Friday, March 18, 2016

ON TRUMP

The Trump phenomenon continues and there is no doubt his candidature is creating (big) waves among the Republican Party establishment.    All the talk right now is directed towards a 'brokered' Convention assuming Trump falls short of the 50% plus 1 delegate needed to clinch the nomination.

That has still to play out but from where I sit I think it would be risky politics to deny Trump his due if he were only a handful of delegates short with his nearest challenger some 300-400 delegates behind that (although it's not helpful for Trump to be musing on the possibility of riot were this to happen).  Nevertheless, 'thems the rules' and there have been brokered Conventions before with perhaps the most notable one being in 1932 when FDR became the Democratic Party nominee.

Not sure all the loose talk about a Trump victory leading to disaffected Republicans coalescing around a third party candidate will come to anything.   The simple reality is that such a move would guarantee Clinton the Presidency and, with that in mind, I'm not sure when push comes to shove too many Republicans will be prepared to take that step.   What you might well see is establishment Republicans sitting out the election.

The flip side of that argument is that Trump has managed to pull together an eclectic grouping of previously independent voters, 'Blue Dog' Democrat voters and hitherto non-voters bound together by common cause that Washington is broke and that the answer doesn't lie in business as usual.   The turnout in the Republican contests is impressive and far ahead of that of the Democrats.

If Trump is the candidate I see two possible outcomes.   He wins or he loses (acknowledgement to trite).     He could win building on the Washington is broke and needs fixing argument allied with the widespread mistrust of Clinton (the latest ABC poll has her level of trust among Democrat voters at just 36%) but he could just as easily loose in Goldwater proportions where at the 1964 election the Republicans were trashed winning just six States and 52 electoral votes to the Democrats 486 votes.

Interesting times. 

13 comments:

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Interesting times indeed.

I see John Hinderacker at Powerline now conceding Trump could beat Hillary.

I'd vote for Trump on account of him being the lesser of two evils.

The Veteran said...

Adolf ... I would like to think that with all the checks and balances in place I should feel secure with Trump's finger on the nuclear trigger ... well, I'm not. And some of the comments from Trump supporters on this and other blogs only serve to reinforce my concerns.

Noel said...

"I'd vote for Trump on account of him being the lesser of two evils."

For months NZ media has been trumpeting (pun intended) that Kiwis should be interested because of the position America holds in world politics.

Bloody funny really when you consider Joe Kiwi has no way to influence the outcome.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Maybe with Trump's finger on the trigger some of the world's bad guys might think twice before embarking on their adventures.

If he scares you, I hope he scares the shit out of them.

Anonymous said...

If Trump is the candidate I see two possible outcomes.

TRUMP™ will be the candidate, and TRUMP™ will wipe the floor with Hitlery, then jail her for treason.

Maybe with Trump's finger on the trigger some of the world's bad guys might think twice before embarking on their adventures.

Trump isn't going to just "rest his finger" on the button, he's going to push it good & hard! Like he said: “What good does it do to have a good nuclear triad if you’re afraid to use it?”.

Hopefully he'll hit Iran first, but who knows, maybe China, maybe Mexico, maybe France? Hell of a lot easier to make good trade deals once the last country that said "No" to Trump on the TPPA is a glowing radioactive ruin!

I can't wait. I just can't wait.

Anonymous said...

Veteran: How on earth do you keep a straight face when you read these loony tunes.

Lord Egbut

The Veteran said...

Egbut ... Anon's 11.15 PM comment above kinda proves my point doesn't it. Probably from some 18 YO pimply face 'yoof' who thinks war and killing is cool ... until faced with the reality when he would run back to his Mum and cry.

I am reminded about a decorated Maori veteran you and I both know. A rough, tough, gentle giant of a man, not overly articulate. A few years ago I was involved in the shooting of the 'Victor 3 Patrol' documentary when we bought together the surviving members of that patrol to tell their story. We filmed them both collectively and individually. The 15 minutes one on one with 'W' had the producer and film crew in tears. To paraphrase ... 'before I went to war I enjoyed hunting and fishing and especially eeling. When I came home I realized I could never again kill a living thing and I never have' ... that's incredibly powerful stuff from someone put his life on the line as our 'tunnel rat'.

That is why I read and weep at those sort of comments.

Andrei said...

Maybe with Trump's finger on the trigger some of the world's bad guys might think twice before embarking on their adventures.

I wasn't aware Adolf that the USA had been chosen by God to determine who the bad guys are.

But by definition the USA are the "good guys"?

Watch and learn something Adolf

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OGlUoTCsWMQ

Ghost Of Greenwood said...

It took Bush, Obama, Hillary Clinton, Cameron and Sarkozy to blow up the Middle East. Trump, to his credit, says the days of military interventionism and Wilsonian internationalism are over, the USA can no longer afford it and countries that rely on the USA for defense need to start coughing up their share of the cost.

Sounds reasonable.

Anonymous said...

until faced with the reality when he would run back to his Mum and cry.

Nobody's talking about sending anyone to fight on the ground. We're talking about the USN and USAF vaporising cities and countries. Big big difference.


Oh and the GOP is finally getting with the program: turns out - just like Obama - Hitlery is constitutional unable to serve as president.

The Veteran said...

Anon ... you can't be a person. Have to be a Bot with the wiring short-circuited. You must be to seriously talk about Trump vaporising Beijing, Mexico City and Paris.

Newsflash ... China and France have the 'bomb' too ... duh.

Please consult your friendly electrician.

Anonymous said...

Newsflash ... China and France have the 'bomb' too ... duh.

Not very many. Maybe they'd fire if we hit Paris or Beijing, but Lyon or Marseille or Chengdu or Chongqing - who would miss 'em?
If they try to fire back, then we hit the flash places. Sure would Make America Great Again!

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Vet

It might be time to incinerate anonymous commenters.