Tuesday, February 23, 2016

THE RACE TO THE PRESIDENCY

It's hotting up in the race to the Presidency and from where I sit right now the most likely scenario come November is Trump vs Clinton.

In the 'Blue' corner its all over bar the shouting and while Sanders has managed to energize a whole new constituency the reality is that the cards are heavily stacked against him. About one-sixth of the delegates to the nominating convention are designated 'super-delegates'.   They are unpledged and free to vote as they think fit and comprise 20 distinguished Party leaders (Past Presidents/Vice-Presidents/Party Chairmen); 20 Democrat Governors; 46 Democrat Senators; 193 Democrat Members of the House of Representatives and 426 elected members of the Democrat National Committee.

As it stands right now Clinton has 439 super-delegates and Sanders just 16.   Add in the pledged delegates and remembering the Democrats allocate delegates using proportional representation (as opposed to the Republicans where the winner takes all) and Clinton has 502 delegates to Sanders 70.   It is difficult to see how Sanders can possibly amass the 2,382 delegates needed to nominate.   The question then arises as to what happens with the Sanders constituency.   Some will hold their noses and vote for Clinton but, given that recent polls have it that only one-third of American voters rate her as honest and trustworthy, some will quietly (or not so quietly) pack their tent and exit the election.

In the Red corner the Trump machine rolls on.   Right now he has 70 delegates of the 1,236 required to nominate followed by Cruz with 11 and Rubio 10.   In reality it's down to three possibly four candidates.  In certain respects the race mirrors that of the Democrats.   Non establishment Republicans (Trump and Cruz) vs establishment Republicans (Rubio and Ohio Governor Kasich). My gut feeling is that Cruz has peaked and some well publicised electoral gaffes by his team will see his campaign stall leaving Trump as the anti-establishment figurehead.     It will be interesting to see where the 10% +/- Republicans supporting Jeb Bush end up. One would expect they will, in the main, go for an establishment candidate.     But, given that the two anti-establishment candidates have a combined vote of between 55-65% it is difficult to see Trump headed off.

The one 'nigger' in the woodpile for Trump is the continued debate over whether he is a Conservative to the true-believer Tea-Party rump of the Party.  Surveys show a sizeable group of Republican voters remain opposed to the Trump candidacy either because they don't think he can win the White House against Clinton or because they don't believe his proclaimed support for a variety of conservative positions that most Republicans adhere to.     Case at point.  Years ago Trump said her strongly supported abortion rights but he now tells voters he's pro-life.    Some are saying Trump's transformation on the issue is "a conversion of convenience".     What will they do?

Whatever, the race is becoming interesting.

Updated ... With Trump winning the Nevada caucuses the delegate count for the Republicans now stands as Trump 81, Cruz and Rubio 17 apiece, Kasich 6 and Carson 4.  

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

The fairy dust is fading. Thinking Republicans are just coming to terms with fact that this egotist will have access to the big red button......sweet dreams.

Lord egbut

Anonymous said...

I like Trumps brashness and winding up the media.

The concern I have with him is I believe he is as shallow as a bird bath and am not sure if presented with a curly or complex situation that he has the intellect and character to make good long term decisions.

Though a mirror opposite he is very similar to Obama in many ways - I would hope that Rubio or Cruz cuts the mustard.

Cheers
Jimmie

Anonymous said...

Trump has the political elites worried and that can only be good for people who do not need their lives micro managed by political elites and their annoying minions. Still a worry though that he's the best they can come up with. Shrillery would be worse - how can anyone think she's suitable for anything except prison is a mystery to me.

3:16

Anonymous said...

Bit early for claiming Trump. After April it may be firm enough but also in November there may be no clear winner. My chocolate fish is on the clown not been there.

The Veteran said...

Surely America deserves better than Clinton vs Trump. Is that the BEST they can do?

Anonymous said...


"Whatever, the race is becoming interesting."

Shouldn't that be "unbecoming" ?

Nookin said...

Unless she is in jail, Hillary will be the democratic candidate. Cruz is losing credibility. Trump may make it. He is not making as many gaffes as previously (though he did say that China, with a bit of urging, would make Kim Jong Un (sp?) "disappear". I wonder if his puppeteers are getting him under control?

The establishment right will fall in behind Rubio. At the end of the day they will take no risks in avoiding another Clinton in the White House and will put aside their petty infighting. This will happen the moment the public knows that Sanders hasn't got a prayer.