Wednesday, February 3, 2016

CRISIS ... WOT CRISIS?

According to Labour (aided and abetted by Winston First and the Greens) manufacturing is in crisis.  

According to the Government Statistician manufacturing, in the September 15 quarter rose, 3.5% by volume and 4.2% by value (PR of 8 Dec 15).

According to Mr Little in his 'State of the Nation' speech unemployment was destined to increase.  

According to figures released today unemployment dropped sharply in the last quarter to just 5.3% being the lowest in seven years.    In addition 21,000 new jobs were created while wages rose 0.4% bringing the total increase for the year to 1.6%.   This with the CPI running at 0.1% for 2015.

Memo for the little man ... can we please have some more crises ... please.


13 comments:

Anonymous said...

www.ase.tufts.edu/gdae/Pubs/wp/16-01Capaldo-IzurietaTPP.pdf

Illuminati HIGH PRIST said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Vet, what have you done to deserve your current caravan of weirdos in comments?

I'm feeling all left out.

Anonymous said...

Many thanks to anon 3:26

Exactly in line with historical trade deals with unequal partners and my own experience within Europe.

But because you actually care about debate and free speech you are a weirdo so don't come back as Adolph will get cross and wave his banning stick at you.

Lord Egbut Nobacon

The Veteran said...

Egbut ... wots this thread got to do with the TPPA? Threadjack at your peril.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Vet

You have to expect this from a drongo who doesn't know what a drongo is.

Anonymous said...

Merely replying to Anon 3'26. Just shows you don't read refs supplied.

Lord Egbut

Anonymous said...

Playing with statistics is fraught with pitfalls for anyone silly enough to venture down that path. Manufacturing includes meat and dairy, if you strip that away manufacturing rose 1.9% for the quarter but over two years it rose 0.5% ...Hooray.

The one stat that cannot be hidden is that the unemployment rate was 3.6% in 2007/8 when National come to power. It is now 5.6% and the graphs show that it will climb.

Of course on planet Adolph this is a huge success story.

Lord Egbut the gainfully unemployed.

The Veteran said...

Egbut ... you are being just a tad disingenuous with your use of statistics. Unemployment was not 3.6% when National came to power. The figure for the 2008 year was 4.2% and, over the nine years of Labour (from 2000-2008), unemployment averaged 4.58%. Then came the GFC with unemployment peaking at 6.9% in 2012 and now falling steadily down to 5.3% (not 5.6% your figure) in the last quarter measured ... the figures for the 2008 & 2015 years are December figures so they are constant and not cherrypicked quarters like yours ... but you knew all that didn't you?

Anonymous said...

As I said, play with stats at your peril. I have informed Statistics NZ that their figure of 3.6% end of 2007 is wrong and that you would put them right.

I can't keep up with the goalposts let alone the game. positively turbo charged they are. There is no reason why a reasonable man should believe either you, me or Mr Little.

The only way of judging a countries progress is not by the percentage of new cars sold but by the percentage of people in jail and literacy levels.

Lord Egbut Nobacon

The Veteran said...

Egbut ... National came to power at the end of 2008. The 3.6% 2007 figure is irrelevant although it is part of the mix that produced an average unemployment rate of 4.58% during the period Labour was in power.

There are of course many ways of measuring a countries progress. Another measure might be the World Happiness Index which you can find at http://worldhappiness.report/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2015/04/WHR15_Sep15.pdf It is a comprehensive report incorporating a multitude of indices and not just your cherrypicked two.

There NZL rates 9th out of 158 countries measured ahead of Aust (10th), the USA (15th) and the UK (21st). The bottom country is Togo, 5 below Afghanistan and 2 below Syria, which means it must be a real shit of a place. North Korea doesn't figure. North Korea doesn't do meaningful stats and the people can't talk.

Anonymous said...

"The country's unemployment rate fell to its lowest level in almost seven years, at 5.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015, surprising economists who had forecast an increase to 6.1 percent, from 6 percent in the third quarter. The result came from Statistics New Zealand's household labour force survey, which is regarded as a volatile series. The 0.7 percentage point drop in the unemployment rate was driven by an unexpected decline in the participation rate to 68.4 percent from 68.7 percent three months earlier. By contrast, employment grew 0.9 percent in the quarter for an annual gain of 1.3 percent.

Economists including ASB Bank's Nick Tuffley say it is unusual for the employment rate and the participation rate to move in opposite directions. With no clear reason for a fall in participation, it may reverse in the first quarter of 2016, nudging the unemployment rate up again, they suggest."

The Veteran said...

Anon ... you may be right and the net positive inflow of migrants must have an impact sometime. Nevertheless, the news is to be celebrated ... although Labour will take no pleasure out of it.