Wednesday, June 15, 2016

BREXIT, HARD TO GET A FIX IN MUDDY WATERS.


As the UK moves into the end game of the great debate on remaining in the European Union, it is increasingly clouded which way the referendum will lurch.

The last general election left polling in chaos when a predicted close win for the Conservatives became a landslide that left UK Labour with one seat in Scotland and almost wiped out the old Liberal Party now on life support.

What are the polls saying about Brexit, well take your pick.
Where do the parties stand on Brexit, again take a wild guess.
David Cameron has his future on the line as his support for remain is in stark contrast to the 'leave' led by Boris Johnson who many claim as the next Conservative leader.
Yesterday I  caught the end of a Beeb interview with Michael Hesletine whose wholesale support for the Cameron bloc was palpable.
The same Michael Heseltine whose opposition to what more and more see as Margaret Thatcher's very necessary restructuring of the UK economy that had seen the once basket case economy of Wilson and Callaghan emerge in a strength that sustained Major,  Blair and now Cameron. Now The Lord Heseltine who was wet enough to remain under water and still talk revealed what more and more are seeing as blind panic from Number Ten as polling indicates trends to UK departing from what has become a seriously dysfunctional Mainland Europe. Heseltine was also the trigger for the political demise of Thatcher but after seeing her off lost out to John Major.

The latest challenge in the form of a massive and potentially revolt threatening Islamic invasion that has Merkell, Hollande, in fact  most leaders  of old Europe countries with increasingly diluted national structures in full retreat.   Gra
When formed with West Germany, France, Belgium, The Netherlands, Luxemburg and Italy only Italy  was not regarded as a strong economy due in the main to its revolving door political system. With the add-ons  including Portugal, Spain and Greece  that with Italy became derisively known as the PIGS things started to go south in many ways.

In the beginning The Six were to be a bulwark to oppose the threat of Communism where The Soviet union had created its own commercially integrated Warsaw Pact except that politically the countries behind Churchill's aptly described "Iron Curtain", were entirely subservient to the Soviets. The Six on the other hand were mainly only a trading bloc of independent and successful nations
Then the UK joined along with Denmark and Ireland and full economic integration along with a devolution of national political abilities grew and paved the way for the nightmarish bureaucratic monster that resides in Brussels today, A very special chaos that has abdicated much of what made Europe once great,  now a mere shadow.

In the mid nineteenth century Napoleon almost achieved a European union single handed with his military conquest of some key states and amalgamation of almost all others under threat. That major success unravelled when "General Winter" sided with Prussia and Great Britain to enable The Tsar to turn The Little general back from the gates of Moscow. Nearly a century later an Austrian corporal almost achieved what Napoleon had failed to do but again Russia prevailed and buried the thousand year Reich this time in the streets of Volgograd that had become Stalingrad to the glory of the Soviet leader "Uncle Joe" Stalin.

Had the enlarged European Economic Union been content with sovereign nations enjoying independence, free trade and a shared monetary system, the confusion that threatens in 2016 might never have happened, however left leaning socialist thinking that works from the infallibility of we know best, the monolith created is now seriously threatened.

Whatever the UK decides in a few days time, France and Italy are also seeing a groundswell of popular resentment that existed before the Islamic invasion but has been brought into focus by the hoards of mainly young men from the Middle East and North Africa seeking the comforts of the socialist utopia, are also undergoing beginnings  of devolution.
The UK is lucky it has the Channel as a Moat but it aint half as good as ours with twelve hundred miles of the Tasman in contrast to England's Twelve miles of channel.

One of the great ironies of this whole debacle has the socialists and centrists largely supporting stay while  the more conservative right wants out.
Meanwhile here on the reservation the TPP that has the support of conservatives and centrists is under serious threat from the socialists and communists with good ole Jane Kelsey in the fore front.
No wonder confusion is rampant.

