

Am interested in your claimed 8% bias against Trump. The Pew Centre has undertaken serious qualitative research into the US political demographic. Their findings (2014) ... 39% of Americans self classify themselves as Independents; 32% as Democrats and just 23% as Republicans. When the partisan leanings of the so called Independents are taken into account 48% either identify as Democrats or lean Democrat while 39% are Republicans or lean Republican. This means that Republicans will always start from behind the eight ball.

Democrats hold advantages in voter identification among blacks, Asians, Hispanics, the well-educated and Millennials. Republicans have leads among whites - particularly white males, those with less education, evangelical Protestants and the Silent Generation (those born in the mid 1020s through to the early 1940s).

If Trump is to win there will have to be a paradigm shift in the political landscape. There are signs this could be happening with factions in both Parties showing a considerable aversion to 'Washington Business as Usual' and Trump certainly ain't Washington Business as Usual. This is balanced by doubts about the personal qualities of both candidates. The inbuilt advantage that the Democrats enjoy may be enough to see Hillary through but I certainly wouldn't bet the house on it. Neither would I be so bold as to predict a landslide win for either candidate.

Anonymous said...

When media polls state the race is close, too close to call except within a few percentage points within the margin of error, it usually means their favoured party is losing.

Mick

Alan Hancox said...

My statement that Trump will bolt in stands, The points you made about party affiliation are dubious to say the least. Sure the minorities support the Democrats, but the latest figure I have seen about the direction of the country, show a 68% unfavourable rating. Clinton is tied into that and the Obama administration having been part of it. With all the the controversy surrounding the Clintons, this is the year of the outsider. Independents are particularly unimpressed with the corrupt Clinton empire and will either vote for Trump or stay home.

The Veteran said...

Alan H ... my take is rather more dispassionate than yours given that I wouldn't vote for either Clinton or Trump were I able to. I think America deserves better than that. Dismiss the data about Party affiliation if you like but to me they make a good starting point. But lets look at some real polling data and not just your unreferenced figures. Most observers of the US political scene place considerable store on the Real Clear Politics (RCP) figures which averages the results of all major polls.

Their latest (24 July) figures have Clinton's unfavorable rating at 55% (38% favorable) vs Trump at 57% (36% favorable). RCP does not poll on the direction of the country although Pew does with their data (24 June) showing 71% unfavorable vs 24% favorable ... that is in line with your figure of 68% and yes, some of that negativity will rub of on the Obama Administration (and Clinton). That data needs to be balanced against that of RCP which measures Congressional approval. You will know that the Republicans control both the Senate and the House. Their latest data (again 24 Jul) shows 23.1% think Congress is moving in the right direction vs 68.9% wrong track ... very close to the Pew data.

All in all I think the Clinton vs Trump unfavorability ratings just about cancel each other out. Clinton is clearly Washington establishment, Trump is not. That's advantage Trump. Trump received a post convention polls bounce; I would expect Clinton to get the same ... question will be by how much.

I think the jury is still out as to whether there has been a real paradigm shift in the US political scene. There are some signs that this could be happening in which case Trump could be in with a real chance. If not Clinton should win in a close contest with the Party affiliation data which you were quick to dismiss a likely deciding factor.

Redbaiter said...

"Red ... I heard what I heard. I saw what I saw."

Well, then I'm even more baffled by your writing because if you actually saw it is quite clear Cruz got to the end of his scripted speech and did not have to quit and leave the stage.

So apparently Vet there is some kind of disconnect between your brain and your eyes.

Furthermore Cruz was receiving considerable applause until the Trump camp sent their operators to move through the crowd and urge them to boo Cruz.

Isn't the true purpose of blogs to counter the lies and corruption of the MSM?

Why run a blog if you're just going to repeat MSM BS and not bring truth.

Alan Hancox said...

That's it, the MSM is overwhelmingly left even in this country. In the U.s, the only large media outfit that has claims is to the right, is Fox. Then again it is mainly establishment with the likes of George Will and and others. Redbaiter you are spot on.

The Veteran said...

Red ... who said that Cruz quit the stage without getting to the end of his scripted speech? I certainly didn't. I said Cruz was booed off the stage i.e. on leaving the stage he was booed ... saw it on Fox so it must have happened. Gueez, read what you just posted about Trump 'operatives working the crowd to have them boo Cruz and reflect.

Anyway, clearly you've a Friend in Alan H although, if I recall correctly, you don't particularly like Trump either.

Noel said...

"As the arena began to buzz, Cruz delivered two fateful lines. First: “And to those listening, please, don’t stay home in November.” The audience erupted with applause, clearly expecting an endorsement of Trump. Instead, Cruz then added: “Stand, and speak, and vote your conscience, vote for candidates up and down the ticket who you trust to defend our freedom and to be faithful to the Constitution.” Sections of the crowd began to boo loudly: “Vote your conscience” was the rallying cry of the anti-Trump mutiny that tried and failed to re-write the GOP’s rules and oust him as the party’s nominee. Cruz’s words, intentionally or not, seemed to salute those rebels — and Trump’s supporters inside the convention hall weren’t having it. As delegates voiced their disapproval of Cruz, the booing was led by the enormous New York delegation, which sits front-and-center in the arena due to Trump’s native-son status. Visibly shaken by the protests, Cruz tried to put out the fire. “I appreciate the enthusiasm of the New York delegation,” he said, forcing a smile. But things only got worse. Cruz had just four short paragraphs left in his speech — words that paid homage to his mother and father, and to a slain Dallas police officer. But they were difficult to hear. Chaos had broken out on the convention floor: The booing grew louder and nastier, and in response, pockets of Cruz loyalists began shouting back at the antagonists.

Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/438145/ted-cruz-booed-stage-Cleveland"

Redbaiter said...

"I said Cruz was booed off the stage i.e. on leaving the stage he was booed "


"Booed off stage" traditionally means a performer or speaker who was forced to leave the stage by boos. IOWs, the boos caused him to leave the stage.

This is not of course what happened. Although it is what the mainstream media wanted the voters to believe happened. They wanted to paint Cruz in the worst possible light as usual.

It always disappoints me to see you indulge in what is essentially progressive style word twisting Vet. Let's agree you're not willfully doing that and your mistake is just down to a poor knowledge of English. OK?

As for Trump, his positive attributes are that he opposes illegal immigration and that the mainstream media dislike him, and I support him on those two things.

There is much about him I do not like, but I think we can agree there's no choice really between Trump and the gun grabbing anti-American lying pathological criminal Clinton. Well, not much anyway.

The Veteran said...

Red ... on the booing and we can agree to disagree. From where I sit Noel has it about right.

But I think we can agree that Trump and Clinton are both 'damaged goods' and that the American people deserve something better. In that respect democracy and especially American democracy has much to answer for.

Noel said...

Given that all who post here are not US citizens in the end there's nothing we can do to influence the vote. But there is a good lesson for our future.

Australia has said it will not hold another referendum for a Republic whilst the Queen is alive. I'm guessing NZ has the same stance.

In the Australian 1999 referendum the big turn off was the President been decided by the politicians.

Now we know the US paradigm isn't that flash either.

Gives us time to devise better alternatives.



Alan Hancox said...

Latest L.A Times poll, Trump 47%, Clinton 40%.Of course these polls do not matter really, the one that counts is November 8.