Saturday, January 2, 2016

2016 PREDICTIONS

1.   Murray McCully will step down as Foreign Minister.

2,   Annette King will announce her intention not to contest the 2017 election.

3.    Jacinda Ardern will be anointed Labour Deputy Leader.

4.    The NZX50 will crack 7000.

5.    There will be three new cabinet ministers.

6.    David Carter will be announced as replacing Lockwood Smith in London.

7.    Gerry Brownlie will be nominated as the new Speaker.

8.    Judith Collins will move up the cabinet rankings.

9.    Phil Goff will win the Auckland majority although the Council will have a centre-right majority.

10.  David Bain will not receive any compensation monies.

11.  The vote on the new flag may surprise.

....   and in the Far North

12.  It will stop raining in Paihia ... sometime.

13.  John Carter will be re-elected unopposed as FNDC Mayor.

14.  National will select a 'name' candidate to contest the Northland seat.   Peters will not be happy.

and on the world scene

15.  Donald Trump will not be the Republican nominee.

16.  The Republicans will win the Presidency.

17.  Malcolm Turnbull will win the Oz election with a slightly reduced majority.

18.  David Cameron will win a raft of concessions from the EU but there will be serious rifts in both the Conservative Party and (to a lessor extent) the Labour Party over the EU referendum campaign.

19.  The price of oil will remain historically low.

20.  Afghanistan will remain what it always has been ... a shifting set of alliances between clans and warlords and a graveyard for outside interference.


8 comments:

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Well done, Vet.

Here are are three more, albeit possibly wishful thinking..

Tony Abbott will be brought back into cabinet.

Meteria Turei will be rolled (Ugh!) as Co-Leader of the Greens.

The Greens will beat Labour in at least one of the major political opinion polls.

pdm said...

I like 8 and 10 Vet.

Adolf it is hard to see your number 3 happening and as far as your number 2 is concerned who would want to roll with her?

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

pdm

Indeed

Noel said...

19 is bold at this point.
It's probably between Hillary and Jeb.
Both heaps of money to throw at it, upsides and downsides for their supporters but the alure of the first woman President versus family background will make it a close race.
If it's Hillary she will have Merkel to thank for the over throw of traditional resistance.

Andrew Berwick said...

14. National will select a 'name' candidate to contest the Northland seat. Peters will not be happy.

I doubt it: National aren't that dumb. Peters holds grudges and NZF is still around 9-10%, so there's little hope of another decapitation. National could win 45% and still go down to an unconstitutional undemocratic "coalition of the losers" if NZF+Greens+Labour+Maori makes it over about 47%. More likely they put up a "David Seymour" against Peters with a good list position - someone young, female, Maori, liberal, with a pony-tail --- and keep Peters sweet for a coalition.

Fact is: super-bludgers who hate Liberalism, Euthanasia, Gay Marriage, the New Flag, Benefit Raises, Going Soft on Crims, and all the rest want someone to vote for. Conservatives are dead, and have always been a wasted vote. ACT is for basically all of that (yes "death panels", yes "benefit rises", and yes "soft on crims"). Winston is against a lot of that John Key Crap.




15. Donald Trump will not be the Republican nominee.

Oh God I Hope NOT - it's so hard to see anyone stopping him now. TRUMP/CRUZ would be pretty good for me, or TRUMP/CARLY. Either should wipe out Hitllery (unless of course the Dems Voter Fraud manages to skew the vote again).
We NEED the Wall. We NEED TO deport* the undocumented, the undesirables, the crims, and ideally the liberals too.
and we NEED finally to solve the middle east and russian problems at any cost. TRUMP will do that.

Anonymous said...

Not sure about 20. My cousin was a nurse way back when I was young and spent a lot of time in Afghanistan. It was her favorite place in the world (and she was widely travelled). More recently missionary aquaintances returned having been involved in teaching women to be more self sufficient in various ways that do not attract attention of the Islamic police. Many middle aged women, when they trusted you, showed old photos of themselves wearing the latest western clothes and proved they were university graduates. I guess the tribal bickering you could live with but then Islam strutted its stuff, returned to a purer form and we now have a shambles worse than before.

3:16

Al said...

The veteran: You may be right about Trump not being the republican nominee. However, one does not need to be a rocket scientist to work out that if he or Cruz are not the nominee, the Republicans cannot win the white house due to the fact that the conservative base, which is huge, will not turn out to vote. The Republican base are fed up with the Republican establishment. This current election cycle could well see the founding of a third party on the American political scene as large numbers of voters have had enough of the Washington cartel.

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy said...

One must be careful Adolph. I have been discombobulated from Whaleoil for expressing my admiration for that unknown person who was capable of drinking sufficient beer so as to make Meteria attractive enough to be groped in the back of a Taxi.