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

"One of the great ironies of this whole debacle has the socialists and centrists largely supporting stay while the more conservative right wants out."

That's the sort of over simplification that you get when your sole source of info is the internet. That statement may suit your political outlook but is utterly untrue.

The British public are suddenly becoming aware of the ramifications of trying to split a 40 year partnership without huge economic upheaval. Those nice socialist people at Rolls Royce, which accounts for £1 in every fifty of exports, have announced that if Brexit they will move all new development, research and future investment to France. They are inextricably tied up with Airbus and Eurofighter and the common language used by all employees is English.

The fragile peace in Nth Ireland will be fractured if Southern Ireland is required by the EU to introduce border controls along one of the most porous borders in the world.

Cross channel traffic forty years ago was a tenth of what it is today and if the French decide, as their right, to spend 20 minutes inspecting every tenth truck it would take about a month before the M60 out of Dover is three lane car park half way to London.

Buy the time the UK negotiated separate trade deals with 28 countries markets would be lost. What you are seeing is democracy at it's worst where uninformed and uneducated people are voting out of emotion rather than knowledge and will probably see the breakup of the UK as Scotland would definitely leave and join the EU.

And I can also say I have yet to meet a Frenchman who wants out, well apart from the nice old lady who runs a small bar and insists on calling the Euro a Franc.

Lord Egbut Nobacon






The Veteran said...

GD ... I'm not sure that your statement "One of the great ironies of this whole debacle has the socialists and centrists largely supporting stay while the more conservative right wants out" ... is correct. You may be right about the Lib Dems but I think if the vote is for Brexit it will be largely due to the fracturing of both the right (Conservative) vote and the left (Labour) vote with the latter being crucial to the outcome.

I don't think too many saw that happening with Labour but clearly the 'little England' cry and the issues around immigration has resonated with Labour rank and file hence the decision by Cameron to back off a tad and leave the field open for Corbyn and a supporting cast of Labour heavies and Union leaders to make a last minute pitch to win the Labour waivers back into the Stay camp.

Simply fascinating.

Anonymous said...

Veteran..you seem to see everything through political eyes. There are no "rank and file" no whipping anyone into line, no whips in sight as this is apolitical and a conscience vote. Any call from a party leader to vote for the good of the party would be met by derision.
In fact the political establishment is held in such low esteem any one telling people how to vote would be counter productive.

Lord Egbut, a Waiver but not a Waverer.

Angry Tory said...

NOPE

Even the Guardian admits the UK will leave - the polls have been consistent all this month with leave now well in the lead. http://whatukthinks.org/eu/

The fact is that in a week from today, the UK will be Independent, Boris Johnson will be PM, and Michael Gove Chancellor. The Tory party will be united behind its new leadership, while Labour will have been smashed to a Corbynista Communist rump with patriotic Labour voters now basically all voting UKIP.

With any luck, the Euro-mess will fall apart, and with TRUMP in the White House, even NZ might have a chance of returning to democracy.

Anonymous said...

Simple fix for simple folk....AT never disappoints.

Lord Egbut

The Veteran said...

Egbut ... sorry to rain on your parade but this is exactly what Corbyn is doing ... read the news.

The Veteran said...

AT ... whatever the result it's going to be long time for the Tory Party to unite and whether Boris is the person to unite them is a moot point. Entertaining yes ... uniting??????

Trump in the White House ... at 12 points behind Shillary on the last poll he certainly has it all in front of him. 77% negative rating among females not overly helpful either.

For Brexit a week in politics is a long time. As for Trump vs Clinton ... 5 months is even longer.

Anonymous said...

Veteran....he is laying out his case for remain to the British public....not appealing along party lines there have been no orders or sanctions to local party offices to vote in an particular way. All the political parties are split as is the country so people are voting without any party affiliation.

If only general elections were run like this as opposed to an adversarial team sport...my side is right even when they are wrong.

Lord Egbut Nobacon