Monday, March 28, 2016

THE RACE TO THE WHITE HOUSE

One suspects Republicans experience the same feelings of shock horror that Labour does when it looks at the polls.

Real Clear Politics averages five national polls (Fox News/ Bloomberg/Quinnipaic/CNN-ORC/USA Today-Suffock) to assess the relative strengths of the Presidential contenders.  It measures each of the three Republican candidates (Trump, Cruz and Kasich) against the two Democrat contenders (Clinton and Sanders).

This is how it panned out as at 22 March ....

Trump vs Clinton - Clinton by 11.5 points.   None of the polls picked Trump.

Trump vs Sanders - Sanders by 17.5 points.  None of the polls picked Trump.

Cruz vs Clinton - Clinton by 2.9 points.   Three polls picked Clinton, one went for Cruz and there was one tied.

Cruz vs Sanders - Sanders by 8.4 points.   None of the polls picked Cruz.

Kasich vs Clinton - Kasich by 6.5 points.   None of the polls picked Clinton.

Kasich vs Sanders - Sanders by 1 point.   Three polls picked Sanders while two went for Kasich.

Of particular interest to me is that back on 4 December both Trump and Clinton were in a virtual tie.   By 1 March Clinton had opened up a 3 point lead but since then it's been all downhill for Trump who now sits at 38.8% to Clinton's 50.3%.

My conclusions.

The Republican Party at war with itself is starting to hurt both Trump and Cruz.

If it's Trump vs Clinton then it's 'no contest' (forget about Hillary being indicted ... not going to happen anytime soon).

Clinton is vulnerable to both Cruz and Kasich and particularly Kasich.

Sanders won't be his Party nominee but, if he were, he would be President.

Not rocket science and, as I said in an earlier post, fascinating the changing dynamic.   Of course a week in politics is a long time and both Trump and Clinton are weak.


5 comments:

Angry Tory said...

The idea the True Americans would accept Clinton as President is crazy.

Real Americans want TRUMP and will accept nothing less.

Anonymous said...

Real good old downtown, homely, salt of the earth Americans. who own an assault rifle but not a passport.

But you are to dim to realise that you are one of the foreigners he will crap upon if there was a political advantage.....you are so enthralled that you really believe you are one of them because you drive a pickup truck with a gun rack in the window.

A couple of years after our contribution and battle casualties in Vietnam the republican admin shat on us because we decided democratically that nukse were not a good idea. Friends indeed. The Brits weren't over the moon about it either but they didn't hang us out to dry like the US.

Andrei said...

I wonder what a "True American" is?

And I wonder how Angry Tory knows what "Real Americans" want?

The Veteran said...

AT ... the idea that 'true New Zealanders' (however defined) would accept Little as PM is crazy but it could happen. There's a name for it ... democracy. Same for the good ole US of A.

Angry Tory said...

The "good ole US of A" is supposed to be a Republic, not a Democracy.